Obama in SOTU: New Sanctions on Iran “All But Guarantee That Diplomacy Fails”

January 21, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Obama on Iran - “Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran, where, for the first time in a decade, we’ve halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material,” said President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address. “Between now and this spring, we have a chance to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that prevents a nuclear-armed Iran; secures America and our allies — including Israel; while avoiding yet another Middle East conflict.”

--“There are no guarantees that negotiations will succeed, and I keep all options on the table to prevent a nuclear Iran. But new sanctions passed by this Congress, at this moment in time, will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails — alienating America from its allies; and ensuring that Iran starts up its nuclear program again. It doesn’t make sense. That is why I will veto any new sanctions bill that threatens to undo this progress. The American people expect us to only go to war as a last resort, and I intend to stay true to that wisdom.” Full text here. http://bit.ly/1AK6zG0

Reactions -

--Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): “I strongly support the president’s call to Congress to refrain from imposing additional sanctions on Iran. New sanctions now would violate the interim agreement, collapse the negotiations and take us out of lockstep with the international community. “We have a responsibility to support the diplomatic negotiations and see them through. If they fail to achieve a deal, then we should consider sanctions and next steps, but we shouldn’t prejudge that outcome.” http://1.usa.gov/1J69OxW

--Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY): “I think one the biggest things about foreign policy is that you should think before you act, and that’s one of the themes that I’ll have tonight is: First, do no harm… My fear is that in eagerness, you know, to put more sanctions on those who are overly eager… could get us to a point where there are only two solutions: either Iran gets a bomb or there’s war, whereas right now we have a third solution which is a little better.” http://bit.ly/1sYmRxx

--Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): “We all agree that Iran must never become a nuclear power, and the talks we are now engaged in are our best hope for achieving that goal. The U.S. and our partners have been making significant progress, and it would be deeply harmful for Congress to impose new sanctions now and risk giving the Iranians an excuse to walk away from the table.” http://1.usa.gov/1um3r10

Tweet - @ChrisMurphyCT: It would be foolish of Congress to impose new sanctions & risk giving #Iran an excuse to walk away from these critical talks. #SOTU

Keeping promises - The IAEA said on Tuesday that “Iran is honoring its commitment not to expand atomic activities that could be used to make weapons while it negotiates with six world powers on a lasting nuclear deal.” Full report via the Associated Press. http://bit.ly/1xyaox7

Don’t bank on it - On Tuesday, “The top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, came out forcefully against what he called a ‘rush’ to [Iran] action under newly minted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY...’I don't know what the rush is,’ Brown told Al-Monitor.

--Brown’s “comments underscore budding Democratic opposition to the new bill, which [Sen.] Menendez and Kirk wrote to attract a large, bipartisan swath of senators.” Full story by Julian Pecquet. http://bit.ly/1BdTx6o

--See Also: “Brown and Portman should not support Iran sanctions that would derail critical nuclear-weapons negotiations,” writes Norman Robbins in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. http://bit.ly/183ezey

Dems reluctant on sanctions - “Facing heavy pressure from President Obama, Senate Democrats on Tuesday signaled they have reservations about moving forward with Iran sanctions legislation.” As Kristina Wong reports for The Hill, “Some senators who had previously backed a sanctions bill treaded carefully when asked whether they support holding a vote on legislation before the Iran talks wrap up in June.”

--“‘Well let's wait and see when there's a bill. There's no bill yet,’ said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY). ‘Let's wait and see how the whole thing plays out.’ ‘There's a question and a debate about timing, and that's something we should continue to discuss,’ said Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). ‘I don't have a sense that there's anything that will happen in the near term.’" Full story. http://bit.ly/1sYorzv

Tweet - @TomCollina: Blinken: If Congress had to approve the #Iran interim #nuclear deal it may have rejected it. But time proved it a good deal.

Too stealthy - The Air Force’s Long Range Strike-Bomber is decades from deployment, but it’s impact is already being felt throughout the Pentagon and the defense industry. “The program is targeting a production line of 80-100 planes. It will replace the fleet of B-52 and B-1 bombers.” But what makes this program remarkable, aside from the $550 million per plane price tag, is just how little is known about it.”

--As Aaron Mehta reports for Defense News, the “program is stealthy, literally and figuratively. Few details are actually known about the bomber's capabilities or design.” The lack of transparency and oversight may augur “challenges ahead as the bomber moves from a black, hypothetical program to one actually bending metal — and one that can become a high profile target for government spending watchdogs and the nonproliferation community.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1yxhDIx

A history of waste - The former Hanford plutonium plant has become the largest nuclear clean-up site in the Western hemisphere. As early as 1990, TIME recounted stories of people living downwind who had thyroid disease and cancer, caused, they believed, by the plant’s emissions. In 1991, the DOE resolved to clean up the Hanford site, but 24 years later, the cleanup remains in the planning stages and costs taxpayers a billion dollars a year. Full story by Kate Brown. http://ti.me/1Cbq0w5

Quick Hits:

--“Cuba and Iran: A New Era for American Diplomacy?” by Ambassadors William Leurs and Thomas Pickering in the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/15sv4zi

--“Russia Orders Snap Test of Nuclear Missiles,” by Damien Sharkov for Newsweek. http://bit.ly/1E1YKC4

--“Missileers are now highest-paid lieutenants thanks to bonuses,” reports Brian Everstine in the Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1usCsXe

--“Russia says progress on Iran nuclear talks possible by end-June,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/1L0rVr5

--“Continued concerns on Y-12 ‘operational discipline,’” reports Frank Munger for Atomic City Underground. http://bit.ly/1C5NdQ5

--“Why bombing Iran would be a strategic mistake for Israel and America,” by H.A. Goodman in The Jerusalem Post. http://bit.ly/1CPsL4g

--“Kim Jong Un’s Diplomatic Debut: A View from Russia,” Georgy Toloraya for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1zwvBNC

Events:

--“Congress's Role in Verification After an Iranian Nuclear Deal." Featuring Christopher Bidwell, Federation of American Scientists; John Lauder, former CIA Chief of Nonproliferation; and Harvey Rishikof, American Bar Association. January 22, noon-2:00 p.m. Sponsored by Third Way. Located at HVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center, Washington. RSVP by email to rsvp@thirdway.org.

--“Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal.” Hosted by Global Zero, from 1:00-3:00 p.m. on January 24. Located at the Ellipse (south of the White House), Washington, DC. RSVP online.

--Senate Banking Committee, hearing on "Perspectives on the Strategic Necessity of Iran Sanctions," with witnesses TBA. January 27 at 10:00 a.m. Located in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, room 538, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.

--"Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--"Avoiding Disaster in a New Era of Superpower Tension." Featuring Nikolas Gvosdev, U.S. Naval War College; Fiona Hill, Brookings Institution; Ali Wyne, RAND; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 29 from 6:30-8:00 p.m. Located at the FHI Conference Center, Eighth Floor, 1825 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington DC. Sponsored by PS21: Project for the Study of the 21st Century. RSVP. online

Dessert:

Oppenheimer, the musical - “When the Royal Shakespeare Company asked Tom Morton-Smith what he wanted to write he pitched an eight play sequence about physics in the 20th Century. The RSC got him down to writing a single piece about J. Robert Oppenheimer, often described as the father of the nuclear bomb. But it remains ambitious: the play has to teach its audience a lot about radical politics in 1930s America and about the race during World War Two to harness nuclear fusion.” Full story here. http://bbc.in/1xX9JEt