Analyzing the Alternatives: Why an Iran Deal Is In U.S. Interests

On the radar: If Congress kills the talks; Secretary Carter; A constructive role for Congress; DOE shell games; Remaining gaps; Darker side of the India deal; and Radiation leak update.

February 13, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Consequences - “Congress should think long and hard before it tries to subvert the Iran nuclear talks,” write Ilan Goldenberg and Robert Kaplan in The National Interest.

--If the talks break down, the potential consequences include: Israeli strikes that could provoke Iranian retaliation and draw the U.S. into a military conflict; an Iranian dash for a bomb; historic missed opportunities, including cooperation in the fight against ISIS and al-Qeada; and the rise of hardliners in Tehran.

--“Let's wait a bit longer to see what kind of a deal, if any, the Administration manages to strike with Iran,” the authors conclude. “There will be enough time then for Congress and others to act in order to avoid a sell-out of our principles.” http://bit.ly/1AvKyiI

Carter confirmed - “The Senate on Thursday confirmed Ashton B. Carter to be the next defense secretary,” reports Emmarie Huetteman for The New York Times. The 93 to 5 vote shows “a striking scene of accord as tensions mount” over other nominations. http://nyti.ms/1Mj6eDm

--For an analysis of Secretary Carter’s transformation from nuclear policy innovator to triad champion, see Jeffrey Lewis’s recent piece for Foreign Policy, “The Nuclear Trials of Ashton Carter.” http://atfp.co/1Fc0pCF

Be bold - “It may sound crazy, but Congress could actually take a bold move that would allow it to get everything that Congress members claim to want in the negotiations, while actually helping to move along, rather than just scuttle, the talks,” write Trita Parsi and Tyler Cullis in Foreign Policy.

--“Congress could play a productive role… [by granting] the president authorization to lift the sanctions on a timeline agreed to at the negotiations and only on the condition that Iran has scrupulously adhered to its own commitments under any nuclear deal.” http://atfp.co/1DNtB48

Moniz, mo problems - There is “a systemic problem of egregious cost overruns at NNSA,” charged Senator Al Franken (D-MN) during yesterday’s hearing on the Department of Energy’s FY2016 budget. “What are you doing to address these...overruns and these skyrocketing costs?” Sen. Franken asked Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz.

--According to Moniz the problem is largely a function of bad, or premature, cost estimates. “There has to be better discipline in not putting out numbers that just have no grounding in reality,” he said. Watch the full hearing here, with the exchange between Senator Franken and Secretary Moniz at around the 2:22 mark. http://1.usa.gov/1znxPwk

Tweet - @Cirincione: Video of my interview on @bpshow today. Topics: AUMF, #Ukraine, #IranTalks & more (2:39:10 mark) http://t.co/AcM7dGacFt

Talks update - “As they wait to see if Iran agrees to move forward with one of the proposed formulas [for enrichment capacity that would meet Washington’s requirement of one year breakout time], Iran is pressing for earlier sanctions relief in a deal. The two sides are also haggling over the duration of a deal, with the P5+1 reportedly asking for 15 years, and Iran for a shorter deal.” Laura Rozen reports for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/173fCtZ

Budget analysis - “With additional Defense Dept. funding the NNSA’s nuclear weapons budget is slated to increase to $9.8 billion by 2020, nearly double that of the Cold War average,” according to a new report from Nuke Watch New Mexico. The budget request includes $4 billion for LANL plutonium pit production while keeping cleanup and dismantlement funding flat. Full analysis here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1uOZ97Y

Loose cannon - A deal struck between Australia and India could mean that Australian uranium will end up in India’s nuclear weapons program, reports Michael Safi for The Guardian. Former Australian diplomat and IAEA chair Ronald Walker says “the agreement to sell uranium to India ‘drastically changes longstanding policy’ on safeguards and risked playing ‘fast and loose’ with nuclear weapons.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/19eUi6v

--See Also: “The Darker Side of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal,” by Amitai Etzioni in The Diplomat. http://bit.ly/1DoD4yo

“Only” one - “New video appears to confirm that the radiation leak at the federal government's underground nuclear waste dump was limited to a single drum of waste, a U.S. Energy Department official said Thursday.” The Associated Press reports. http://nyti.ms/1Elxz1H

Happy trails - Ploughshares Fund research assistant and Early Warning co-editor Jacob Marx is leaving for a year-long fellowship at the Project On Government Oversight. Happy trails!

Quick Hits:

--“The Possible Outcomes of Nuclear Negotiations With Iran,” by Raghida Dergham in the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/17t9g8c

--“Russia’s Nuclear Forces Begin Their Largest Drill Ever,” by Zachary Keck in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1KTikPU

--“Korean Unification: Before the Bonanza,” by Jennifer Lind for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1E59uwp

--“A year later: Responding to problems in the ICBM force,” by Adam Lowther in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1ywKtFR

Events:

--“Nuclear Bargains Reviewed: Washington's Cold War Nuclear Deals and What They Mean for Iran. Featuring Or Rabinowitz, King's College London. February 13 from 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM. Located at the Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1v1CLmy

--“Nuclear Enterprise Update: An NNSA Perspective," featuring Frank Klotz, Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). February 17, 8:00 AM - 9:00 AM, Air Force Association Boardroom, 1501 Lee Highway, Fourth Floor, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1CdtuKS.

--Annual “Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” February 17-20 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, 2500 Calvert St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zG0IUF

--"Nixon Legacy Forum: Detente & Arms Control with the USSR," featuring Phil Odeen, Jan Lodal, David Aaron and Winston Lord, former members of Nixon's National Security Council staff. February 23, 10:00 AM, National Archives Museum McGowan Theater, Constitution Ave. between 7th and 9th Sts. NW, Washington. RSVP online. Webcast on YouTube. http://bit.ly/1M9CBUJ

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on February 24 from 9:00 AM - noon. Located at the Hilton at Mark Center, Birch Conference Room, 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, VA. RSVP via e-mail to CRENEL@hq.doe.gov. http://1.usa.gov/1B2aXpx

--“The Past and Future of the Nuclear Enterprise.” Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Center for Strategic and International Studies. February 25 from 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM. Located at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE

--“Wait...Nukes Cost HOW Much?” Webinar hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Featuring Theresa Shaffer, Physicians for Social Responsibility and guest speaker Laicie Heeley, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. February 25 from 8:00 PM - 9:00 PM EST. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vws3dJ