Risky Assumptions for Preventive War

On the radar: Time to rethink attacking Iran; Budget, technical realities force Airborne Laser to land; Amb. Rice on Iran; 71-26; Iran and GOP voters; Amb. Christopher Hill on North Korea; Kristof’s lessons; Scientific exchanges with China; and 551 train shipments secured.

December 22, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

A faulty war brief - In his article “Time to Attack Iran,” Matthew Kroenig “makes the case for war by assuming everything will go south if the United States does not attack and that everything will go swimmingly if it does. This is not fair-minded ‘analysis’; it is simply a brief for war designed to reach a predetermined conclusion,” writes Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy.

--Kroenig’s article “is a classic illustration of worst-case analysis, intended to make not going to war seem more dangerous than peace.” Walt takes a critical look at Kroenig’s bold assumptions about preventive war against Iran - including the likelihood of success for an attack, the severity of the consequences after such an attack, and the policy alternatives for containing and deterring Iran. http://owl.li/87Iuf

Flying lightsaber to fly no more - 16 years and $5 billion later, the Pentagon finally decided to mothball the Airborne Laser missile defense program. “ABL has cratered under the substantial funding required for its work, cost-prohibitive and improbable employment scenarios and, most recently, pressure on the Pentagon budget resulting from growing national debt,” eulogizes Aviation Week.

--Son of ABL is already on the drawing board. Missile Defense Agency Director, Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly, says the agency is looking to get more powerful lasers in smaller packages that can operate from UAVs. http://owl.li/87Iqx

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Early Warning review - These first four months of publishing Early Warning have been amazing. As 2011 draws to a close, the editors brought out their Magic 8 Balls to predict what will happen in 2012.

--Next year’s headlines: 1) “Congress Pushes Sanctions on Iran” 2) “Russia Objects to Missile Defense System” 3) “GOP Candidate Urges Toughness on Iran” 4) Nuclear Weapons Program Over Budget, Behind Schedule” 5) “Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal a Concern.”

Quote - “The [Security] Council therefore must redouble its efforts to implement the sanctions already imposed. Full implementation of these measures will show Iran there is a price to be paid for its deception. Full implementation can also slow down Iran’s nuclear progress, buying us more time to resolve this crisis through diplomatic means,” said Amb. Susan Rice at a UN Security Council briefing on Iran.

--Ali Gharib at Think Progress gives context to Amb. Rice’s remarks. http://owl.li/87Q04

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard “Number of the day: 71-26, the final vote on Senate approval of the New START treaty, which occurred one year ago today.”

GOP polls on Iran - “Republican voters also appear to lack an appetite for engaging Iran militarily at the moment, at least while diplomacy is an alternative,” reports The Washington Post’s Scott Clement in a story on divergences between voter opinions and GOP presidential contenders’ policy positions on Iran.

--According to a CNN/ORC survey, more than six in 10 Republicans said “economic and diplomatic efforts” are the best Iran policy right now, while fewer than one in four chose military action. http://owl.li/87QUj

Hill on North Korea - “Reenergizing the [six-party] talks will require renewed focus on taking steps to achieve their ends. Unfortunately, China, the party with the greatest leverage over North Korea, seems least committed to doing what is required,” writes Amb. Christopher Hill.

--”The U.S. should be prepared to make clear to the Chinese that any change in political arrangements on the Korean peninsula would not result in a strategic loss to China.” From Hill’s recommendations, share plans for responding to a North Korean collapse with China and assure China that U.S. forces will never be stationed above the 38th parallel. http://owl.li/87N6t

Lessons on dealing with the North - Nick Kristof has a few lessons on North Korea from past failures of American policy. “Don’t assume that the end of the regime is imminent...Don’t assume that everybody detests the regime...Don’t try to isolate North Korea.”

--”There are no good solutions. But let’s take advantage of the leadership transition to try a dose of outreach. If we can inch toward diplomatic relations, trade and people-to-people exchanges, we’re not rewarding a monstrous regime. We just might be digging its grave.” http://owl.li/87OOH

Lab-to-Lab with China - The U.S. is working on renewing scientists exchanges between U.S. and Chinese nuclear labs. Bill Gertz reports the story, with a singular emphasis on criticism of such programs based on espionage risks. http://owl.li/87Pj3

551 train shipments - The Nunn-Lugar program secured 4 more nuclear weapons train shipments, bringing its scorecard total up to 551 shipments secured since 1991. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/87PWr