Missile Defense Plans Speed Ahead, Capabilities and Threat Lag Behind

On the radar: The “adaptive” part of EPAA; Obama’s new team; Hagel QFRs; Monitoring North Korea; Medvedev on inflexibility; State’s new sanctions chief; India’s SLBM; and North Korean Gulags now on Google Maps.

January 30, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Missile threats and defenses - U.S. missile defense plans in Europe are are speeding ahead at significant budgetary and diplomatic cost, even though Iran - the focus of U.S. missile defense plans - is not expected to have long-range missile capability for the mid-term future.

--”An understanding that the Iranian ICBM threat is less acute than previously depicted dovetails with the growing realization that U.S. strategic defense capabilities are less robust than previously portrayed. A logical response to these developments would be to suspend the deployment of a new, more advanced SM-3 interceptor in the fourth phase of the planned European deployment until the Iranian ICBMs against which it is directed start to materialize,“ writes Greg Thielmann in a new Threat Assessment from the Arms Control Association.

--”If properly communicated to Moscow and Beijing, such a U.S. policy adjustment—a suspension rather than a cancellation—could give Russia and China additional incentives to help restrain Iran’s missile program. It could also open a pathway to progress in negotiating further reductions in Russia’s excessive strategic nuclear forces and reduce the likelihood that China will substantially increase its long-range ballistic missile forces.” Full brief here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/129BAGN

New team, new dynamics - The “steady and mutually reinforcing hand of President Obama's new national security team could help guide our country through these rough waters to achieve a political solution with Iran,” write Amb. WIlliam Leurs, Amb. James Dobbins and Lt. Gen. Frank Kearney in The San Francisco Gate.

--The authors note the potential negative consequences of using military action against Iran. They suggest that the US should pursue a diplomatic solution where Iran would fully abide by its nonproliferation commitments in exchange for the U.S. ratcheting down sanctions. http://bit.ly/VnHHjN

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip or feedback for the editor? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Advanced answers - Read Sen. Chuck Hagel ‘s answers to advance policy questions - all 112 pages of them - before his confirmation hearing tomorrow. Many answers on Iran, arms control, and the nuclear stockpile. (pdf) http://bit.ly/14rU3NH

Monitoring and detection - “With North Korea set to detonate an atomic device the U.N. agency (the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) that detected previous tests says it is in better position than ever to confirm an explosion when it takes place.” Hyung-Jin Kim and George Jahn at AP have the story. http://apne.ws/14vsVhB

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: Newest member in our family of high-end #nuclear blast detectors: seismic station @ French Guiana. Now 287 & counting. http://t.co/zEv4ob1g

Quote - “There are no easy solutions in terms of anti-missile defense. There is no flexibility. We have not changed our previous positions. The U.S. has one opinion, and the Russian Federation, unfortunately, has a different opinion. These positions are not getting any closer,” said Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Sunday in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. Transcript here. http://bit.ly/YEhjIJ

Comings and goings - Amb. Dan Fried will leave his role resettling prisoners from Guantanamo to take the helm as the State Department’s new coordinator for U.S. sanctions. His predecessor Bob Einhorn will stay at State to focus more narrowly on nuclear diplomacy with Iran. Amb. Fried’s portfolio will extend beyond that of his predecessor (primarily Iran, North Korea and Syria) to include all countries subject to U.S. sanctions.

--”Part of the theory is that there are sanctions tucked away all over the place, so you need an office where you can pull it all together and see what works,” a State Department official told Foreign Policy’s Josh Rogin. Full story here. http://owl.li/hgmYU

Rumor quashed - The IAEA, whose inspectors regularly audit Iran’s nuclear facilities, announced that they have not found any evidence of an explosion at Iran’s Fordow facility. The agency’s comments indicate that that its inspectors have been at the site since the rumor of an explosion emerged. Reuters has the full story. http://owl.li/hgoHZ

Tweet - @SangerNYT: IAEA reports inspectors have been to Fordow plant in Iran; no evidence of explosions. Which raises question, how did this story go so far?

ICBM proposal - The Air Force is soliciting proposals for replacing the ground-based leg of the nuclear triad, to enter service in 2025.

--Guidelines: Proposals are to “adopt a 'system-of-systems' approach, covering areas such as the payload delivery vehicle, warhead integration, basing, and nuclear command, control and communications. A modular, open-systems architecture is requested, offering commonality with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), any Prompt Global Strike/Conventional Strike Missile that may enter service, and space launch vehicles. An operational life covering the 2025-2075 timeframe is anticipated. From Janes’. http://bit.ly/129wM4s

India’s SLBM - After successfully test-firing a submarine-launched ballistic missile, India’s defense research organization says the missile - named K-15 - is ready for induction.

--The K-15 is 6.5 meters long, weighs 7 tons, uses solid propellant, and has a range of 700 kilometers with a circular error of probability of 25 meters. From Defense News. http://bit.ly/129wM4s

Events:

--”Iran: Is There Still Time For a Diplomatic Solution?” Amb. William H. Luers, Amb. James Dobbins and Lt. Gen. Frank Kearney. January 30, 12:00 pm PST @ The Commonwealth Club, San Francisco. Details here. http://owl.li/hgvK7

--”Twenty Years of Transformation in South Asia.” Stability of Deterrence in South Asia. January 31, 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. @ the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. http://owl.li/hbQXh

--Confirmation hearing on the nomination of former Sen. Chuck Hagel. January 31, 9:30 a.m. @ Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room SD-G50. http://owl.li/h5Njc

--”Dealing with a Nuclear Iran: Redlines and Deadlines.” Gen. James Cartwright, Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and seven other speakers. February 6, 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. @ CSIS. http://owl.li/hbQKm

--”What to do about Nuclear Outliers Iran and North Korea?” Robert Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Academic Relations and Director of Int. Security Studies, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. February 6, 12:00-1:30 p.m. @ George Washington University. http://owl.li/hbTo6

Dessert:

Mapping the Gulags - Google recently rolled out a detailed map of North Korea that added labels to roads, subway stations, and monuments in the Hermit Kingdom. The new map also includes markers for the North’s several gulags.

--Early Warning editors suggest googling “North Korea Gulag,” but avoid asking for directions. http://bit.ly/VWlXxk