Putin and the Future of Arms Control

On the radar: Pifer talks Putin; Cutting nuclear excess from Pentagon budgets; Diplomacy required for cooperation on Iran; Bumps on the road to zero; IAEA Politics; Controlling arms, deficits; NATO missile defense for the interim; and a Call to ratify CTBT.

September 30, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Putin and the future for arms control - What will Putin’s return to the Russian presidency mean for U.S.-Russia arms control efforts? The differences could be at the margins, argues Amb. Steven Pifer on the Ploughshares blog.

--Given Putin’s involvement in all recent policy decisions, Russia’s approach is unlikely to change, notes Pifer. While more skeptical of Washington, Putin is still pragmatic. Nuclear reductions could be attractive if Russia’s defense budget comes under domestic pressure. Missile defense cooperation remains an open question. http://owl.li/6JAJJ

Nuclear targets for budget cuts - The recent NYT editorial calling for the Pentagon to prune the billions it spends buying new versions of Cold War weapons is on target, argues Daryl Kimball in a letter to the editor. Such cuts should include “proposals for new nuclear subs and bombers which could cost upward of $100 billion over the coming decades.”

--”The crisis in spending is a crisis of priorities. To cut the pay and benefits of our military would be shameful when wasteful spending on nuclear weapons needs to be cut instead,” writes Alicia Godsberg. http://owl.li/6JyJg

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Cooperation on Iran - “A serious, multi-faceted approach must continue to include coordinated, international outreach to show Iran what it can gain through greater cooperation and abandonment of a nuclear-weapon option,” write Peter Crail and Kelsey Hartigan in The Hill. “Such pressure will only be maintained so long as the U.S. openness to diplomacy can be contrasted with Iran’s continued unwillingness to negotiate seriously.” http://owl.li/6Jvaj

Journey to zero an uphill climb - “Obama's bold push for a nuclear-free world -- and an American nuclear posture in support of that goal -- looks to be in danger of stalling.” Zachary Roth takes a look at the domestic and politics and international dynamics that have hindered the road to zero.

--There’s still a bright side, says Michael Krepon: ”Zero will always be in the picture now.” http://owl.li/6JyQh

Gripe: Politics of the IAEA - What can the IAEA do about Iran? Preventing another Fukushima? Not much, concludes Konstantin Kakaes after spending one day in Vienna. The “inherent futility” of the IAEA is that “it is, by its nature, political...Each [member state] is concerned with its own national interest, which mostly involves keeping the agency weak.” http://owl.li/6JxrH

Reality: The IAEA’s Political Balancing Act - “The agency's ongoing evolution rests in large measure on [Director Amano’s] ability to skillfully balance member states' conflicting priorities in a difficult financial and diplomatic environment,” write Michelle Dover and Miles Pomper in World Politics Review. http://owl.li/6JDCg

A nuclear cut at the deficit - “By responsibly reducing strategic nuclear forces and scaling back new weapons systems, the United States can help close its budget deficit. By reducing the incentive for Russia to rebuild its arsenal, these budget savings will make the United States safer and more secure,” writes Daryl Kimball for Arms Control Today. http://owl.li/6JyM8

Interim BMD capability for NATO - “NATO missile defense officials are awaiting approval of a plan to lay out guidance for unified alliance missile defense in advance of a key interim operational capability declaration for the system slated for May,” reports Aviation Week.

--”The North Atlantic Council is reviewing this plan, which includes weapons release authority, contingency response, rules of engagement and weapons control status guidelines,” says U.S. Air Force Gen. Mark Welsh, who oversees American air forces in Europe. http://owl.li/6JC4o

CTBT, 15 years after signing - “It's time for the Senate to finally ratify [the CTBT] and add the United States to the list of civilized nations that understands this is a step toward a more secure world.” says a new Deseret News editorial. “The benefits of ratification far outweigh those of continuing to hold out.” http://owl.li/6JC0y

Otherwise, we’d invade France (again) - “You don’t go to war with someone just because they have nuclear weapons,” said Sen. Carl Levin. http://owl.li/6JC5X