Budget Crunch Forces Necessary Review of Nuclear Weapons Spending

Train wreck - Nuclear weapons spending is set to skyrocket just as the budget crunch sets in, and there’s a growing consensus among policy experts and Pentagon officials that something’s got to give. “We’re going to have an affordability problem that we’ll have to deal with,” Pentagon acquisitions chief Frank Kendall recently told a congressional panel.

--Nuclear modernization costs could account for 6 percent of the overall defense budget over the next decade, and will likely ramp up significantly after that. “If we continue to move ahead with the current course, we’re going to encounter a budgetary train wreck,” Kingston Reif of the Arms Control Association told Foreign Policy’s Kate Brannen. http://atfp.co/1aQedcv

See also - What’s to blame for the nuke budget train wreck? Enormous, expensive programs like the Ohio class sub and long range strategic bomber.

--“DoD, DoE Together Can’t Afford Ohio Replacement Sub: Kendall,” in Breaking Defense http://for.tn/1x0K2nC

--“This single Pentagon program is going to upend the combat jet industry,” in Fortune. http://bit.ly/18X3oF6

Postponed - “Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, will postpone consideration of a bill giving Congress the authority to review any deal President Obama reaches with Iran on its nuclear program, bowing to opposition from Democrats who charged that he was rushing the measure.” Julie Hirschfeld Davis has the story for the New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1zUOh4k

Alternative - Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and six Democratic co-sponsors have introduced a bill requiring the White House to provide Congress with updates on Iran’s compliance with a final nuclear agreement every three months. The bill would also expedite lawmakers’ ability to reinstate sanctions in the event that Iran violated the deal. Full story by Jessica Schulberg and Ali Watkins in the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1G6qZgB

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: Netayahu's #NKorea analogy for #Iran #nucleartalks is wrong. I explain why: http://t.co/NurZdQifeG

Caution - “Senators should be careful not to undermine President Barack Obama's negotiations with Iran,” writes the Bloomberg editorial board. “Leave aside for the moment the typical partisan debate... The central question here is whether the [Corker] bill under discussion will increase the odds of a good nuclear deal with Iran. The answer is no.”

--“By suspending the president's power to waive existing Iran sanctions for 60 days, the bill undermines any offers of sanctions relief that his negotiators made to Iran in Geneva... A ‘no’ vote on a new agreement also effectively blows up the existing deal, under which Iran’s nuclear program has been frozen (and in some cases rolled back) and subject to greater inspection.” Full piece here. http://bv.ms/1ElYpKT

Deal at hand - “I believe a good [Iran] deal is at hand,” EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told reporters on Friday. “I also believe that there is not going to be any deal if it is not going to be a good deal. And this is something we have to pass as a message to all our friends and partners.” Coverage by Reuters. http://reut.rs/18WWTlz

Hints - “Is a ten year moratorium on nuclear activity acceptable to Iran?” CNN's Christiane Amanpour asked Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif.

--“It depends on how you define it,” Zarif replied. “if we have an agreement, we will accept, certain limitations for a certain period of time, but I'm not prepared to negotiate on the air, as you said, the length of time or what are these limitations that we would be voluntarily accepting.” Full transcript here. http://cnn.it/1KxMPjq

Bogus uproar - Concern over the reported ten-year duration of a final nuclear deal is misplaced, writes Richard Nephew in the National Interest. “During the period of the agreement, Iran would permit even more intrusive inspections than what these agreements with the IAEA would normally allow… Iran would be treated like any other NPT state party in compliance with its international obligations after the term of the agreement formally ends.”

--“The key question is not when we can trust Iran, but when we can verify that it is not doing what it should not be doing. This is something that can be measured, assessed, and reported by international inspectors...but only if they are permitted to implement the deal now being negotiated.” http://bit.ly/1EmadNe

Irresponsible - “If the administration does not review nuclear spending and put in place an affordable strategy for the coming decades, nuclear strategy will be set by bureaucratic struggles and congressional politics. This is not strategy; it is an accident waiting to happen.” Read the full column by Adam Mount in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1ElX5Yw

Quick Hits:

--“Iran hardliners try to undermine Rouhani as nuclear deal nears,” by Najmeh Bozorgmehr in the Financial Times. http://on.ft.com/1Fks4RG

--“Netanyahu enters never-never land,” by Fareed Zakaria in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1EkMUn2

Events:

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on “Postures of the Department of the Army and the Department of the Air Force.” With Gen. Raymond Odierno, Chief of Staff, U.S. Army; Mark Welsh, Chief of Staff, Air Force; Deborah Lee James, Air Force Secretary; and John McHugh, Army Secretary. POSTPONED: Original time March 5 at 9:30 AM, new time TBD. Located at G-50 Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1aJjDWT

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on "Posture of the Department of the Navy." With Raymond Mabus, Navy Secretary; Adm. John Greenert, Chief of Naval Operations; and Gen. Joseph Dunford, Marine Corps. Commandant. March 10 at 9:30 AM. Located at G50 Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1EgDadv

--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget. With Frank Klotz, Administrator, NNSA. March 11, Time TBA, Room TBA, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1itSTpx

--“A Nuclear Deal, Iran’s Regional Role and U.S. Relations with the Persian Gulf.” Featuring Richard LeBaron, former Ambassador to Kuwait; Alireza Nader, RAND; and Ilan Goldenberg, Center for a New American Security. March 16 at 2:00 PM. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1MFH1mO

--“Managing and Reducing 21st Century Nuclear Security Threats.” Featuring Duyeon Kim, Carnegie Endowment; former Sen. Sam Nunn (GA), Nuclear Security Initiative; former Sen. Richard Lugar (IN), Lugar Center; Desmond Browne, former U.K. Defense Minister; and Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (NE). March 16 from 6:00-8:30 PM. Located at Georgetown University, Bunn Intercultural Center, 37th St. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP by March 12 online. http://bit.ly/1wJFnM8

--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water, hearing on the Energy Department budget. With Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. March 18, time TBA, Room TBA, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1itSTpx