Key Nuclear Security Alliance with Russia Collapses

January 20, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Cutting cooperation - During previously undisclosed discussions last month, Russia informed the United States that “they were refusing any more US help protecting their largest stockpiles of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium from being stolen or sold on the black market. The declaration effectively ended one of the most successful areas of cooperation between the former Cold War adversaries.”

--“Specialists said the final meeting was a dismaying development in a joint effort that the United States has invested some $2 billion in and had been a symbol of the thaw between East and West and of global efforts to prevent the spread of doomsday weapons. An additional $100 million had been budgeted for the effort this year and many of the programs were envisioned to continue at least through 2018.”

--“‘I think it greatly increases the risk of catastrophic terrorism,’ said Sam Nunn, the former Democratic senator from Georgia and an architect of the ‘cooperative threat reduction’ programs of the 1990s...Another key architect of the programs, former Republican senator Richard Lugar of Indiana...said he wonders if the Russians have the expertise needed to keep track of the vast amount of nuclear bomb material. ‘The housekeeping by the Russians has not been comprehensive,’ Lugar said in an interview. ‘There had been work done [with the United States] hunting down nuclear materials. This is now terminated.’” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1KUGXyF

Cameron at the White House - “On Iran, we remain absolutely committed to ensuring that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon,” said British Prime Minister David Cameron at the White House on Friday. “The best way to achieve that now is to create the space for negotiations to succeed. We should not impose further sanctions now; that would be counterproductive and it could put at risk the valuable international unity that has been so crucial to our approach.” Full remarks here. http://1.usa.gov/1unyb7f

--See Also: “A Sanity Check from London on Iran,” by Paul Pillar in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1xQT1GI

Tweet - @WinWithoutWar: In tonight’s #SOTU, Pres. #Obama will ask #Congress to #LetDiplomacyWork w/ #Iran. Echo his call: http://ow.ly/HDihs #IranTalks

Rep. David Price on Iran - “If my colleagues are serious about restraining Iran’s nuclear ambitions, they have to resist the temptation to intervene in the administration’s negotiations,” writes Congressman David Price (D-NC) in The Guardian.

--“Imposing new or less flexible economic sanctions – which has been proposed by a number of my congressional colleagues, including Senators Kirk and Menendez – could do great damage to our prospects for a nuclear agreement with Iran. New punitive action could strengthen Iranian hard-liners and make their withdrawal from the negotiations more likely. Acting unilaterally could also undermine the stability of our international alliance, and thereby actually weaken the existing international sanctions regime.”

--“We cannot lose sight of the fact that a verifiable nuclear agreement with Iran would make our country, Israel, the Middle East and the world much safer.” http://bit.ly/1Gp097L

Tweet - @FAScientists: The dangers of our aging nuclear arsenal via https://twitter.com/TheWeek: http://ow.ly/HDg2Z

Timing - “There's no disagreement between the overwhelming majority in Congress and the president that if Iran does not agree to give up its nuclear weapons, we are not only [going to] re-impose the relief that they have received, but there'd be much tougher sanctions imposed,” Sen. Benjamin Cardin said on Fox News Sunday.

--“The only issue now is the timing. We hope that negotiations will go satisfactorily and Iran will not become a nuclear weapons state. But if they move in that direction, we're going to pass tougher sanctions.” http://fxn.ws/180EWBM

North Korea talks - “U.S. academics and former senior officials met with North Korea's chief nuclear negotiator in Singapore on Sunday to get a feel for each other's positions amid a years long standoff over the North's nuclear weapons buildup.” As Maye-e Wong reports for the Associated Press, “North Korea has indicated willingness to rejoin the long-stalled talks, but has balked at U.S. demands it first take concrete steps to show it remains committed to the denuclearization goal.” Full story here. http://abcn.ws/1yGKED6

Limited Progress - Iran and P5+1 made “limited progress” in the nuclear talks held on Sunday, in Geneva report Stephanie Nebehay and Marina Depetris for Reuters. “All sides agreed to step up efforts to reach a political understanding by the end of March with a view to clinching a full-blown deal by their self-imposed deadline of June 30.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1C2LYkT

Third Way on Iran - “Given Iran's inconsistent record with past compliance and understandable Congressional skepticism surrounding the future of deal terms, Congress should take a proactive, constructive role in monitoring and verification,” write Peter Billerbeck and Mieke Eoyang in a new report for Third Way.

--The authors offer a series of recommendations for how Congress could play a role with the Iran talks without endangering sensitive negotiations. Full report: “Congress's Role in Verification After an Iranian Nuclear Deal.” http://bit.ly/1ByXrcZ

Tweet - @DarylGKimball: New film in the making on suppressed footage fr 1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings https://twitter.com/Indiegogo #HINW14vienna http://igg.me/p/887958/twtr

Quick Hits:

--“Rebranding the nuclear weapons complex won't reform it,” by Robert Alvarez for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1GpbzZm

--“Iran Just Cancelled Its Space Program,” by Jassam Al Salami for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1DYgePy

--“Everything You Need to Know About the Iran Nuclear Talks,” by Chris Good for ABC News. http://abcn.ws/1sVQ9wH

--“New report by fired by LANL worker questions U.S. commitment to nonproliferation,” by Patrick Malone in the Santa Fe New Mexican. http://bit.ly/1Gpcjxw

Events:

--"Possible Game-Changing Technologies - Reinvent Nuclear Security." Online webinar on January 20, 2:00-3:30 p.m. EST. Part of the N-Square Roundtable Series. Register online.

-- Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Status of Talks and the Role of Congress,” with Antony Blinken and David Cohen as witnesses. January 21, at 09:30 a.m. Located in the Senate Dirksen Office Building, room 419, Washington DC. Additional information available here.

--“Congress's Role in Verification After an Iranian Nuclear Deal." Featuring Christopher Bidwell, Federation of American Scientists; John Lauder, former CIA Chief of Nonproliferation; and Harvey Rishikof, American Bar Association. January 22, noon-2:00 p.m. Sponsored by Third Way. Located at HVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center, Washington. RSVP by email to rsvp@thirdway.org.

--“Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal.” Hosted by Global Zero, from 1:00-3:00 p.m. on January 24. Located at the Ellipse (south of the White House), Washington, DC. RSVP online.

--Senate Banking Committee, hearing on "Perspectives on the Strategic Necessity of Iran Sanctions," with witnesses TBA. January 27 at 10:00 a.m. Located in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, room 538, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.

--"Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.