The Smart Approach with Russia on Missile Defense

On the radar: Being grown ups, talking with Russia; Fortenberry and Schiff on the Summit; Reducing Cold War arsenals; Funds, Jobs, and the SSBN(X) Delay; Why Turkey won’t go nuclear; Venue undecided for P5+1; SFRC hearing on Iran; At the margins of the summit; Shultz: modernize Open Skies; Putin’s BMD politics; and Photos from GTRI in Mexico.

March 27, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

BMD cooperation makes sense - “Campaign-year outrage from Obama’s rivals over the remarks is probably inevitable, but it would also be disingenuous because we all know better,” writes the Bloomberg editorial board.

--Recommendation: “It would be best to have Russia on board with the program if that can be achieved. There are some interesting proposals available. Dean Wilkening, a physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, suggests building a joint U.S-Russian $500 million radar complex in central Russia, using U.S. technology. This, he says, would significantly improve both Russia’s dated early warning network and the coverage of NATO’s missile shield. That sounds smart to us.” http://owl.li/9UfG2

Truth - “Frankly, the current environment is not conducive to those kinds of thoughtful consultations. I think the stories you guys have been writing over the last 24 hours (are) pretty good evidence of that,” said President Obama about his recent hot mic comments. AP has the quote. http://owl.li/9UfI0

Preventing nuclear terror - “The era of bipartisan cooperation on nuclear security must continue. The cost of a nuclear terrorist attack – in terms of lives and the impact on the global economy– is far too high to react with anything less than urgency,” write Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NB) and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) in The Hill.

--The authors support the Nuclear Security Summit process and urge Congress and the president “to ensure that efforts to strengthen global nuclear security are appropriately funded.” http://owl.li/9UfKc

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Cirincione on further reductions - “Well, the president's speaking a basic truth that most military and security experts would agree with: We no longer need the Cold War arsenal that we accumulated during those terror years,” said Joe Cirincione in an interview with NPR’s Talk of the Nation. http://owl.li/9UfWD

--Joe also was on PBS News Hour alongside Stephen Rademaker, discussing further reductions, missile defense, and North Korea. http://owl.li/9UfZe

Rethinking Cold War arsenals - President Obama remarks at Seoul yesterday that “the massive nuclear arsenal we inherited from the Cold War is poorly suited for today’s threats” are right on track, writes Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association.

--Next on the president’s nuclear agenda should be reducing the overall stockpile and “eliminating outdated targeting assumptions”, Kimball writes. http://owl.li/9UfMe

SSBN(X) delay - The delay for the Ohio Replacement submarine has the potential to raise unit costs or to reduce overall costs by allowing time to refine the design and avoid costly complications. Predictably, Electric Boat and members of congress with submarine interests in their districts are beginning to pushback on the delay, reports AOL Defense.

--”In its more recent 30-year shipbuilding plan, the Navy admitted the cost of acquiring new boomers could put the annual ship construction budget $2 billion over historical averages in the 2020s and 2030s, potentially threatening other ship programs.” http://owl.li/9UfOQ

Turkey and Iran’s nuclear program - An Iranian nuclear weapon would upset regional stability in the Middle East. “Yet as threatening as a nuclear-armed Iran may be, the ‘domino effect’ will not in itself be sufficient to trigger a Turkish decision to build a nuclear weapons program,” writes Sinan Ülgen for the Carnegie Endowment.

--The author notes that Turkey has a strong nonproliferation record. Also, should Iran go nuclear, Turkey is more likely to rely on its NATO security guarantees than to forsake them and break for a bomb. http://owl.li/9Ug1v

P5+1 talks update - The date’s set (April 13th) but the venue for the next round of P5+1 talks with Iran has yet to be decided. Western officials say the disagreement over the venue will be resolved in time, though AP’s George Jahn reports that it “appeared to reflect the deep differences that have doomed previous meetings.” http://owl.li/9Ug3N

Iran, North Korea, and the Seoul summit - And whatever progress occurs dealing with either [Iran or North Korea] or both will be achieved at the margins of the summit - in Obama's private meetings with Medvedev, Hu and other world leaders,” writes National Journal’s Major Garrett.

--”The true test of the summit's success, then, won't be found in the communique or semi-flashy commitments from nations at the low-end of nuclear instability, but in the signals from Russia and China, which may or may not be announced, about what comes next.” http://owl.li/9Ug72

Hearings- Amb. Thomas Pickering, Gen. James Cartwright, and Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour testify before SFRC on “High Stakes and Hard Choices: U.S. Policy on Iran.” Tomorrow at 10am. http://owl.li/9Tnhx

--Madelyn Creedon, assistant secretary of defense for global strategic affairs, Andrew Weber, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear programs, and others before SASC's Subcommittee on Strategic Forces on DOD’s nuclear forces and budget. Tomorrow at 2:30pm. http://owl.li/9Tngj

Things for sailors to do outside the Strait of Hormuz - Cannonballs. h/t Battleland. http://owl.li/9Ugax

Tweet - @ForeignOffice: Foreign Secretary @WilliamJHague: UK's commitment to bringing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force http://ow.ly/9TQxM

Open Skies - “The Open Skies Treaty currently provides a mechanism...to foster international trust, confidence and cooperation by stipulating the terms, conditions and quotas for reciprocal territorial access,” write George P. Shultz, Sidney Drell, and Christopher Stubbs in The New York Times.

--”The United States should play a leadership role in strengthening both the technical and political aspects of cooperative aerial monitoring,” the authors conclude. http://owl.li/9Ugeb

Russian policy and politics on BMD - “Practical and meaningful cooperation is possible if Russia cedes from viewing NATO and 'the West' in an adversarial light, but this would require a major attitudinal change in the present leadership,” write Igor Sutyagin and Avnish Patel for RUSI. http://owl.li/9Uggq

Photoset: GTRI in Mexico - NNSA recently loaded up Mexico’s remaining HEU onto a C-17 and transported it to the U.S. for downblending. NNSA posted the photos on its Flickr site. http://owl.li/9UgiQ