A Good Iran Deal: Preventing Breakout by Creating Incentives

On the radar: The purpose of a good deal; Energy experts join talks; From the Secretary; and Cruise missile plans still up in the air.

February 23 | Edited by Will Saetren

Window of vulnerability - “The purpose of a nuclear agreement is not to create a one hundred percent foolproof way to stop Iran from pursuing a bomb. Even an agreement that did not allow for any enrichment would not do that because the Iranians would retain the know-how to restart the program at any time,” writes Ilan Goldenberg for War on the Rocks.

--“Instead, the purpose of a good deal is to create a situation where the risk of pursuing a nuclear weapon is so high and the window of vulnerability is so long, the Iranians would never dare try it.” http://bit.ly/1DKbjSw

Geneva update - Secretary of State John Kerry and Energy Secretary Ernie Moniz flew to Geneva this weekend for talks with their Iranian counterparts. The presence of high-level technical officials may indicate progress on some elements of a final deal, but both sides continue to emphasize that gaps remain, the New York Times reports. http://nyti.ms/1zaDt1y

Kerry quotes - “Our governments remain in lockstep with our international partners... a unified P5+1 has put on the table creative ideas to achieve our objective,” John Kerry said at a press conference on Saturday.

--“There are still significant gaps. There is still a distance to travel… President Obama has no inclination whatsoever to extend these talks beyond the period that has been set out ” Full transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/1zXUlZC

Tweet - @FarKashani: After such an effort by Iran & US, not reaching an agreement, should be more impossible than a proper deal. #IranTalks http://bit.ly/17qL2Lk

Treaties and budgets - The exact number of new nuclear-tipped weapons the Air Force will build through the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent and Long-Range Standoff Weapon could change, a Pentagon official told Inside Defense. Current plans are based on the New START treaty, which expires in 2012. Full story here (paywall). http://bit.ly/1JD8jLw

Editors’ note - Early Warning will be offline the rest of the week as the editors participate in the Ploughshares Fund board meeting. We’ll return to our normal schedule Monday the 30th.

Quick Hits:

--“Massive leak said to reveal Mossad's 'true' assessment on Iran nuclear program,” by Barak Ravid for Haaretz. http://bit.ly/1A0P9Eb

--“Hungary-Russia nuclear power deal faces Brussels roadblock,” by Christian Oliver and Andrew Byrne for the Financial Times. http://on.ft.com/1BGiVVH

-- “Obama’s Nuclear Legacy #4: Give Nuclear Weapons a Sole Purpose,” by Stephen Young for All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/1LvbeBn

-- “CIA’s Nuclear-Bomb Sting Said to Spur Review in Iran Arms Case,” by Jonathan Tirone for Bloomberg Business. http://bloom.bg/1Ad6kXP

Events:

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on February 24 from 9:00 AM - noon. Located at the Hilton at Mark Center, Birch Conference Room, 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, VA. RSVP via e-mail to CRENEL@hq.doe.gov. http://1.usa.gov/1B2aXpx

--“The Past and Future of the Nuclear Enterprise.” Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Center for Strategic and International Studies. February 25 from 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM. Located at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE

--“Fiscal Year 2016 Budget Request for Strategic Forces,” Hearing of the House Armed Services Committee. February 26 at 1:30 PM. With Admiral Cecil D. Haney, USN Commander United States Strategic Command and Mr. Brian P. McKeon, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy at the Department of Defense as witnesses. Located in Rayburn HOB - 2118., Washington DC. Webcast available here. http://1.usa.gov/1LxACIJ

--“Wait...Nukes Cost HOW Much?” Webinar hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Featuring Theresa Shaffer, Physicians for Social Responsibility and guest speaker Laicie Heeley, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. February 25 from 8:00 PM - 9:00 PM EST. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vws3dJ

--“An Effective P5+1 Nuclear Deal with Iran and the Role of Congress.” Hosted by the Arms Control Association. Featuring Larry Hanauer of RAND, Richard Nephew of Columbia University and Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. Moderated by Daryl Kimball. Friday, February 27, from 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM. Located at the National Press Club, First Amendment Lounge, 529 14th Street NW (13th Floor), Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1Joqi8r