Trouble Ahead for the Air Force’s New Nuclear Cruise Missile

Missile without a mission - The Pentagon wants to buy a new nuclear cruise missile at a hefty price - $1.8 billion over the next five years, according to the Air Force’s latest budget request. Beyond the price tag, there’s a strategic problem: it’s far from clear that the new missile is necessary.

--“Lawmakers argue the flying branch has not properly justified the missile’s mission objectives, and that it goes against the spirit of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review. Others contend that having a conventional and nuclear-tipped cruise missile could increase the chances of strategic miscalculation during times of heightened tensions.” James Drew has the full story for War Is Boring.
http://bit.ly/1zmoPoT

Tensions rising - “With Mr. Netanyahu maneuvering to survive a March 17 election, and Mr. Obama pressing for a breakthrough agreement that could end three decades of enmity with Iran and reduce the chances of a military confrontation, it seems that Washington and Jerusalem are engaging in the diplomatic equivalent of posting notes to each other on the refrigerator door.” The New York Times’ David Sanger on U.S.-Israeli tensions and the impact on the Iran talks. http://nyti.ms/1BlMfR9

Tweet - @NPRinskeep: Wasn't scientific, but 20+ interviews in Iran suggested widespread eagerness for a nuclear deal. http://n.pr/1JnvwkO @MorningEdition

Arbitrary deadlines - In the leadup to Iraq, “political posturing and the embrace of arbitrary deadlines obscured the facts and drove our country into disastrous war with repercussions still playing out today” with Iran, writes WAND Executive Director Susan Shaer in The Huffington Post. “Arbitrary deadlines won't help… They will just create unnecessary crisis points and force unreasoned decisions.”

--“We expect Congress to do everything in its power to avoid another war. Yet that is the path we will be on if members of Congress insist on disrupting and undermining the diplomatic process [with Iran]… so long as negotiations are ongoing, we are winning.” http://huff.to/1FYaeoh

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic:
Our Nuclear Notebook: Counting nuclear warheads in the public interest http://ow.ly/IH40t #nukes #proliferation

Reining in Pyongyang - “Although it is unlikely that anything Russia, China, or any other country does regarding North Korea will induce this regime to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions, international pressure by Russia and other countries seems to have discouraged more nuclear or long-range ballistic missile tests since 2013,” writes Richard Weitz in The Diplomat.

--“With Kim expecting to visit Moscow in May, the DPRK is less likely to conduct another nuclear test or additional provocations before then. Afterwards, he would have to weigh a potential loss of his new Russian ties when contemplating future disruptive steps.” http://bit.ly/1Al8unf

Alternatives - Efforts to undermine the Iran nuclear negotiations won’t benefit the U.S. or Israel, argues Barbara Slavin in Voice of America. “The alternative is not a better deal that would magically erase Iran’s entire uranium enrichment capacity or punish its economy in perpetuity. Instead, the alternative could well be an Iran that resumes higher levels of enrichment and potentially a second, plutonium pathway to a bomb while economic sanctions erode.” http://bit.ly/1AScmxM

Quick Hits:

--“Khamenei vows firm Iranian nuclear stand, warns on gas exports,” Mehrdad Balali and Parisa Hafezi for Reuters. http://reut.rs/17q2cYV

--“U.S. Optimism on Iran Nuclear Deal Rises,” Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1vFy2qP

Events:

--Annual “Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” February 17-20 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, 2500 Calvert St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zG0IUF

--“Governing Uranium: From Pit to Port.” Featuring Cindy Vestergaard, Danish Institute for International Studies; Melissa Mann, URENCO USA Inc.; and Sharon Squassoni, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). February 19 from x 9:00-10:00 a.m. Located at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, 212-A/B Conference Room, Washington. RSVP by email at PPP@CSIS.org http://bit.ly/1vDzv0R

--"Nixon Legacy Forum: Detente & Arms Control with the USSR," featuring Phil Odeen, Jan Lodal, David Aaron and Winston Lord, former members of Nixon's National Security Council staff. February 23, 10:00 AM, National Archives Museum McGowan Theater, Constitution Ave. between 7th and 9th Sts. NW, Washington. RSVP online. Webcast on YouTube. http://bit.ly/1M9CBUJ

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on February 24 from 9:00 AM - noon. Located at the Hilton at Mark Center, Birch Conference Room, 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, VA. RSVP via e-mail to CRENEL@hq.doe.gov. http://1.usa.gov/1B2aXpx

--“The Past and Future of the Nuclear Enterprise.” Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Center for Strategic and International Studies. February 25 from 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM. Located at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE

--“Wait...Nukes Cost HOW Much?” Webinar hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Featuring Theresa Shaffer, Physicians for Social Responsibility and guest speaker Laicie Heeley, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. February 25 from 8:00 PM - 9:00 PM EST. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vws3dJ

--“An Effective P5+1 Nuclear Deal with Iran and the Role of Congress.” Hosted by the Arms Control Association. Featuring Larry Hanauer of RAND, Richard Nephew of Columbia University and Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. Moderated by Daryl Kimball. Friday, February 27, from 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM. Located at the National Press Club, First Amendment Lounge, 529 14th Street NW (13th Floor), Washington DC. RSVP online.
http://bit.ly/1Joqi8r

Dessert:

Any volunteers? - The Air Force briefly considered turning the A-10 Warthog into a nuclear strike plane. The problem? “While the aircraft certainly could have delivered the bombs to their intended targets, the pilots probably couldn’t make it back alive,” writes Joseph Trevithick for War Is Boring. http://bit.ly/1Fsx3D5