Potential Partners in Nuclear Threat Reduction

On the radar: Collaborative Threat Reduction; From escalation to engagement; China on DPRK; Sanction loopholes; Challenging the “cascade theory”; Stuxnet update; Nuke-Eating Reactor; and Test your Tehran knowledge.

March 1, 2013 | Edited by Alyssa Demus

Comrade, not customer - In recent talks between the U.S. and Russia, Moscow has insisted that it wants to take on a new role in the Cooperative Threat Reduction program. Rather than participate as a recipient, Russia now wants to partner with the U.S. to work together in third countries to secure nuclear materials reports Douglas P. Guarino of the Global Security Newswire. Full story here. http://owl.li/iaMxq

Game-changer -The positive (or at the very least neutral) tone surrounding recent talks between Iran and world powers is significant - the “paradigm of the talks shifted from perpetual escalation to an exchange of concessions and incentives,” which could be a “game-changer” says Trita Parsi in The Diplomat.

-- And yet, “hopefully history won’t repeat itself.” “The atmosphere” at the first round of talks under the current administration in 2009 “was also very positive. [But this] optimism only lasted a few days though [before] the atmosphere turned sour. Whether Almaty will meet the same fate [...] depends on Tehran,” says Parsi. Full analysis here. http://owl.li/iapwP

Tweet - @julianborger: IMPORTANT: #Iran says could double production of fuel plates, therefore sharply reducing stockpile of 20% uranium reut.rs/WlevQg

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Podcast - Hans Kristensen and Stephen Rademaker discuss “Unilateral Nuclear Arms Reductions” at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Listen to the debate here. http://owl.li/iaufh

All bark, no bite - China appears to be continuing its investment plans for the Rason economic zone, a free trade zone with North Korea, despite Beijing’s frustration over Pyongyang’s recent nuclear test. Chinese leadership has been giving mixed signals about its relations with DPRK since the test.

--"China has normal relations with North Korea. We will conduct normal trade and economic exchanges with North Korea. At the same time, China opposes North Korea's nuclear test and its position on promoting denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is firm," said Hua Chunying, China's foreign ministry spokeswoman. Charlie Zhu of Reuters has the story. http://owl.li/iaEW7

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: U.N. Could Need Weeks to Decide on Nuke Test Response: Envoy bit.ly/XrFRRI

Skeptics - “Is the U.S. kowtowing to Iran’s nuclear talks?” Full Washington Post editorial here. http://owl.li/iaSmm

Circumventing sanctions - Glencore, the world’s largest commodities trader provided aluminum to Tehran’s Iranian Aluminum Company (Iralco) according to intelligence and diplomatic sources. The barter “illustrates how difficult it is for Western powers to curb Iran’s ability to trade with the rest of the world,” reports Louis Charbonneau of Rueters. http://owl.li/iasGo

Negating nuclear dominos - Conventional wisdom says that Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon will incite a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Not so, says a new report “Atomic Kingdom: If Iran Builds the Bomb, Will Saudi Arabia Be Next?” by Colin Kahl, Matthew Irvine, and Melissa Dalton of the Center for a New American Security.

--Kahl discusses the report’s findings, the potential for Pakistani proliferation, a Saudi nuclear umbrella, and Washington’s fixation with the cascade theory with The Diplomat’s Zachary Keck. Full interview here. http://owl.li/iav0R

Report - The Institute for Science and International Security has released a new report on the Stuxnet 5.0 computer virus that was used to attack Iran’s Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant - “Basic Attack Strategy of Stuxnet 5.0.” Full report here. http://owl.li/ian1n

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: #Nuclear war should never be fought because there can be no winners in such a conflict. link

Events:

--”Understanding the Behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Mohsen Milani, Univ. of Southern Florida; Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International. March 4 9:00-11:00 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://owl.li/i1F0C

--”Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out.” Pervez Hoodbhoy, Zia Mian, and George Perkovich. March 5 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment WDC. Register here. http://owl.li/hY13n

--”National Security and the DOD: 2025.” Rep. Adam Smith (WA) and Rep. Mac Thornberry (TX). March 6 3:00-4:00 p.m. @ Rayburn House Office Bldg. Sponsored by the American Security Project. RSVP here. http://owl.li/i7Wq9

Dessert:

Modern marvels - Eighteen-year-old Taylor Wilson unveiled a new compact nuclear reactor he designed at a TED conference yesterday. The reactor can be “made assembly-line style,” “shipped and sealed with enough fuel for “30 years” and doesn’t “spew anything if there’s a breach.” Best yet, the reactors can be powered by radioactive material from old nuclear weapons reports AFP.

--"In the Cold War we built up this huge arsenal of nuclear weapons and we don't need them anymore. It would be great if we could eat them up, and this reactor loves this stuff,” said Wilson. Full story here. http://owl.li/ialLB

Quiz - With all of the recent buzz about Iran, curious to test your knowledge of the state? Take Christian Science Monitor’s Iran quiz to find out. http://owl.li/ialg7