How Congress Could Support - Or Kill - an Iran Nuclear Deal

On the radar: Spectrum of options; Centrifuge and Sanction fixations; Not quite a deadline; Obama’s nuclear buildup; and Iran still doesn’t have an ICBM in 2015.

February 3, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Congress’ role - Congress has a spectrum of options for influencing the outcome of negotiations with Iran - including facilitating a deal with oversight or scuttling it with sanctions or a vote of disapproval. Larry Hanauer of RAND analyzed the how Congress can play its role and how congressional action would affect the implementation of a deal, concluding that “Congress is most likely to take a middle-of-the-road approach that enables the administration to provide sufficient sanctions relief to secure a deal with Tehran.”

--“Once an agreement has been reached, congressional opposition to a deal could produce harmful consequences. Legislation that prevents the United States from following through on commitments made at the negotiating table could encourage Iran to resume high-level enrichment (which has been frozen, at least temporarily, during negotiations on a comprehensive settlement) and undermine global support for continued or expanded sanctions.”

--“These developments could simultaneously exacerbate the nuclear threat, leave the United States internationally isolated, and bolster arguments for the use of military force to degrade or eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. The potential for such undesirable outcomes could make even the most ardent opponents hesitant to block implementation of a deal.” Full report here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1CsE3yF

Fixations - To get a nuclear agreement that advances U.S. interests, policymakers will need to overcome the fixation on “breakout” times and the idea of sanctions for the sake of sanctions, writes Paul Pillar in The National Interest.

--“If sanctions get in the way of achieving such an agreement rather than facilitating the agreement, they are useless. Or rather, they are worse than useless, because of the costs they impose on the United States.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ED3sXi

Only real deadline on 6/30 - “Some US administration allies are puzzled that what they consider a soft deadline for a framework agreement for a final Iran nuclear deal [March 24] has seemingly become the de facto deadline, rather than the June 30, 2015 deadline that Iran and the six world powers agreed to in November.” Full story by Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1CsFCMV

Tweet - @GerardAraud: I can state it. France is not worried in any way by the negotiations between the US and Iran. Trust and agreement.

Nuclear bonanza - The president’s budget request, released yesterday, was a bonanza for nuclear weapons programs. The Ohio-class submarine and Long Range Strike Bomber received multi-million dollar plus-ups. The request also adds $33 million over last year’s appropriation for the Long Range Stand-Off missile and adds $667 million to the NNSA weapons activities account.

--“The administration’s budget request is a deeply disappointing and a lost opportunity to make common sense adjustments to the current nuclear weapons spending trajectory. What’s more, the spending plans call for a nuclear force that would exceed what the president and Pentagon have determined is necessary to deter a nuclear attack against the United States or its allies.” Full analysis from Kingston Reif of the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1CsMAl7

--More budget coverage:

--“Proposed budget would increase UPF funding in 2016 to $430M,” reports Frank Munger for the Knoxville News Sentinel. http://bit.ly/18KiPzR

--“Obama proposes to boost spending for nuclear armaments” by Douglas Birch of the Center for Public Integrity. http://bit.ly/1z7RPzj

--“Budget proposal for MOX facility remains level while study is underway,” reports Meg Mirshak for The Augusta Chronicle. http://bit.ly/1K7AQFI

Tweet - @TomCollina: New NNSA cruise missile warhead (W80-4) up from $9.4M to $195M—what’s the rush? http://1.usa.gov/1u28HMo (p89)

Not an ICBM - Iran’s launch of a satellite into orbit on February 2 “will undoubtedly confuse the debate over whether or not Iran will soon have an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. It should not; this was not an ICBM-related event,” writes Greg Thielmann for Arms Control Now. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/18yPmc9

Talking about talks - Delegates from Seoul and Beijing are set to meet on Wednesday to discuss the resumption of nuclear talks with Pyongyang, which were abandoned more than six years ago, reports Shuan Sim for the International Business Times. “Efforts to denuclearize North Korea have stepped up in the recent months as Pyongyang showed signs of trying to restart its Yongbyon nuclear reactor.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1zxHPDa

Quick Hits:

--“Special pays to hit $921M in 2016,” by Stephen Losey for the Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1BS7nsZ

--“Fact-checking Bibi and Company’s Talking Points on Iran,” by Marsha Cohen in LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1x6w5Dl

--“Obama’s budget proposal would slash funds for WIPP, keep LANL level,” By Staci Matlock in The Santa Fe New Mexican. http://bit.ly/1D9yUKX

Events:

--"Reinvent Nuclear Security - An Alternative Future for the National Labs," featuring Adam Steltzner, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Peter Schwartz, Salesforce.com; Gregory Benford, University of California, Irvine; and Paul Carroll, Ploughshares Fund. February 3, 2:00-3:30 p.m. EST. Online webinar sponsored by N Square. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1HLGC1Y

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Ashton Carter to be Defense Secretary. February 4 at 9:30 a.m. Located in G-50, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington DC.. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k

--"And Then What? Imagining the Middle East if Nuclear Negotiations with Iran Fail," featuring Gary Samore, Belfer Center; Shai Feldman, Brandeis University; Alexei Arbatov, Carnegie Moscow Center; and Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Princeton University. February 4, Noon-2:00 p.m. Harvard University, Belfer Center Library, Littauer 369, Cambridge, MA. http://bit.ly/1uR68aZ

--"A Visit to Tehran: Outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations," featuring former Rep. Jim Slattery (KS). February 9, 2:00 p.m., Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Df9zNk

--"Iran Nuclear Talks: Truths and Tall Tales from Tehran and Tel-Aviv." Featuring Ori Rabinowitz, author of Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals, and Ariane Tabatabai, Georgetown University. February 11 from 10:00 a.m.-Noon. Located at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington DC. RSVP by February 9 online. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k