Iran Talks Head Into Overtime

Mixed signals - Negotiators in Lausanne are expected to issue a statement later today. Whether they will announce a detailed political framework or a broader declaration of understanding remains unclear.

--Iran and Russia’s foreign ministers have said there is agreement on the major elements of a political framework, but British and French officials emphasize that key differences remain, and the U.S. has not commented on the progress of the talks since the negotiations continued past the self-imposed deadline. Laura Rozen reports for Al Monitor from Lausanne. http://bit.ly/1DtcyVF

--Key quote, from British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond: “I think we have a broad framework of understanding but there are still some key issues that have to be worked through. Some of them are quite detailed and technical so there is still quite a lot of work to do, but we are on it now and we’ll keep going at it.”

Swing state poll - By a margin of 4-1 or higher, voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania prefer a diplomatic agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program over military intervention, according to a new poll by Quinnipiac University. Full results: http://bit.ly/1EsjofA

Interpreting a deal - “The Deal with Iran: Five Arguments to Watch Out For” by Gary Sick in LobeLog. http://bit.ly/19F6f5c

Budget gimmicks - “As the GOP fights an internal political battle with budget gimmicks, the Pentagon is building real hardware it does not need, choking off needed investments in conventional weapons that we might actually use,” write Ploughshares Fund’s Tom Collina and Will Saetren in Defense News. “There is no justification for increased spending on nuclear weapons, which do not address the highest priority threats we face.” http://bit.ly/1MA91ux

Tweet - @CarlRobichaud: .@Max_Fisher interviews @ArmsControlWonk on #IranTalks: What everyone gets wrong about Iran nuclear negotiations. http://t.co/w2f23CSSyh

Schumer’s political jam - One early test for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), slated to replace Sen. Harry Reid as the next Democratic Leader, is where Sen. Schumer positions himself on diplomacy with Iran.

--Will he side with the President and Democratic Caucus on leaving space for nuclear talks to succeed or will he continue to side with a coalition of Republicans, skeptics and hawks in pressuring and undermining the talks? Manu Raju and John Bresnahan look into the tricky political position Schumer is in and what it means for Congress’ reaction to an Iran deal. http://politi.co/1Du4JPl

China’s plans, calculations - “China is modernizing its nuclear arsenal in response to continuing U.S. efforts to further advance both nuclear and conventional military technologies,” writes Gregory Kulacki.

--“Although both countries claim to remain committed to the long-term goal of nuclear disarmament, they are both engaged in a technological competition that keeps pushing that goal farther into the future.” Full analysis on China’s modernization plans at All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/1IQpjcU

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Ever lose your keys? The US has lost at least 11 #nuclear weapons. Read more from Harvard's Belfer Center: http://t.co/RW0mh5taoe

Next step for nuclear security - Gift basket diplomacy - multilateral, voluntary commitment-making that supplements broad statements with practical, near-term objectives - may be the key to continuing progress on nuclear security after the summit process ends.

--“Gift-basket diplomacy has already achieved results,” write Michelle Cann, Kelsey Davenport and Jenna Parker in The Bulletin. “[This approach] could accomplish even more at the next summit in 2016—and leave an enduring legacy.” http://bit.ly/1aiSlqp

Stability in South Asia - As India, Pakistan and China deploy more nuclear weapons at sea in the Indian Ocean, the U.S. can play a key role in stabilization, writes David Brewster in the National Interest.

--“In the 1980s, Washington helped construct India's only facility for communications with submerged nuclear submarines and the U.S. might again support India's maritime nuclear capabilities. It might even be in Washington's interests to help Pakistan. The establishment of reliable communications links with Pakistan's nuclear-armed submarines could, for example, be critical in stabilizing the India-Pakistan nuclear dynamic.” http://bit.ly/1BQyfKO

The other part of the NPT - “While the world is focused on the nonproliferation requirements of a country with zero bombs, keep in mind the promises that remain unfulfilled from those countries with 9,835 of bombs, as well as the four countries that are nuclear outliers.” CFR’s Micah Zenko puts Iran’s nuclear program in context. http://on.cfr.org/1aiNSUD

Quick hits:

--“Congressmen question validity of MOX study,” Derrek Asberry for the Aiken Standard. http://bit.ly/1C8ezB1

--“John Bolton: Not 'so important' for Congress to approve Iran deal,” Martin Matishak for The Hill. http://bit.ly/1BQtLnm

--“The big questions any nuclear deal with Iran has to answer,” Ishaan Tharoor for the Washington Post. http://wapo.st/19E10mn

Events:

--“Paths to Disarmament: The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative.” Featuring John Loretz, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, and Martin Fleck, Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR). April 2 from 8:00-9:00 PM EST. Online webinar sponsored by PSR. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1Oek3Ur

--“Framework for a Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement with Iran.” Featuring Clifford Kupchan, Eurasia Group; Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association; and John Limbert, U.S. Naval Academy. April 3 at 10:00 AM. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1ErWdBX

--“The Fate of South Africa’s Nuclear Material.” Featuring Douglas Birch, R. Jeffrey Smith, Matthew Bunn, Thomas Wheeler and Togzhan Kassenova. April 6 from 9:00 AM – 11:00 AM EST. Hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Located at 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC. Register online. http://ceip.org/1yjihqR

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget. With Frank Klotz, Administrator, NNSA; and four other witnesses. April 15 at 2:30 PM. Located at 222 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington Dc. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1FLDB07

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

Dessert:

And Bill Murray as Javad Zarif - “With the talks nearing the witching hour Tuesday, many [diplomats and reporters] in Lausanne were beginning to tire of living in such close proximity and the feverish speculation,” writes Jo Biddle for AFP.

--"I feel like I'm in a Wes Anderson movie," said one American reporter. http://yhoo.it/1OZklPj