President Obama: Diplomacy Working, Give the Talks More Time

On the radar: Obama talks Iran; A negotiator’s perspective on sanctions; More IAEA talks; A SANE approach to nuclear spending; North Korean test; WaPo’s flawed editorial; and a trip down Soviet memory lane.

February 9, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

From the President - “Iran is negotiating seriously... and they have made, so far, real concessions in the negotiations,” President Barack Obama said in an interview with Matthew Yglesias of Vox. “We have been able to freeze the program for the first time and, in fact, roll back some elements of its program, like its stockpiles of ultra highly enriched uranium.”

--“Nobody denies that Iran right now really is abiding by the terms of our agreement, so we're not losing ground. They're not surreptitiously developing a weapon while we talk... For us to give two [or] three months to figure that out makes sense.” Read the full interview here. http://bit.ly/16Fl2ec

Nephew: no new sanctions - “There is a role for Congress to play, but lawmakers should fulfill their oversight role without being unnecessarily prescriptive and, having set expectations for negotiators already, should leave the exact contours of a deal to our scientists, experts and diplomats.” Read Richard Nephew, a former member of the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, on why now’s not the time for new sanctions. Via CNN. http://cnn.it/1AOrEEI

Intense IAEA talks - Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency have agreed to intensify high-level talks aiming to resolve concerns over Iran’s past nuclear program, IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said after a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

--Amano told Reuters that he expects the talks will become more frequent, although the date of the next meeting has not yet been set. The next IAEA report is expected later this month. http://reut.rs/1A5wlKx

Secretary Kerry - “The only chance I can see of an extension [after the informal March deadline] would be that you really have the outlines of the agreement,” Secretary of State John Kerry said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “If we’re not able to make the fundamental decisions that have to be made over the course of the next weeks... I think it would be impossible to extend. I don’t think we would want to extend at that point.” Full transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/1vdCzRh

Zarif and Khamenei - Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, coming from a meeting with Secretary Kerry in Munich, said Iran also opposes an extension and that “all the sanctions must be lifted at once” if an agreement is reached. The timing of sanctions relief is a main sticking point in the talks, with the West preferring gradual lifting in exchange for Iranian concessions. http://on.wsj.com/173Gmvl

--Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader hinted he may back a compromise deal, with a big caveat: “I would go along with any agreement that could be made. Of course, if it is not a bad deal. No agreement is better than an agreement which runs contrary to our nation's interests," he told Iranian air force personnel. Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/173hBzd

Bring back SANE - “Nuclear weapons have been useless in the real wars the U.S. has fought for the past 14 years in the Middle East....Yet, limited funds are being diverted from these vital purposes to support an out-of-date nuclear policy,” write Stimson Center’s Barry Blechman and Kara Junttila in Roll Call.

--“A new bill along these lines [of the Smarter Approach to Nuclear Expenditures Act introduced by Senators Edward J. Markey (D-MA) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) last year] with bipartisan support could create a more appropriate and fiscally sustainable nuclear program… It would free up resources, moreover, for maintaining the U.S. edge in conventional military technologies.” http://bit.ly/1DwIs2N

Mousavian on a deal - Iran has fulfilled its nuclear promises, now America should make good on sanctions relief, argues Seyed Hossein Mousavian in USA Today. In addition to complying with the JPOA, Iran has agreed in principle to a host of confidence building measures such as capping enrichment at 5% and foregoing reprocessing at the Arak facility. “That's the manifestation of Iranian goodwill, flexibility and compromise… Will President Obama exhibit the necessary audacity” and make a deal? Full column here. http://usat.ly/1DWTQCS

--See Also: “Creative thinking gets Iran nuclear negotiations closer to a deal,” by Julian Borger in The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1KAhE3E

North Korean ballistics - “North Korea’s launch of five missile may be more than just a typical response ahead of annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises, analysts and officials said Monday. The missiles, which flew about 125 miles Sunday before splashing down off North Korea’s eastern coast…[could put] USFK’s Camp Pyeongtaek and Osan Air Base in inland shooting range.” Full story by Yoo Kyong Chang and Erik Slavin, for Stars and Stripes. http://1.usa.gov/1A5Aoql

Tweet - @FAScientists: The Real Danger in Nuclear Modernization via @Diplomat_APAC: ow.ly/IJXlQ

Reckless - “The absence of any plausible proposed alternative [recent Washington Post Iran] editorial ]—is its most basic shortcoming. Instead it is just a collection of ways of saying, “We don't like where these negotiations are going,” writes Paul Pillar in The National Interest.

--“Let's indeed compare whatever agreement is reached with the alternative,” Pillar concludes. “The true alternative is no agreement at all—and that means no special restrictions on, and no intrusive inspections of, the Iranian nuclear program.” http://bit.ly/1Dcm2n6

Downwinder compensation - Idaho Senator Mike Crapo (R) is submitting his “downwinder” bill for radiation fallout compensation for the 7th time. “‘Downwinders’ are people who suffer health problems from the radioactive fallout of nuclear tests in the Nevada desert from 1951 to 1962.” A compensation fund has doled out $923 million in the last 25 years, but none in Idaho, where four of the five counties most affected by the tests are located. Full story here by Bill Dentzer for The Idaho Statesman. http://1.usa.gov/1M62Xal

Quick Hits:

--“Iran tells West President Rouhani at risk if talks fail: Iranian officials,” by Parisa Hafezi and Louis Charbonneau for Reuters. http://reut.rs/16usF7j

--“India’s Bilateral Obligations,” by Mark Hibbs for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1uoqy0d

--“SRNL technology to help monitor nuclear activities,” by Derrek Asberry for the Aiken Standard. http://bit.ly/1zoWr4h

--“UK concerned over 'threatening' Russian nuclear strategy,” by Adrian Croft for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1AaBfV4

Events:

--“A Visit to Tehran: Outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations." Featuring former Rep. Jim Slattery (KS). February 9 at 2:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington DC. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Df9zNk

--“Iran Nuclear Talks: Truths and Tall Tales from Tehran and Tel-Aviv." Featuring Ori Rabinowitz, author of Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals, and Ariane Tabatabai, Georgetown University. February 11 from 10:00 a.m.-Noon. Located at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington DC. RSVP by February 9 online. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k

--“Nuclear Bargains Reviewed: Washington's Cold War Nuclear Deals and What They Mean for Iran. Featuring Or Rabinowitz, King's College London. February 13 from 1:00-2:30 p.m. Located at the Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1v1CLmy

--Annual “Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” February 17-20 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, 2500 Calvert St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zG0IUF

Dessert:

Soviet red, with a radioactive glow - “On Sept. 14, 1954, 45,000 soldiers from the Soviet Army’s 270th Rifle Division and other units took shelter in trenches and bunkers as they waited for the order to advance. The 270th Rifles had fought at Stalingrad in 1942 and at Kursk in ’43. On this day, just north of the Russian-Kazakhstan border, it was about to become the first Soviet formation to train for nuclear war.” Full story by Elliott Carter for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1vbmAmA

Cribs, nuclear bunker edition - “The six-and-a-half acres of land are likely to be the main drawer for buyers, but they come with an, almost, hidden extra – a nuclear bunker.” As Hilary Osborne reports for The Guardian, the bunker, located below the arable fields of Burton Joyce, Nottinghamshire, is up for auction at a guide price of £75,000. “Possible uses could include storage space, conversion to a wine cellar or a recreation of the original bunker.” The auction will take place on March 26th. http://bit.ly/1DwUUzD