James Baker: Overcoming Challenges, Getting a Good Iran Deal

Consequences and alternatives - “Clearly, much work must be done if there is to be a final agreement by the June 30 deadline,” notes former Secretary James Baker III in a Wall Street Journal op-ed going through issues negotiators need to solve for a final deal.

--“If in the end there is no final agreement—and if the U.S. is seen to be the reason why—we could be in a worse position than we are today, because the United Nations and European Union sanctions would likely be watered down or dropped.”

--“Military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities should remain our last resort, as it would strengthen the hard-liners in Tehran and could have other unfortunate and serious consequences.” http://on.wsj.com/1Ja9MnV

Tweet - @BahmanKalbasi: Obama: If it is perceived that we walked away from a fair #IranDeal, sanctions will frail. Our closest allies will start to question.

Meddling - “By inserting itself directly into the negotiations, Congress risks weakening the United States' negotiating hand and triggering blowback from Iran that could derail the best chance to peacefully resolve the Iranian nuclear dispute,” writes Jamal Abdi in USA Today.

--“The senators who support a diplomatic solution, but pushed hard for [the Corker-Cardin bill], now own this process. A large share of the onus falls on them to ensure Congress does not kill a deal and start a war.” http://usat.ly/1yBiNpX

Tweet - @John_Hudson: Obama repeats that he’ll sign the Corker-Cardin bill so long as no “poison pills” are added on the Senate floor

About that s-300 sale - “We've known about the potential for that system to be sold to Iran for several years and have accounted for it in all of our planning,” General Martin Dempsey, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said yesterday.

-- “The military option that I owe the president to both encourage the diplomatic solution and, if the diplomacy fails, to ensure that Iran doesn't achieve a nuclear weapon, is intact.” Full transcript of the press briefing: http://1.usa.gov/1zmYis3

Concessions - “Iran had to make several compromises in order to get a satisfactory nuclear deal and, in the end, the separation between Iran’s public and private stances is far wider than those of the Obama administration,” Richard Nephew writes in the The National Interest.

--“Has the United States given up too much or has Iran? It is really too soon to tell. The final deal has yet to be negotiated and may still collapse. But, if a deal is reached, it will reflect compromise on both sides and involve concessions that are dearly held at home and ignored as insufficient abroad. This is the nature of diplomacy, as is the outrage of outsiders that negotiators got too little in exchange.” http://bit.ly/1Ondzjx

Countering Putin - “Even if the Russian threats are loose talk to intimidate adversaries or curry favor with nationalists at home, they reflect a cynical disregard for Russia’s post-Cold War role as a partner with America in arms control treaties designed to discourage the spread of nuclear weapons. These threats inevitably raise tensions and could increase the chances of deadly miscalculations.”

--“The Europeans and the United States have to stay united in maintaining sanctions on Russia and in continuing air patrols and training exercises, as it becomes increasingly difficult to predict Mr. Putin’s next move.” From The New York Times editorial board. http://nyti.ms/1GTrY7W

NPT Review - “On the eve of the 2015 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, there is a stalemate on nuclear disarmament issues between the NPT non-nuclear-weapon states and nuclear-weapon states,” writes Lewis Dunn in an analysis for Arms Control Today on the issues facing next month’s NPT conference.

--Recommendations: “Breaking today’s NPT nuclear disarmament stalemate will not be easy. Taken together, the four elements suggested here—a commitment to cooperation, creating a new process of cooperative engagement, agreement to pursue some priority nuclear disarmament building blocks between the 2015 and the 2020 review conferences, and action by the nuclear-weapon states to minimize the risk of nuclear weapons use—are a package that offers one possible way out of that stalemate.” http://bit.ly/1One7WD

Russia’s nukes: numbers and context - Russia currently has 4,500 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 1,780 strategic warheads are deployed on missiles and at bomber bases. That’s a slight increase over last year, due to the deployment of the first Borey-class ballistic missile submarines.

--“Despite the strong commitment to nuclear modernization, however, the effort competes for funding with the modernization of Russia’s general military forces… As a result, parts of the nuclear modernization program will likely be scaled back or delayed in the next defense plan.” Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris with an updated Russian Nuclear Notebook. http://bit.ly/1yBncsZ

After the deal - “We are close to finalizing a deal preventing nuclear weapons in Iran. But let's not stop with just this one agreement.. let’s also ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and seize this golden opportunity to build peace and security.” William Lambers in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1CWvTsT

Tweet - @warisboring: FROM OUR ARCHIVE -- We Just Hunted Down All of Russia’s Long-Range Bombers http://t.co/QMFPnMGzC0

Xi sells subs - “China is likely to conclude a sale of eight conventional submarines during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Islamabad on April 20, more than doubling Pakistan’s fleet. Analysts say it may be the first step in helping Pakistan gain the ability to fire nuclear weapons at sea, keeping pace with rival India,” writes David Tweed at Bloomberg. Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1b4MZPe

Quick Hits:

--“Congress talks nuclear weapons and budgets,” by Jenn Rowell for the Great Falls Tribune. http://gftrib.com/1b4yo6v

--“Obama could ease many Iranian sanctions without Congress,” by Deb Riechmann for AP. http://wapo.st/1NXhhVT

--”Deployment of US missile defense considered for South Korea,” by Matthew Pennington for AP. http://apne.ws/1IRNmem

Events:

--“The Changing Face of Iran: Nuclear Diplomacy and its Implications,” featuring Ali Vaez. April 22, 8:30 to 10:00 London time. Hosted by Chatham House. http://bit.ly/1Hxexts

--“Politics of a Nuclear Deal: Former U.S. & Iranian Officials Debate.” Featuring Stephen J. Hadley, Ali-Akbar Mousavi, Jim Slattery, Howard Berman and Michael Singh. April 20, 9:30-11:00am, U.S. Institute of Peace. Register online. http://bit.ly/19YuB9N

--“The Iran Deal: Delays or Delivery?” A discussion with Joe Cirincione and Dr. Jim Walsh. April 21 at 5:30 pm, The Hampshire House, 84 Beacon St., Boston, MA 02108. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1Imm8ZX

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

In memory - “John Steinbruner, who died on April 16 after a decade-long battle against cancer, was one of the greatest and most important Brookings scholars in the century-long history of our institution,” write Carol Graham and Michael O’Hanlon.

--“He was one of the smartest people we ever knew, and, more importantly, one of the best. Not only will he be missed by us, but the world has lost someone truly irreplaceable. He will live on, however, in his work, through his family, friends, colleagues, and students, and through the standards of excellence that he promoted both at Brookings and at the University of Maryland.” http://brook.gs/1HAAVCb