After the Test: Denuclearization and Nonproliferation

On the radar: More tests on horizon; Future diplomatic moves; MOX to cost $2B more; De-alerting; Nukestock 2013 schedule; Russian position on reductions; and Nobody unilaterally disarms quite like Republican presidents did.

February 15, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Heads up - “North Korea has told its key ally, China, that it is prepared to stage one or even two more nuclear tests this year in an effort to force the United States into diplomatic talks with Pyongyang,” reports Benjamin Kang Lim at Reuters. http://reut.rs/WuY00B

De-nuclearization dead-ended? - “Largely overlooked by the international community in the build up to the latest nuclear test was Pyongyang's pledge that, barring the realisation of global disarmament, 'there can be talks for peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the region [...] but no talks for the denuclearization of the peninsula,'” note Edward Schwarck and Andrea Berger in an analysis of how diplomacy with the North might proceed after the recent test. Full post from RUSI. http://bit.ly/X9JfSj

Focus on nonproliferation - ”The United States should not formally renounce the policy of denuclearization or publicly “accept” North Korea as a legitimate nuclear-armed state. However, it does need to refocus its efforts on more attainable goals: deterrence and nonproliferation,” writes James Acton for Carnegie. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/15i2AE6

Tweet - @StanfordCISAC: Hecker does in-depth analysis of North Korea's nuclear test. http://stanford.io/VVHDxi

The incredible increasing MOX budget - Baseline cost estimates for the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabricaiton facility grew another $2 billion, according to a new GAO report. The project was estimated to cost $1.7 billion in 2007. Latest estimates put the program at $6.8 billion and counting. Mike Gellatly at The Aiken Standard has the story. http://bit.ly/YvFUtw

--NNSA’s greatest hits begins on page 218 in the original report: ”HIGH-RISK SERIES: An Update” from the Government Accountability Office. February, 2013. (pdf)http://1.usa.gov/XbVACm

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Pyong-bang - Our own Joe Cirincione discusses the mechanics, details and implications of the North Korean nuclear test with ABC’s Martha Raddatz. http://owl.li/hKeGp

De-alerting - The U.S. and Russia have taken considerable steps to reduce the alert levels of their nuclear forces since the end of the Cold War. Given the risks of current nuclear alert postures and that previous de-alerting measures have not produced crises, the U.S. and Russia should continue de-alerting “by removing the remaining nuclear weapons from alert through a phased approach to ensure stability and develop consultation and verification measures,” concludes a new report.

--Full report: “Reducing Alert Rates of Nuclear Weapons” by Hans Kristensen and Matthew McKinzie. UNIDIR, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/12p6oUp

CRS Reports - “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues” by Mary Beth Nikitin. February 12, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Un5d4o

--”Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues” by Paul Kerr and Mary Beth Nikitin. February 13, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/QlmGlW

Nukestock 2013 - Updated agenda for the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference now available.

--Included: Keynote from IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano. “Prague 2.0? Deterrence, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in Obama's Second Term” with Gottemoeller, Arbatov and Perkovich. http://bit.ly/ZfsesK

Tweet - @RAND_OCR: #SOTU talks about nuclear reductions, but can the US overcome Russian obstacles? http://t.co/IjfjtIIU

Russian position - Discussing further reductions with the US, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said, “After the treaty implementation we would be ready for possible further steps toward nuclear disarmament.”

--”We have not received specific proposals from the U.S. on further strategic nuclear-weapons cuts, however we will be ready to discuss them upon receipt.” Story from Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/12L3Knt

Events:

--”The Korean Peninsula Issues.” Institute for Corean-American Studies. February 15, 1:00-4:30 p.m. @ Rayburn Office Building, Room B. http://owl.li/hr2Ag

--”Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is a Peaceful Solution Possible?” Amb. Thomas Pickering and Kenneth Pollack. February 19, 10:00-11:30 a.m. @ The Brookings Institution, Faulk Auditorium. Details here.http://owl.li/hCGQy

--”Nuclear Policy Challenges,” Joe Cirincione, President of Ploughshares Fund. February 19, 7:00-8:30 p.m. @ UW Milwaukee Institute of World Affairs. Details Here. http://owl.li/hCHz1

--”Iran Nuclear Talks - What Can Be Achieved in 2013,” Featuring Amb. Thomas Pickering, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Alireza Nader and Daryl Kimball. Monday Feb. 25 from 2:00-3:30pm at the Carnegie Endowment. http://bit.ly/XK3XYV

Dessert:

History lesson - Often overlooked from President George H. W. Bush’s 1991-92 nuclear policy initiatives “is that he was prepared to retire those nuclear weapons with — or without — Russian reciprocity. The fact that the Soviet Union and later Russia followed suit turned out to be icing on the cake. All told, between 1988 and 1992 Bush reduced the total size of the U.S. nuclear stockpile (both strategic and non-strategic warheads) by nearly 50%, from 22,217 to 11,511 warheads,” writes Kingston Reif for TIME’s “Battleland.”

--Reif discusses Republican presidents’ knack for unilateral nuclear cuts, and asks why today’s GOP holds a Democratic president (and his cabinet choices) to a different standard. http://ti.me/XbM9Vh