The Iran Deal After the Election

The post-election Iran deal - “With every presidential debate this year, Americans are reminded that the Iran nuclear deal remains as controversial as ever. Iranians, too, are watching the election, dreading the potential consequences for the deal — and for their country’s future,” writes Ariane Tabatabai for The New York Times. “Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif of Iran have developed a good working relationship... These channels are one of the greatest achievements of the nuclear talks and key to the deal’s success, allowing two adversaries to finally settle disputes diplomatically.”

--“Unless these means of dialogue are sustained, hiccups could turn into bigger crises, ultimately undoing the improvement in relations — and the nuclear deal... To protect them, the United States and Iran should institutionalize their relationship. Without formalizing these relationships and ensuring that they can survive changes in government, the deal won’t produce the optimal effect each side seeks: allowing Iran’s economy to recover while ensuring Tehran doesn’t acquire a nuclear weapon.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/2e9Hnsc

See also - “New Paper Advises Obama Successor to Take Risks with Iran” by Barbara Slavin for The Atlantic Council’s IranInsight. http://bit.ly/2em9jbB

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Fact Check: The Iran Nuclear Agreement prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. And it's working. #debate

Fact-checking the debate - Nuclear weapons came up throughout last night’s Presidential debate. For a fact-checking of nuclear weapons issues, including the New START Treaty and the US’s nuclear umbrella, see this link, from ABC News. http://abcn.ws/2ekcCjI

The $9.5 billion bomb - “The life-extension program for the B61-12 atomic bomb will cost just over $8.25 billion, according to a new estimate from the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA),” writes Aaron Mehta for Defense News. “That cost does not include the estimated $1.3 billion that the Department of Defense plans to spend on developing and procuring tailkits for the weapons. With that included, the total cost for the program sits at roughly $9.5 billion.”

--Kingston Reif of the Arm Control Association commented, “The progress on the B61 mod 12 also reinforces the excessive redundancy associated with planning to buy a new fleet of nuclear air-launched cruise missiles and refurbish the warhead that will arm the missile fleet, an effort estimated to cost roughly $20-$25 billion.” Full breakdown of the costs here. http://bit.ly/2dRhNoS

Tweet - @mariashriver: 4 minutes. 4 minutes and nuclear weapons go. That sticks in my mind. Calm decision making. #debatenight

Obama’s nuclear choice before 2017 - “The White House is considering what concrete steps President Obama could take to change US nuclear weapons policy and reduce the risks of nuclear weapons before he leaves office,” writes Lisbeth Gronlund for Union of Concerned Scientists’ The Equation. “Still on the table: cutting the US arsenal and stockpiles of weapon-usable materials... The US has some 4,500 nuclear weapons on land-based missiles, on submarine-based missiles, waiting to be loaded on airplanes, and in storage. On top of that there are some 2,500 weapons in the dismantlement queue.”

--“The US could cut the current arsenal by at least 1,850 weapons, while still meeting current Pentagon requirements... President Obama should: Reduce the number of deployed strategic US nuclear weapons by roughly 550, leaving 1,200—a level that the administration has already determined is sufficient to maintain US deterrence; Reduce the number of strategic weapons in the hedge by roughly 1,000, leaving 1,250; [and] Eliminate the hedge of 320 tactical weapons.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2ei7axz

Another Musudan dud - “North Korea test-fired a missile that failed immediately after launch early on Thursday, the U.S. and South Korean militaries said, hours after the two countries agreed to step up efforts to counter the North's nuclear and missile threats. The missile was believed to be an intermediate-range Musudan and was launched from the western city of Kusong, where the isolated state attempted but failed to launch the same type of missile on Saturday,” writes Ju-min Park and Eric Walsh for Reuters.

--In response to North Korea’s recent missile test, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said that allies will utilize "all tools in the toolkit" to protect South Korea. “A U.S. aerospace expert, John Schilling, said this week in a report on the 38 North project that despite the failures, the pace of testing could enable the North to put the Musudan missile into operational service sometime next year.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/2enmeZW

U.S. reconfirms deterrent pledge - “The United States warned Wednesday that any attack on American allies or use of nuclear weapons by North Korea would be met with an ‘overwhelming’ U.S. response as it sought to reassure close ally South Korea that the U.S. has its back,” writes Matthew Pennington for The Washington Post.

--“’The U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea is unwavering. This includes our commitment to provide extended deterrence, guaranteed by the full spectrum of U.S. defense capabilities... Make no mistake, any attack on America or our allies will not only be defeated, but any use of nuclear weapons will be met with an overwhelming and effective response,” SecDef Ash Carter said in opening remarks. Full story here. http://wapo.st/2dqdgNR

Japan’s no-first-use debate - “The New York Times reported that President Barack Obama was unlikely to declare a nuclear ‘no first use (NFU)’ policy for the United States when he took the stage for the United Nations General Assembly. After making it known to the public that he was considering NFU and a number of other nuclear weapons changes since his historic May 2016 visit to Hiroshima, the authors of the Times article show that the possible reactions of allies such as Japan may have played a role in tempering Obama's ambitions regarding these policies in the final months of his administration.”

--“Just looking at the complexity of the Japanese debate regarding NFU, I can assertively reach one definite conclusion. There is a plenty of room for Japan to accept and welcome potential policy changes to the current U.S. nuclear declaratory policy. However, this will require extensive work and consultations across the Pacific that have not been conducted since the White House first indicated through the media and think tanks in Washington that it was considering NFU or other policy changes.” Full story here. https://goo.gl/OzyxP3

Tweet - @GlobalZero: #IranDeal good for scientific coop btwn US & Iran. This benefits Iranian ppl, builds trust says @ArianeTabatabai. http://bit.ly/2eAIanM

India commissions nuclear sub - “The Indian Navy has commissioned the country’s first domestically developed and built ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN), the INS Arihant, in complete secrecy in August,” writes Franz-Stefan Gady for The Diplomat. “With the commissioning of the Arihant, India has joined the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China in operating SSBNs.”

--“The INS Arihant is primarily a technological demonstrator, based on the Russian Project 971 Akula I-class nuclear-powered attack submarines, rather than a fully operational SSBN... India has a nuclear warfare policy centered on a No First-Use (NFU) doctrine. ‘As a result, New Delhi needs to field a credible second-strike capability’” which is what the INS Arihant is intended to be. Full story here. http://bit.ly/2dzrmLp

Quick Hits:

--“Australia will not support negotiations to outlaw nuclear weapons” by Ben Doherty for The Guardian. http://bit.ly/2dsx3HP

--“Russian parliament approves suspension of plutonium accord with U.S.,” by Maria Tsvetkova for Reuters. http://reut.rs/2erI3WP

--“Draft UN resolution to ban nuclear weapons in 2017,” from International campaign to abolish nuclear weapons. http://bit.ly/2e9N5KD

--“Pakistan’s Choice,” by Michael Krepon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/2eluPuG

--“US, South Korea Tightening Alliance to Counter Nuclear Threat from North,” by Steve Herman for Voice of America. http://bit.ly/2dPaZId

Events:

--“Able Archer 83: The Secret History,” presentation by Nate Jones. October 20 at 3:00pm in the Wilson Center’s 6th Floor Moynihan Board Room. Full details here. http://bit.ly/2e4cOBK

--“Books at Wilson: Deterring Nuclear Terrorism,” by Robert Litwak and panel discussion on October 21 at 10:00am, in the Wilson Center’s 6th Floor Moynihan Board Room. Full details here. http://bit.ly/2ehDHSV

--“Book Launch: My Journey at the Nuclear Brink," with William Perry, former Defense Secretary on October 24 at 7:00 p.m., at All Souls Unitarian Church, 1157 Lexington Ave., New York. http://bit.ly/2dbK499