Debating the Military Option

On the radar: Iran policy and the GOP debate; Powell gives caution; Polls show caution; Military option would be “counterproductive and ineffective”; Zakaria on next steps; Pentagon eyes nuclear, budget cuts; ISIS on the military dimensions; Explosion kills Iranian missile expert; Legal perspective on the Iran report; and the Economics of cooperation.

November 14, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

GOP candidates supportive of military action - Most of the GOP presidential candidates say the military option is the best way of addressing Iran’s nuclear program, despite the risks involved. Kelsey Hartigan looks at this and other misperceptions from Saturday’s debate. http://owl.li/7sQsh

Powell gives cautions on military option - "I think the U.S. ought to keep the sanctions on and try to increase the pressure on the Iranian regime," Colin Powell told ABC’s Christiane Amanpour. "And always the president has the military options, but I think those options are quite narrow. And you'd better think very, very carefully before you start looking at that option too closely." http://owl.li/7sRol

Public opinion not supportive of military action - “A majority of Americans - 55 percent - say the threat posed by Iran, which has been developing a nuclear capability, can be contained by diplomacy. Fifteen percent say the situation requires the United States to take military action now; 17 percent say Iran is not a threat. Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to say Iran is a threat that requires military action.” http://owl.li/7sQqJ

Facts not supportive of military action - “The U.S. certainly has military force readily at hand to destroy Iran's known nuclear development sites in short order. This is highly unlikely, however, because of the strategic calculation that an attack would be counterproductive and ultimately ineffective, spawning retaliation against U.S. allies and forces in the region, and merely delaying eventual nuclear weapons development,” writes AP on the factual missteps in last weekend’s GOP presidential debate. http://owl.li/7sQoN

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Don’t rush to war - “We do have a containment policy towards Iran that appears to be having some effect,” writes Fareed Zakaria. “Its neighbors are allied against it and with the United States. The pressure has restricted the regime's room for maneuver. There appear to be internal tensions within the regime.”

--“And yet, rather than keeping the pressure on and seeing if we can find a way to get inspectors in, we now hear calls for war one more time...It is easy to start a war. It is very difficult to predict how it will go and where it might end. I think we need to ask some hard questions before we start launching the missiles.” http://owl.li/7sQjp

Nuclear budget on the table - DOD is considering cuts to the nuclear arsenal for budget savings. "Our top priority is maintaining a nuclear deterrent, but the arsenal may not need to be as large as it is," said Pentagon press secretary George Little. What those cuts would look like, and the savings that would result, is still unclear. From AFP. http://owl.li/7sQbc

Detailed analysis on the IAEA report - Read the latest from ISIS on “Iran’s Work and Foreign Assistance on a Multipoint Initiation System for a Nuclear Weapon.” (pdf) http://owl.li/7sRNM

Explosion kills Iran missile expert - “Iran held a solemn funeral for eight of 17 Revolutionary Guards killed in a munitions blast on Monday, including a key figure in its ballistic missiles programme, as a US magazine pointed a finger at Israel,” reports AFP. http://owl.li/7sQun

Iran and the IAEA’s legal mandate - “In conducting [its] investigations into technologies other than fissile materials and producing [the latest Iran] report, the IAEA is acting wholly outside of its authority pursuant to its safeguards agreement with Iran,” writes James Joyner. In acting outside of its mandate, argues Joyner, the IAEA opens itself up to criticism that is has become a “politicized instrument.” http://owl.li/7sRUh

Better business, better cooperation - Last Thursday, Russia completed negotiations on its accession to the World Trade Organization - after 18 years of work.

--Writes John Beyrle, U.S. Ambassador to Russia, “The connections and relationships that our two countries will create as a result of this will not only directly benefit U.S. and Russian companies, workers and farmers, but they will also go a long way toward ensuring that both countries remain on the road to increased partnership and cooperation. I have long said that the best and most sustainable foundation for stronger relations between our two countries is economic, and our shared success on WTO shows us that we are building that foundation together.” http://owl.li/7sQlc