Iran Negotiations Continue to Make Progress and Confound Skeptics

April 28, 2014 | Edited by Geoff Wilson

Worth the risk - “With three months to go before the July deadline for a final agreement, Iran and the six major powers are still searching for ways to resolve differences over Iran’s nuclear program,” writes The New York Times editorial board. “Even so, the negotiations keep confounding skeptics by making steady progress and showing that investing in this process is worth the risk.”

--“The most alarming feature of Iran’s nuclear program has been its ability to enrich uranium to 20 percent purity, which is a short technological hop to the higher level needed for nuclear bomb-grade fuel.” But, “on Jan. 20, Iran stopped enriching uranium to 20 percent under an interim agreement reached in November with the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany that has effectively frozen the nuclear program. Earlier this month, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran had gone further and reduced the stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium by nearly 75 percent. Another potential bright spot is a proposal by Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, to redesign Iran’s heavy water reactor near Arak to use low enriched uranium and limit the amount of plutonium the facility can produce.”

--“Meanwhile, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization has hinted it may finally come clean on the country’s past nuclear activities, which international inspectors believe involved weapons-related pursuits. Transparency could go a long way toward building trust between Iran and the West.” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has “firmly committed Iran to ‘prudent moderation’ and to fostering peace and security. A durable nuclear agreement is an important first step in fulfilling that promise.” Read the full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1mRgFTF

Optimism - “Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Sunday he saw a good chance for a nuclear deal with the West because ‘most Iranians’ were in favor of it, playing down resistance from Islamic hardliners,” Reuters reports. He continued by saying that “Some factions have no interest in reaching an agreement due to political reasons, but what counts at the end is the vote of the majority of Iranian people.” He added that, “Mr Rouhani is acting on a popular mandate and I am sure Iranians will accept any deal that would respect their rights and legitimate demands." Read the full report here. http://reut.rs/1flgHB4

Working for peace, promoting security - “A senior U.S. official signaled optimism on Sunday about a possible resolution of the Iranian nuclear dispute but said Washington remained concerned that Iran's ballistic missiles threatened Gulf Arab states,” Praveen Menon and Rania El Gamal report for Reuters. “Frank Rose, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for space and defense policy, said Washington was ‘acutely’ aware of Gulf Arab states' anxieties about Iran and wanted to help them launch a Gulf-wide coordinated missile defense capability.”

--Speaking to reporters in Abu Dhabi, Rose said that “We are optimistic that we'll have a successful resolution of the Iran nuclear issue... but that doesn't downgrade our concern about Iran's other bad behaviors, specifically their support for terrorism as well as their continued development of ballistic missile capabilities. As long as Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles that can threaten the United States or deployed forces and our friends and allies in the region, we will work effectively with our partners here in the UAE as well as the rest of the Gulf to defend against that threat." Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1nyGUOW

The opposite of disarmament - “The United States said on Friday it was examining lawsuits filed by the Marshall Islands against it and eight other nuclear-armed countries that accuse them of failing in their obligation to negotiate nuclear disarmament,” David Brunnstrom reports for Reuters. “The Marshall Islands filed the lawsuits on Thursday in the United States and The Hague. The tiny republic in the Pacific Ocean was used for U.S. nuclear tests in the 1950s. The U.S. State Department, however, defended the U.S. record on disarmament and said its stockpile of nuclear arms had been cut by 80 percent since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the NPT, took effect in 1970.”

--The State Department said in a statement that "the U.S. is dedicated to achieving the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons, consistent with our obligations under the (NPT). We have a proven track record of pursuing a consistent, step-by-step approach to nuclear disarmament - the most recent example being the New START Treaty." Supporters of the suit responded by saying that, “the United States plans to spend an estimated $1 trillion on nuclear weapons in the next three decades and currently possesses nearly half of the world's 17,300 warheads.” Laurie Ashton, a lawyer for the Marshall Islands said that, “the United States is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to modernize its nuclear weapons, which is the opposite of disarmament. Partial reductions to nuclear stockpiles don't matter if we're designing and building new weapons to take their place." Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1k41Bfd

Successful test - “India successfully test-fired a new anti-ballistic missile on Sunday in a step towards developing a missile defense system which only an elite club of countries has built,” the AFP reports. “India, which shares borders with arch-rival Pakistan and giant China, both of whom are nuclear-armed, is developing the system that aims to shield it against a ballistic missile attack. The missile, which was tested at Wheeler Island off the coast of Orissa, is capable of intercepting targets outside the earth’s atmosphere.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1isW5Ht

Foul mouthed - “North Korea’s committee for peaceful reunification with South Korea, an official mouthpiece, has not been espousing peace lately, and its mouth has turned foul,” Choe Sang-Hun reports for The New York Times. “Offensive language is not unprecedented from North Korea, where the use of extreme insults against perceived enemies is standard practice. But the latest invective, laced with misogynic themes [targeted towards South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye], was contained in an official statement from a North Korean government entity that presumably promotes reconciliation.”

--“It also came amid fears that after several months of a relative lull on the divided Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang might raise tensions again by conducting another nuclear test. In the past several days, South Korean officials and American experts have reported heightened activities in an underground nuclear test site in northeastern North Korea. Ms. Park and Mr. Obama urged the North to give up its nuclear weapons development, warning that a new nuclear test would only lead to harsher international sanctions… The summit meeting convinced North Korea that it ‘must settle its final scores with the U.S. through an all-out nuclear showdown,’ the North Korean committee said.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1fJy7C4

Resolute - “President Barack Obama warned North Korea on Saturday that the United States ‘will not hesitate to use our military might’ to defend allies, as he sought to showcase U.S. power in the region amid… Pyongyang’s unpredictable nuclear threats,” reports Julie Pace for the AP. In a speech to some of the 28,000 American service personnel stationed in South Korea, Obama said that “the commitment that the United States of America has made to the security of the Republic of Korea only grows stronger in the face of aggression. Our alliance does not waiver with each bout of their attention seeking. It just gains the support of the rest of the world.’’

--“The website 38 North, which closely monitors North Korea, said commercial satellite imagery from Wednesday showed increased movement of vehicles and materials near what are believed to be the entrances to two completed tunnels at Punggye-ri nuclear test site. The movements could be preparations for an underground atomic explosion, although predicting underground tests is notoriously difficult.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1flsjUB

Analysis - “Satellite images taken on Wednesday include hints that North Korea may be preparing to detonate multiple nuclear devices at once,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “Pyongyang has warned repeatedly in recent weeks that it is prepared to conduct a ‘new’ kind of atomic test. The detected movement around two different tunnels at the Punggye-ri test site could mean North Korean personnel are placing atomic devices in each tunnel, though that is by no means certain.”

--“Another way that North Korea could implement its threat of a new kind of nuclear test would be to detonate -- for the first time -- a device fueled by highly enriched uranium, instead of the plutonium it has used in the past, experts say.” An image analysis for 38 North “also detected the presence of likely command-and-control vehicles at Punggye-ri's Main Support Area that could have been brought over to supply secure communications between the test site and other parts of North Korea. He notes that "similar vehicles were spotted in the area" shortly before the country carried out its last nuclear explosion in February 2013.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1mRlOsi

Quick-hits:

--“Iran minister: Don’t miss chance in nuclear talks” by the AP. http://wapo.st/1tUMeO8

--“Report: Faulty phone, ‘ancient’ equipment at missile command” by Kyle Balluck for The Hill. http://bit.ly/1nVQskc

--“This North Korea Nuclear Test Would Be Different: Provocative action during President Barack Obama’s visit could produce irreversible escalation” by Paul D. Shinkman for US News. http://bit.ly/1fJCo8t

--“An Intercontinental Ballistic Missile by any Other Name: Has Russia broken its pledge not to test medium-range nukes? The answer isn’t as clear as you might think” by Jeffrey Lewis for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1nxcRXG

--“Be Afraid: China Can’t Control North Korea” by Gordon G. Chang for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1tV3h2q

Events:

--“The United States and Iran: Can Diplomacy Prevent an Iranian Bomb?” Discussion with former Amb. Thomas Pickering and Shaul Bakhash. April 28 from 6:00-7:15 at American University, Abramson Family Founders Room, 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1eEMAyC

--“The Future of the Russian-American Dialogue after the Ukrainian Crisis,” Discussion with Feodor Voitolovsky, Russian Academy of Sciences. Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lpiNzN

--House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, markup of its portion of the defense authorization bill, H.R. 4435, which includes the nuclear weapons programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. Noon. 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington. Webcast here. http://1.usa.gov/1m1RcaH