Why the Centrifuge Could Break Down the Talks

On the radar: Countering the centrifuge obsession; IAEA: Iran’s program still frozen; Kerry heads to Geneva; View from Tehran; Progress, but gaps remain; Cross out nukes; and the Movie that moved a President.

February 20, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren

The real threat - Counting Iran’s centrifuges “is a simple metric for success. And it is wrong,” writes Joe Cirincione, the President of the Ploughshares Fund in Defense One “The key to a solid deal is to couple limits on the number of centrifuges with other limits that prevent Iran from quickly building a bomb should it break the deal.”

--The real threat is not the number of centrifuges, but efforts to undermine the negotiations, the author concludes. “The break down of the talks at this stage would lead to the worst of all possible worlds… Whatever uncertainties a negotiated agreement may bring would still be far more manageable than the uncontrollable consequences of a new war in the Middle East and an unconstrained Iran.” http://bit.ly/19Je9uL

IAEA report - The latest IAEA report on Iran says the investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran’s past nuclear program remain unresolved. However, Iran has reduced its stockpile of low enriched uranium and refrained from testing advanced centrifuges, in compliance with the interim deal. The full IAEA report is here (pdf): http://bit.ly/1CORh6o

--For just the numbers (and charts!) see the IranFactFile.org: http://bit.ly/1wfx3jD

-- See Also: “Iran has stopped questionable nuclear centrifuge testing: IAEA,” by Shadia Nasralla for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1Bv2qLV

Save the date - Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif will meet in Geneva this weekend. The schedule for other bilaterals and meetings of the P5+1 is to be determined, AFP reports. http://yhoo.it/17Adji5

A different perspective - “Prolonging the negotiations may well be frustrating to the negotiators. But it has a much greater negative effect on all those who not only want but urgently need an agreement, namely the millions of Iranians who bear the brunt of the humanitarian problems in their country.” Adnan Tabatabai, recently returned from a trip to Iran, reports for LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1F2WmYW

Video - “'Nuke Map' shows how damaging nuclear explosion could be” from Fox News. http://bit.ly/1vlgmpP

Narrowing gaps - “There has been some progress,” in the Iran nuclear negotiations, UK foreign secretary Philip Hammond said in a recent interview, adding, “We need a clear, unambiguous signal from the Iranians that we are close on the area of enrichment in order to create the momentum that is needed.” http://on.ft.com/1DGwkfs

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: Strong partners against #nuclear testing: #Germany & CTBTO: StS Markus Ederer & ES Lassina Zerbo @GermanyDiplo

Red Cross on global zero - “By accident or by use, we are dealing with highly contagious, long-term effect issues, which easily can overwhelm humanitarian actors,” Peter Maurer, President of the International Committee of the Red Cross told the Asahi Shimbun. The upcoming NPT Review Conference is an opportunity “to remind the international community about the humanitarian impact, about the necessity to move forward on nuclear disarmament,” Maurer concludes. http://bit.ly/1Jt0GHp

Quick Hits:

--“How does Iran make nuclear decisions?” By Mohammad Ali Shabani in Al-Monitor http://bit.ly/1AY02Mq

--“On 'Existential' Threats,” by James Fallows in The Atlatic http://theatln.tc/1EdpuP9

--“Will there be a next generation in the fight for nuclear nonproliferation?” By Selim Can, Sazak Marie, Luise Schwarzenberg and Beenish Pervaiz in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1zTgUyo

--“U.S., Israeli national security advisers discuss Iran nuclear program,” from Reuters. http://reut.rs/1zt5N06

Events:

--"Nixon Legacy Forum: Detente & Arms Control with the USSR," featuring Phil Odeen, Jan Lodal, David Aaron and Winston Lord, former members of Nixon's National Security Council staff. February 23, 10:00 AM, National Archives Museum McGowan Theater, Constitution Ave. between 7th and 9th Sts. NW, Washington. RSVP online. Webcast on YouTube. http://bit.ly/1M9CBUJ

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on February 24 from 9:00 AM - noon. Located at the Hilton at Mark Center, Birch Conference Room, 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, VA. RSVP via e-mail to CRENEL@hq.doe.gov. http://1.usa.gov/1B2aXpx

--“The Past and Future of the Nuclear Enterprise.” Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Center for Strategic and International Studies. February 25 from 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM. Located at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE

--“Wait...Nukes Cost HOW Much?” Webinar hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Featuring Theresa Shaffer, Physicians for Social Responsibility and guest speaker Laicie Heeley, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. February 25 from 8:00 PM - 9:00 PM EST. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vws3dJ

--“An Effective P5+1 Nuclear Deal with Iran and the Role of Congress.” Hosted by the Arms Control Association. Featuring Larry Hanauer of RAND, Richard Nephew of Columbia University and Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. Moderated by Daryl Kimball. Friday, February 27, from 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM. Located at the National Press Club, First Amendment Lounge, 529 14th Street NW (13th Floor), Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1Joqi8r

Dessert:

For your weekend movie queue - “The Day After was an event—one a little less than half the country shared. Today’s most popular television programs are lucky to hit 20 million viewers. In 1983, this film was inescapable. It terrified and depressed almost all who watched it, including the president of the Unites States.” Matthew Gault for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1EdvNlU