Cartwright and Dvorkin: US-Russia Dialogue Needed to Avert Nuclear Disaster

Cold War relic - “Launch-on-warning is a relic of Cold War strategy whose risk today far exceeds its value,” write former STRATCOM commander Gen. James Cartwright (USMC ret.) and Vladimir Dvorkin in The New York Times. “In periods of heightened tensions and reduced decision times, the likelihood of human and technical error in control systems increases… Our leaders urgently need to talk and, we hope, agree to scrap this obsolete protocol before a devastating error occurs.”

--The US and Russian presidents “should reinstitute military-to-military talks, which were suspended over the Ukraine crisis, to pursue this stand-down as an urgent priority… To reinforce this accord, both countries should refrain from conducting military exercises that involve practicing missile launches based on information from early warning systems.” http://nyti.ms/1FZsagi

Bigger picture - After noting the “important progress” made toward a final nuclear deal with Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in The New York Times said, “With courageous leadership and the audacity to make the right decisions, we can and should put this manufactured crisis to rest and move on to much more important work.”

--Zarif talks about Iran’s broader foreign policy in the Middle East and the role of a nuclear deal in freeing up attention to address the turmoil in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Full article here. http://nyti.ms/1E1T8XY

Domestic picture - “Looking at the Middle East, it’s difficult to be rosy about any one country’s fate. But a final nuclear deal, Iran’s adherence to it, and resulting sanctions relief could provide more room for Iranians who seek real changes,” writes Alireza Nader of RAND.

--“No one should expect miracles after a nuclear deal. Khamenei and his system will not change so easily. But Iranians have been patient. The United States should be as well.” Full article in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1G0wr32

Process and policy - A vote in Congress to scuttle an Iran deal and prevent the president from waiving sanctions “would be much more politically risky” than the votes occurring around the Corker-Cardin bill, writes John Bennett in Defense News.

--“Once process votes give way to high-stakes policy votes, things get very risky. For Republicans. For Democrats. For the Middle East. For the world.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1yL5vYj

Undermining negotiations - “Congress should play an appropriate oversight role over a nuclear deal with Iran. Unfortunately, the proposed Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act is not oversight but instead an extraordinary effort to undermine the president's ability to conduct diplomacy and change the rules of the game on our negotiators in the middle of high-stakes negotiations,” writes Jamal Abdi in the News-Press. Full article here. http://newspr.es/1Ek7Rzl

Tweet - @IranPrimer: Jim Slattery: It would be a tragedy if domestic political forces prevented a historic breakthrough in US-Iran relations

How to relieve sanctions - Under current law, the President has “substantial authorities” to provide Iran sanctions relief under a final nuclear deal, including suspending operation of sanctions, licensing prohibited transactions and de-designating Iranian persons and entities from sanctions lists.

--“Absent Congressional action limiting such powers, these authorities allow the President to fulfill U.S. obligations...pursuant to a comprehensive nuclear deal.” Policy memo from Tyler Cullis of the National Iranian American Council. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1bkZMOm

Why the hurry? - “Once again Congress lived up to its reputation— no hearings on the Coker bill were planned; no expert testimony exacted; no serious debate scheduled. None of this could happen — after all — until the framework agreement is translated by the end of June into a detailed final document. So what’s the hurry?” asks Barry Blechman. “The answer, of course, is politics.”

--Blechman lays out the real costs to U.S. national interests if Congress ends up torpedoing a final deal with Iran and explains why Congress should wait for a final agreement and not rush to judgement. http://bit.ly/1yLcJeC

Quick Hits:

--“Russia-Iran Relationship is a Marriage of Opportunity” by Karoun Demirjian in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1bdy4SX

--“AF: New bomber needed even if reliance on nukes declines” by Brian Everstine for Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1zCrzin

-- “Why the Deal With Iran Is Worth Fighting For” by Michael Klare in The Nation. http://bit.ly/1DtGWKI

Events:

--“The Iran Deal: Delays or Delivery?” A discussion with Joe Cirincione and Dr. Jim Walsh. April 21 at 5:30 pm, The Hampshire House, 84 Beacon St., Boston, MA 02108. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1Imm8ZX

--“The Changing Face of Iran: Nuclear Diplomacy and its Implications,” featuring Ali Vaez. April 22, 8:30 to 10:00 London time. Hosted by Chatham House. http://bit.ly/1Hxexts

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

--“Nuclear Agreement with Iran: Can’t Trust, Can We Verify?” Hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, with witnesses Charles Duelfer and David Albright. April 22 at 10:00am in Rayburn 2172. http://1.usa.gov/1J2PwYA

--”Air Force and Navy Nuclear Programs and the Implementation of Nuclear Enterprise Review Recommendations” Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, with witnesses Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, VADM Terry Benedict, Deputy NNSA Administrator Madelyn Creedon and Dr. Yisroel Brumer. April 22 at 2:30pm in Russell ST-222. http://1.usa.gov/1JmAlGD

--P5+1 and Iran resume negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. April 22-23 in Vienna.

--“Atomic Aversion and Just War Principles” featuring Scott Sagan. April 24 from 12:00-1:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1JZwJLx