Change Coming to U.S. Nuclear Strategy

Possible no-first-use policy - “Obama is contemplating some bold ideas to advance his Prague vision, involving two major reforms in nuclear policy. They are: ‘no-first-use’ — taking off the table the option of ever initiating the use of U.S. nuclear weapons — and ‘no-launch-on-warning’ — eliminating the option of unleashing nuclear weapons immediately after detecting an apparent nuclear strike in progress but before the incoming weapons reach their targets,” writes Bruce Blair for Politico.

--“Both changes would make the world a dramatically safer place, giving the president much more latitude to avoid using nuclear weapons. Based on my conversations with administration officials, I believe Obama will soon announce that henceforth the United States will never use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. I hope he will go further and reject the idea of launch on warning, gearing U.S. nuclear strategy instead to an idea of deterrence based upon the pledge of retaliation from survivable forces and command systems after absorbing a nuclear strike.” Full article here. http://politi.co/28QuHoq

The Nuclear sleepwalkers - “Today, tensions between Moscow and NATO, elevated by Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea and by its continuing support for separatists in Ukraine, are high… In a region that holds 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials, dialogue is essential to maintain stability. If allies do not adopt a balanced approach in Warsaw and beyond, they risk sleepwalking into a new nuclear confrontation — with all the inherent dangers that entails for the region,” write Simon Lunn, Isabelle Williams, and Steve Andreasen in a new report for the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

--“There is an underlying assumption by some that Russia has a lower threshold for the use of nuclear weapons than leaders in the West, but it is equally important to remember that the devastating and sobering laws of nuclear physics remain the same for both sides. Using any nuclear weapon is a forbidding and awesome prospect with unknowable but certainly horrific consequences.… the alliance must now focus on reducing the role of nuclear weapons while maintaining a safer and more credible nuclear posture and enhancing NATO’s conventional capabilities.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/28Rj9CX

Gov. Brown reviews Sec. Perry’s book - “I know of no person who understands the science and politics of modern weaponry better than William J. Perry, the US Secretary of Defense from 1994 to 1997,” writes Gov. Jerry Brown for The New York Review of Books. “When a man of such unquestioned experience and intelligence issues the stark nuclear warning that is central to his recent memoir, we should take heed.”

--“As much as anyone, Perry is aware of the ways, secret and public, that technical innovation, private profit and tax dollars, civilian gadgetry and weapons of mass destruction, satellite technology, computers, and ever-expanding surveillance are interconnected. But he now uses this dark knowledge in an effort to reverse the deadly arms race in which he had such a pivotal role.” http://bit.ly/28NeeC5

New START report card - Hans Kristensen analyzed the implementation and future of New START for the Deep Cuts Commission Workshop. “After full implementation in 2018, with current employment strategy, the United States will still deploy one-third more weapons than military needs for national and international security commitments,” according to Kristensen’s presentation. He details obstacles to implementation and possible positive developments. Read the slides from the presentation here. http://bit.ly/28ZHWRM

Nuclear testimony - Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione recently testified on the threat of nuclear weapons before the Democratic Platform Drafting Committee. "The use of one nuclear weapon on one city would be a level of destruction not seen since the end of the Second World War,” Cirincione said. “The use of ten nuclear weapons on ten cities would be a catastrophe unprecedented in human history. The use of 100 weapons on 100 cities could destroy all humanity has created over the millennia.”

--“One has to be irrationally optimistic to believe that we can keep these weapons in fallible human hands indefinitely and something terrible will not happen. We can and must steadily reduce the risk of nuclear explosions by accident, miscalculation or madness before it is too late.” Read Joe’s testimony here or watch the video here.

Missile defense must remain “limited” - “Some members of Congress are rightfully calling for reform to the U.S. national missile defense program, but the change they suggest — removing the word ‘limited’ from current U.S. policy — will carelessly expand the program and waste billions of dollars. If we’re serious about improving national missile defense, Congress must reform the objectives of the Missile Defense Agency to promote innovation and require a strict policy of ‘fly before you buy,’” writes Philip Coyle for Breaking Defense.

--“The lawmakers claim that this word ‘limited’ has been the obstacle to success. It hasn’t. The truth is that ‘limited’ national missile defense has been a necessary recognition of the intractable scientific and technical obstacles still preventing the GMD system from working … Unless the Missile Defense Agency shifts its focus to solving technical limitations, removing the word ‘limited’ from U.S. policy will only result in massive new expenditures for unreliable hardware that is unlikely to make America safer.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/28Uv6FW

The immorality of nuclear weapons - “Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, which advocates for reducing nuclear stockpiles, spoke at the conference about a growing movement against weapons that he called ‘immoral, unnecessary and unaffordable,’” reports Rebecca Moss for The New Mexican. “‘I understand you are primarily a business coalition here to support your bases, your programs and your contracts,’ he said. ‘You don’t want someone coming in here telling you that what you are doing is unmoral.’”

--“While many at the conference spoke about nuclear weapons across the globe as a deterrent to large-scale acts of violence by nations, Cirincione said there is an increasing counterdialogue that nuclear weapons are a ‘chip of decreasing value’ and that the U.S., by continuing to maintain its nuclear weapons, also is maintaining its nuclear enemies.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/28PsQ3f

New North Korean missile launch - “After five consecutive failures, North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Wednesday, advancing its efforts to extend its striking range to target American military bases in the Pacific. The projectile, a Musudan missile, took off from Wonsan, a port city east of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, and flew about 250 miles before crashing into the sea between North Korea and Japan, South Korea’s Office of Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement,” writes Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/28Zynmd

See also - “North Korea’s Successful Missile Test Shows Program’s Progress, Analysts Say,” by Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/28OcchG

Tweet - @k8gould: Check out @FCNL's flyer on how #IranDeal has made world safer #DiplomacyWorks @plough_shares http://bit.ly/1geTAJz

Video games for change - “We engage in that process as being a kind of conduit for new games,” said Games for Change President Susanna Pollack in an interview with Sarah Sloat for Inverse. “We run a series of challenges on behalf of partners who are interested in creating games concepts around issues, who then very often find a project that they’ll then go and fund.”

--“We ran a challenge with [N Square] around nuclear issues. That game’s concept was actually made by a woman who worked within policy, had a great understanding of games, and wrote this fantastic games concept. She won the $10,000 prize and then we connected her project with a known gave developer who built a prototype around that games.” Full interview here. http://bit.ly/28NyW4d

Quick Hits:

--“A look at major deals signed in Iran after nuclear accord,” from the AP. http://wapo.st/28P6cmU

--“20 Years Later, the CTBT Is Still in Limbo,” by Hamzah Rifaat Hussain for The Diplomat. http://bit.ly/28Se7Fi

--“US calls for swift UN condemnation of North Korea launches,” by Edith M. Lederer for the AP. http://wapo.st/28Ri6CM

--“Watchdog group sues for documents from the Department of Energy,” by David Kramer for Physics Today. http://bit.ly/28Uxe0c

--“Spector Calls on UN Committee to Condemn Violations of WMD Controls,” a statement from Leonard S. Spector, Executive Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. http://bit.ly/28ZEQgJ

--“France Looks to Fan Nuke Deal Momentum With Iran's Minister,” by Elaine Ganley for the AP. http://abcn.ws/28MeUSU

Events:

--“An Assessment of the Iran Agreement One Year Later,” with Sen. Chris Coons (DE). June 23 at 12:30 p.m. Webcast on the Council on Foreign Relations website. http://on.cfr.org/28JeNd7

--“Russian Nuclear Strategy,” with Pavel Podvig, Russian Nuclear Forces Project; and Nikolai Sokov, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. June 27 from 10:00 to 11:30 a.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/28KmgZU

--“U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the Twenty-First Century,” with Brad Roberts, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; and George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment. June 28 from 10:00 to 11:15 a.m. at the Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://ceip.org/1UXkD99

--“The Iran Nuclear Deal After One Year,” featuring Barbara Slavin, Atlantic Council; and Kate Gould, Friends Committee on National Legislation. June 28 from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. Webinar sponsored by women's Action for New Directions. Register here. http://bit.ly/28Ivd41

--“The JCPOA: Looking Ahead After One Year,” featuring William Burns, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, and seven other speakers. June 29 from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. at the Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://ceip.org/1UxNvc7

--“Nuclear Policy for the Next Administration,” with Christopher Peble, Cato Institute; Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association; and Steven Pifer, Brookings Institute. July 6 at 6:00 p.m. at the American Foreign Service Association, 2010 E St. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/1ZOcqs3

--The Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Summer Boot Camp at the University of California, San Diego from June 19 to June 29. Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione will speak on “Modernization Plans for U.S. Nuclear Forces” at 9 a.m. June 29. More information here. http://bit.ly/28Q39Ma