Obama on Iran: Don’t Undermine Diplomacy at This Critical Time

On the radar: Obama interview with Zakaria; Sen. Murphy on a deal; Dagan criticizes Bibi speech; Banking committee moves sanctions bill; Activity at Yongbyon; LRSO AoA done; Fake nuke on the Mall; and Don’t try to sell nuclear plans.

January 29, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Winning argument - "I've said before that we will take no deal over a bad deal,” said President Obama in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. "But if I can prove that the deal we've put in place assures us through indisputable verification mechanisms that Iran cannot achieve breakout capacity, if I've got a bunch of scientists and nuclear experts saying this assures us that Iran is not on the brink of being a nuclear weapons power, then that's a public debate we should have."

--“And I will then ask every member of Congress to ask why would we reject that deal and prefer a potential military option that would be less effective in constraining Iran's nuclear program and would have extraordinarily ramifications at a time when we've already got too many conflicts in the Middle East," he said. "And I'm pretty confident I can win that argument."

--“For us to undermine diplomacy at this critical time for no good reason is a mistake and that what we need to do is to finish up this round of negotiations, put the pressure on Iran to say yes to what the international community is calling for.” Video available here. http://cnn.it/1zFjfDK

Deal vs alternative - "There are those of us that believe we can put into place a series of intrusive inspections that would give us the ability to detect the moment at which they breach the deal and start moving towards a nuclear weapon. And it`s much better than the alternative, which is walk away from negotiations, and effectively leave military action as the only alternative,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) in an interview on MSNBC. http://on.msnbc.com/1ERAwrP

Tweet - @WinWithoutWar: Amb. John Limbert & @natsecnet's John Bradshaw: "Why new #sanctions against #Iran would backfire” http://t.co/0SM2RkyRUM

Dagan on Bibi’s stunt - "Netanyahu's position will not change the West's position on the Iranian issue,” said former Mossad chief Meir Dagan at an event at the Tel Aviv Museum on Wednesday. “The Americans are already aware of Netanyahu's position. I don't think that if he goes and speaks it'll change Obama's mind. I don't think he'll change Congress' position either." Gilad Morag has the full story for Ynetnews. http://bit.ly/1ErZ1OT

Sanctions markup - When the Senate Banking Committee “almost certainly approves a new bill to increase pressure on Iran Thursday, some Republican senators are set to try and make the legislation's sanctions tougher,” writes Josh Rogin for Bloomberg View. The strategy could jeopardize fragile Democratic support for the bill and “complicate future attempts to overcome President Barack Obama’s threatened veto.” Full story here. http://bv.ms/1yQyCa6

Tweet - @OswaldRachel: As expected, Banking committee passes Iran sanctions bill by a wide margin 18-4 @CQnow

To sanction, or not to sanction - “Sanctions on Iran were once the rare point of consensus in such highly divided bodies as the U.S. Congress or the European Union. But long gone are the days when an Iran sanctions bill would pass the Senate with a 100 to 0 vote,” writes Ali Vaez for Al Jazeera. The reason for this discord is that Obama and his international partners believe that applying additional sanctions at this point “risks destroying a functional interim agreement that both sides have honored and that has set significant limits on Iran’s nuclear work.”

--When debating whether or not to apply more sanctions, Western lawmakers should ask themselves the following: Does it make strategic sense? Would it sabotage the interim deal? Would it split the coalition and bolster Iranian hardliners? Read the full analysis here. http://alj.am/1z7GwfE

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: Out of the Nuclear Shadow: Scientists and the Struggle against the Bomb #science http://t.co/rdp3AOd08P

New cruise missile - The Pentagon has completed its analysis of alternatives for the Long Range Standoff (LRSO), a new cruise missile planned to replace today’s AGM-86 Air-Launched Cruise Missile, Global Strike Command leader Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson said today. “Its recommendations are being reviewed at top Pentagon levels.” The LRSO “will be delivered first as a nuclear weapon and later in a conventional variant.” Full story from Bill Sweetman for Aviation Week here. http://bit.ly/1EROjyr

Life-size - “On Saturday afternoon, the group Global Zero, which advocates for nuclear disarmament worldwide, will stage a protest outside the White House with a ‘life-size, four-story inflated nuclear missile’ to illustrate the humanitarian threat posed by nuclear weapons.” As Emma Roller reports for National Journal, “The name of the protest, ‘No $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal,’ refers to the Congressional Budget Office's 30-year projection of the costs to upgrade the U.S. nuclear arsenal. http://bit.ly/1A2gifO

Yongbyon activity - “Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates new activity at the 5 MWe Plutonium Production Reactor at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center after an almost five-month hiatus in operations from late August until mid-December 2014.” Chris Hansen and 38 North report that “One possibility is that the North is in the early stages of an effort to restart the reactor [but] it remains too soon to reach a definitive conclusion.” http://bit.ly/1Er5qd1

North Korea positions - “A top U.S. diplomat handling North Korea said Thursday that Russia remained committed to denuclearizing the reclusive state, despite a possible visit by the North's leader Kim Jong-un in May,” reports the Yonhap News Agency. Full story here http://bit.ly/1Ers4lA

Busted - “A former Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist who pleaded guilty to trying to help Venezuela develop a nuclear weapon was sentenced Wednesday to five years in prison,” reports Russell Contreras of the Associated Press. Pedro Leonardo Mascheroni pleaded guilty to offering an undercover FBI agent to “help develop a nuclear weapon for Venezuela...The U.S. government is not alleging Venezuela sought U.S. secrets.” Full Story here. http://abcn.ws/1Cg5njs

Quick Hits:

--“N. Korea demanded $10 billion for summit: ex-Seoul leader,” by Hyung-Jin Kim for the Associated Press. http://1.usa.gov/1v9iYXX

--“Scowcroft and Brzezinski's Five Most Interesting Ideas,” by Jacob Marx and Joe Cirincione in the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1CPpHrd

--“Can Iran’s New U.N. Ambassador Get Tehran Relief From U.N. Sanctions?” By Colum Lynch in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1v6nnLd

--“The Middle East’s Next Nuclear Power?” By David Schnecker in Politico Magazine http://politi.co/1uF79mv

--“Support the Austria pledge,” by Seth Baum for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.http://bit.ly/1y9NtZm

--“Iran’s Overdue ICBM,” by Greg Thielmann for Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/18yPmc9

--“64 years after nuclear tests, some downwinders still wait for compensation,” by Jessica Boehm in Cronkite News. http://bit.ly/1CAE4zd

Events:

--“Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP http://bit.ly/1tGp8bD.

--“Debunk the Myths of Iran Sanctions,” featuring Kate Gould, Legislative Associate for Middle East Policy, Friends Committee on National Legislation. Hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Wed, Jan 28, 2015 8:30 PM - 9:30 PM EST. Register http://bit.ly/1sWA1uX.

--“An Assessment of Russian Concerns About Missile Defenses In Europe,” Featuring Timur Kadyshev, Center of Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies, Moscow. January 29 at Noon EST. Online webinar sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists. http://bit.ly/1BovLm3

--"Avoiding Disaster in a New Era of Superpower Tension." Featuring Nikolas Gvosdev, U.S. Naval War College; Fiona Hill, Brookings Institution; Ali Wyne, RAND; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 29 from 6:30-8:00 p.m. Located at the FHI Conference Center, Eighth Floor, 1825 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington DC. Sponsored by PS21: Project for the Study of the 21st Century. RSVP. http://ow.ly/HHuLJ

--“Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal.” Hosted by Global Zero, from 1:00-3:00 p.m. on January 31. Located at the Ellipse (south of the White House), Washington, DC. RSVP http://bit.ly/1BySK2Q.

--“The Nuclear Enterprise: Past and Future." Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff. February 3 from 9:30-10:30 a.m. Located at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Second Floor Hess Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE.

--“A Visit to Tehran: former Congressman shares his outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations.” Featuring former Congressman Jim Slattery. February 9 from 2:00 - 3:00 p.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC. Register here. http://bit.ly/15JYZ64