North Korea’s Nuclear Advance

North Korea may have miniaturized warhead - “South Korea has determined that North Korea is capable of mounting a nuclear warhead on its medium-range Rodong ballistic missile, which could reach all of South Korea and most of Japan, a senior government official said on Tuesday. The government’s assessment, shared in a background briefing with foreign news media representatives in Seoul, followed a recent claim by North Korea that it had ‘standardized’ nuclear warheads small enough to be carried by ballistic missiles,” reports Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times.

--“Some nongovernmental analysts in South Korea have said that they believe the North has learned how to fit its medium-range Rodong missile with nuclear warheads. The senior government official... did not say if the North had actually built such a warhead or simply had the technology to do so, but said the government did not have any evidence that the North had actually fitted miniaturized warheads onto a missile.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1qvXX8p

See also - “N.Korean submarine attempts to test-fire ballistic missile: MBN,” by J.H. Ahn for NK News. http://bit.ly/1UKuWSY

North Korea is serious about the bomb - “South Korea claims that North Korea has miniaturized a nuclear warhead to fit on the tip of a missile… There is no hard proof of a functioning nuclear warhead. But the circumstantial evidence is now overwhelming… ‘Our studied skepticism of North Korea’s capabilities is not in our long-term interest,’ says [Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute],” writes Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione for the Huffington Post.

--“Ignoring North Korea has not worked. Sanctioning North Korea has not worked. Trying to get China to solve the problem for us has not worked... As odious as it may seem, it is time to re-engage with the regime… My colleague Philip Yun [writes], ‘a multilateral diplomatic approach that addressed some of its strategic interests has a chance of at least freezing activity.’ We must stop North Korea before they demonstrate, beyond doubt, that they have a fully functioning nuclear-armed missile.” Full article here. http://huff.to/1WdfUVn

See also - “Next Stop, Pyongyang? Obama's Diplomatic Trifecta,” by Eric Terzuolo in the National Interest. http://bit.ly/1VbpOY6

Video - Watch Kelsey Davenport analyze North Korea’s nuclear capabilities on CNN. http://cnn.it/1S50KSi

Slush fund folly - “A tidal wave of costly strategic nuclear modernization programs are bearing down on the defense budget over the next couple of decades, just when the services and members of Congress are anxious to take advantage of a now-rising defense budget to buy additional conventional (or, non-nuclear) military hardware. Maintaining and modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal over the next 30 years, according to the Center for Non-Proliferation Studies will cost nearly $1 trillion,” write Gordon Adams and Richard Sokolsky for Defense One.

--“Not surprisingly, the Navy and Air Force would prefer to pay for nuclear modernization through an increase in their budgets rather than to cut funding for conventional hardware programs. Voilà! The Navy’s proposed National Sea-Based Deterrence Fund, or NSBDF, leaps into existence to solve this problem… This is bad budgeting and bad planning. It would further erode any remaining budgetary discipline at DOD... And instead of using budget constraints to encourage the Pentagon to set priorities and make choices, it sends an all-too-common message to the services to simply request more.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/23eH17R

Forsaking the Iran Deal is dangerous - “The Obama administration warned of dire consequences Tuesday should the next occupant of the Oval Office scrap the Iran nuclear deal. The accord to curb Tehran's program in exchange for sanctions relief has become a popular punching bag on the GOP presidential campaign trail... At a Capitol Hill hearing, a top State Department official pushed back at the Republican criticism in an effort to keep its hard-won implementation on track,” writes Nicole Gaouette for CNN.

--“Under Secretary of State Thomas Shannon told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that if the next president withdraws from the deal, it could be calamitous. ‘Any effort to step away from (the deal) would reopen a Pandora's box in that region that would be hard to close again,’ Shannon said. A decision to exit the deal could trigger Iran's return to its nuclear weapons program, Shannon said, a possibility that many analysts say could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.” Full piece here. http://cnn.it/1qsR8EG

Video - John Kerry stands by the Iran Deal on MSNBC. http://on.msnbc.com/2292Xvi

Tweet - @Cirincione: The senators that wanted to start a war with Iran are still trying. They want to kill every diplomatic engagement. http://apne.ws/1qw5Xqp

Obama’s nuclear defeat - “President Obama claims undue credit for progress toward eliminating nuclear dangers,” writes Barry Blechman in the National Interest. “In fact, in nearly eight years, his administrations have taken only a few small steps toward limiting these risks, while launching a nuclear weapons modernization program of unprecedented scope and expense.”

--“The president’s 2009 speech in Prague committing the United States to seeking the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons excited us all — and garnered him the Nobel Peace Prize. Alas, the president neglected to figure out how this lofty goal was to be achieved… If fully implemented, [Obama’s nuclear weapons plans] will dwarf President Reagan’s nuclear build-up. No, Mr. President, your nuclear record has not been impressive.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1oB69Tt

Video - Watch Derek Johnson speak to act.tv on the need to eliminate nuclear weapons at the Global Zero rally in Washington, D.C., that occurred during the Nuclear Security Summit. http://bit.ly/1XjmfwN

Tweet - @NSquareCollab: ATTN designers: Help stop weapons #proliferation & win $10K in new @InnoCentive @StimsonCenter @NSquare challenge: http://bit.ly/23cztm1

Kerry to visit Hiroshima - “The US secretary of state, John Kerry, will become the highest-ranking American official to pay tribute to the victims of the first nuclear attack in history when he visits the peace memorial park in Hiroshima next month. Japan’s government ended weeks of speculation with the announcement that Kerry and other G7 foreign ministers will lay flowers at a cenotaph to the victims on the sidelines of their summit in the western Japanese city next week,” writes Justin McCurry for The Guardian.

--“Officials from Japan and the US may wait to gauge the reception to Kerry’s visit before deciding whether Barack Obama should follow him to Hiroshima during the G7 leader summit in Ise-Shima at the end of May… Obama, who spoke of his desire for a nuclear-free world during a speech in Prague in 2009, has not been to Hiroshima on any of his three visits to Japan as president.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1MV4VxE

Time to end plutonium separation - “Last month, Japan shipped more than 700 pounds of mostly weapons-grade plutonium — enough for about 50 nuclear bombs — to a more secure location in the U.S. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been simultaneously pushing through a law to guarantee funding for a new spent fuel ‘reprocessing’ plant designed to separate hundreds of tons of plutonium for use in reactor fuel,” write Frank von Hippel and Fumihiko Yoshida for The World Post.

--“Meanwhile, China’s new five-year plan includes a proposal to buy a reprocessing plant from France that will separate plutonium that will probably accumulate like Japan’s. And South Korea insists that it should have the same right to separate plutonium as Japan. These plans and desires are troubling. As President Obama said during the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit, ‘We know that just the smallest amount of plutonium — about the size of an apple — could kill hundreds of thousands and spark a global crisis.’” Full article here.
http://huff.to/1Vui4iL

Trump gets schooled on non-proliferation - “According to Donald Trump, the United States should not try so hard to stop nuclear proliferation... We can break down Trump’s assertions into two ideas: Proliferation is inevitable, and it is good for the United States — at least when its allies are the ones going nuclear. What can political science tell us about each of these beliefs? It turns out that both propositions fly in the face of a wide range of recent scholarship,” write Gene Gerzhoy and Nick Miller for the Washington Post.

--“For the past 70 years, through mutually reinforcing policies — including security guarantees, troop deployments, arms sales, nuclear umbrellas and sanctions threats — U.S. administrations from both parties have inhibited nuclear proliferation… International relations scholarship suggests that allied proliferation would have broader negative repercussions. Among these would be declining U.S. influence… Allowing or encouraging proliferation would worsen the ‘American weakness’ that Trump decries.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1oCRrv5

Quick Hits:

--“Russia Relies on ‘Satan’ to Keep New START Data Exchange Numbers Up,” by Greg Thielmann for Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/1qvT2oc

--“This Debate Over a New Cruise Missile Has Gone Nuclear” by Kingston Reif for War on the Rocks. http://bit.ly/1XgSZqs

--“Air Force restructuring nuclear officer career field,” by Jenn Rowell for Great Falls Tribune. http://gftrib.com/1oFc4qD

--“U.S. Declassifies Highly Enriched Uranium Inventory,” by Steven Aftergood for the Federation of American Scientists. http://bit.ly/1SfEaQK

--“How the Threat of Nuclear Winter Changed the Cold War,” by Jack D'Isidoro and T.J. Raphael for WYNC. http://bit.ly/1qu36Ol

--“Donald Trump vs. Barack Obama on Nuclear Weapons in East Asia,” by Stephen Sestanovich in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1MeL2lp

--“The Threat of Nuclear Weapons Is Greater Today Than It Was During the Cold War,” by James Carden for The Nation. http://bit.ly/1oFi6r7

--“Senators slam new directive on aid for sick US nuclear workers,” by Rob Hotakainen for McClatchyDC. http://bit.ly/1NaSw3s

Events:

--“Is the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Worth a Trillion Dollars?” With Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. April 13 from 12:00 to 2:00 p.m. at Princeton University, 221 Nassau St., Second Floor Conference Room, Princeton, NJ. http://bit.ly/1mpMvbO

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on Ballistic Missile Defense Policies and Programs, with Robert Scher, Assistant Secretary of Defense; Adm. William Gortney, Commander, U.S. Northern Command; Vice Adm. James Syring, Missile Defense Agency; and Lt. Gen. David Mann, Commander, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. April 13 at 2:30 p.m. at 222 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/22VTLAb

--“Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future,” featuring Henry Sokolski, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. April 14 at 12:00 p.m. at George Mason University, 118 Founders Hall, 3351 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1q5ue6j

--World premiere of the Bomb at the Tribeca Film Festival. April 23 and 24 at 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m., Gotham Hall, 1356 Broadway, New York. Tickets available online. http://bit.ly/1RsGbK1