How to Watch the Iran Talks: Reserve Judgement and Read Between the Lines

Popcorn theatre - “The Iran nuclear talks are about to be declared a success or a failure,” writes Fred Kaplan for Slate. “Officials on the various sides will play up each step toward resolution as a monumental triumph and each step backward as catastrophic. TV newscasts, eager for scoops and drama, will hype these hopes and qualms. Here is a guide on how to watch and interpret the theatrics.”

--“First, if the Tuesday deadline passes without a deal, that means nothing.” Since the first interim accord was signed in November 2013, the negotiating parties have extended deadlines twice, “and they’re likely to extend this one, too. This is how all negotiations work: No country (or labor union, corporation, or whatever entity) surrenders its final bargaining points, or keeps trying to eke concessions from the other side, until it absolutely has to.”

--“Second, if one side walks out or glumly tells reporters that things look bad, that might mean something—but probably not.” Right before the last deadline in April, “reports circulated that the talks had collapsed... And then, all of a sudden, the negotiators emerged with a framework of an agreement that was far more detailed and restrictive than anyone had predicted.” Get the full scoop here. http://slate.me/1SQRgqy

Tweet - @marieharf: P5+1 and Iran have decided to extend JPOA measures until July 7 to allow more time for negotiations to reach a long-term solution #IranTalks

Mandate - Speaking to reporters in Vienna on Tuesday Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif said that the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program “had reached a ‘very sensitive stage’ but that progress was possible... ‘I already had a mandate to negotiate and I am here to get a final deal and I think we can.’” Full story from the AP here. http://bit.ly/1LA86I2

All talk and no trousers- “The criticism of the pending nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is intensifying,” writes Trita Parsi for CNN. “Opponents of the deal will spend millions of dollars on ads pushing the U.S. public and Congress to kill the deal in the next few days. But while a fortune already has been spent on nit-picking the ongoing talks, virtually nothing has been invested in developing an alternative, viable solution to limit Iran's nuclear activities.”

--“The reality is that the opponents of the deal don't have a solution, they only have criticism. And for many, the real value of the nuclear deal has been lost amid the barrage of condemnation surrounding the talks. It's worthwhile to remind ourselves why this deal is so important -- and why it would be a strategic mistake of Iraq War proportions to let this opportunity slip out of our hands.” Most importantly, the deal “will prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb,” and “it will prevent a disastrous war with Iran.” Full piece here. http://cnn.it/1RQ079t

What, not why - Iran is likely reluctant to explain its nuclear past “because it believes that it could satisfy the IAEA only by ‘fessing up’ and admitting it had a nuclear weapon program. As desirable as an Iranian confession would be, there’s little prospect of one... Fortunately, American interests and those of its friends, including Israel, do not require Iran to confess; rather, they demand that the IAEA obtain a detailed understanding of what Iran did, not why Iran did it.” Full analysis by James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace here. http://bit.ly/1ee3R7R

Tweet - @Cirincione: Best article this week on nukes: "It seems the Pentagon can never have enough deployed nuclear warheads" http://wapo.st/1LFS4gN

Loopholes - “Of the 185 non-nuclear weapons state parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), nearly all countries with significant nuclear infrastructure have concluded safeguards agreements permitting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify that they are not producing or diverting plutonium and uranium for weapons. But the NPT doesn’t expressly ban states from doing the math and science and engineering needed to “weaponize” nuclear material into an explosive device.

--“Iran’s nuclear history rightly prompts the conclusion that the definition of what is a nuclear “peaceful use” is too broad. Iran could itself contribute to correcting this by pledging not to engage in specific activities critical to nuclear arms-making. Such a commitment might thereafter be accepted by other non-nuclear weapon states as a contribution to a world without nuclear proliferation.” Read the full piece by Mark Hibbs in The National Interest here. http://bit.ly/1LFLWVR

Quick Hits:

--“Don’t Fear Iran’s Impending Windfall,” by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj for LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1C539Fh

--“End Game for Iran Nuclear Negotiations,” by Barbara Slavin for Voice of America. http://bit.ly/1T1iJpz

Events:

--“The meaning of Russia’s nuclear threats,” featuring Pavel Baev, Hans Kristensen and Ambassador Steven Pifer. Wednesday, July 8 from 2:30 - 4:00 PM. Located at The Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://brook.gs/1JoPaK7

--“The Iran Deal and its Consequences,” featuring Kelsey Davenport, Kenneth Katzman, Clifford Kupcham and John Limbert. Thursday, July 9 from 2:00 - 3:30 PM. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1LAeGhE

-- “The Endgame: Who Got What From the Iran Talks?,” featuring Olli Heinonen, Robin Wright, Ilan Goldenberg and Joe Cirincione. Monday, July 13 from 9:30 - 11:00 AM. Located at The U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dt11ey

-- “Strategic Challenges and Responses: Nuclear, BMD and Emerging Technologies,” featuring Tom Karako and James Acton. Tuesday, July 14 from 8:00 - 9:00 AM. Located at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First St., Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1HsnDYH

Dessert:

Fun in a nuclear wasteland - “Video games are huge business, sales of electronic entertainment have surpassed movies, books and television for several years now. But more than that, video games are art. The medium possesses the unique ability to transport a player to another world completely… That’s what Fallout does best — it’s a 20-year-old video game franchise that helped the MTV generation understand, mock and control its elders’ Cold War paranoia.

--“Fallout is set in a post-apocalyptic world as conceived by American 1950s Defense Department propagandists. It’s a world in which the grandchildren of the Cold War conjured the fear of the previous generation and dispelled that fear by turning it into a playground. The art and propaganda posters from the era still litter the wastes. The world of America before the last war is a Leave It to Beaver Hellscape — an America that never existed save in the fevered imagination of conservative pundits.

--“But play the games long enough and you’ll realize that the nostalgia masks a dark history. One where the Cold War’s nightmare scenarios played out to a disastrous conclusion... Fallout is wonderful because it gave me the power to understand the fears of my parents. But more than that, it gave me permission to laugh at those fears and a way to control them — in a digital playground which undermined nostalgia for America’s Cold War past.” Read the full piece from Matthew Gault for War Is Boring here. http://bit.ly/1GJWawM