Hagel Pushes for New Bomber, Budget Pressures Push Back

January 14, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

$80 billion - “Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel made a final pitch for developing a new Air Force bomber, while questions linger about its affordability.” The outgoing Defense Secretary, who is on a farewell tour of military installations, told reporters the new bomber is “‘absolutely essential to keep our deterrent edge,’ and warned of dire consequences of waiting to develop it.”

--“But plans to build 80 to 100 stealthy, nuclear-capable ‘Long Range Strike Bombers’ will be costly, with an estimated price tag of $80 billion. The Air Force proposal comes at a time when the Defense Department is about to get hit with massive budget cuts…[And] the fleet will also have to compete with other nuclear modernization initiatives for defense dollars. In a July report to lawmakers, defense experts on the congressionally chartered National Defense Panel described the Pentagon's long term nuclear modernization plans as ‘unaffordable.’”

--“The authors of an Arms Control Association report published in October reached a similar conclusion. ‘Current plans to modernize the [nuclear] triad are simply not sustainable in an era of budget constraints,’ they wrote. They estimated that the Pentagon could save $32 billion by postponing the development of the new long range bomber for a decade.” Full story by Jon Harper of Stars and Stripes. http://1.usa.gov/1DYMob1

Outdated mission - “These days, terrorist are the first threat, and not a single one will be deterred by a nuclear warhead,” writes Walter Pincus in The Washington Post. Pentagon budgets are buckling and the U.S. is preparing to spend about $100 billion replacing its nuclear missile submarines. Given other threats around the world, “It seems wasteful to spend that kind of money re-creating a vast nuclear force that has never been used, on a scale that was likely never needed. Fewer SSBNs would be better.” Full column here. http://wapo.st/14wnUsW

By the numbers - There is a widespread misconception that Iran is “stringing negotiations along, enjoying the benefits of sanctions relief” with no intention of following through on the terms of a deal, writes Laicie Heeley for The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. “This does not, however, appear to be the case. According to recent reports, the amount of cash relief Iran has received has been less than originally thought,” with estimates ranging between $4.2 and $7 billion.

--“The reality is that Iran has received a relatively small amount relief when one considers that approximately $100 billion in foreign reserves remain inaccessible or restricted. These figures make no mention of Iran’s $120 billion losses in oil revenue or the depreciation of its currency, which as of July had depreciated by approximately 50 percent since January 2012 and seven percent since the JPA was announced last November.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1Ismxef

Speeding up talks - “US Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting his Iranian counterpart in Geneva in a bid to revive stalled talks over Iran's nuclear programme,” reports the BBC.

--“Mr Zarif said his meeting with the US secretary of state was important in order to speed up the process of establishing common ground between the two parties. Serious dialogue about longstanding differences, he said, would reveal that ‘what binds us together is far greater than what divides us.’” Full story here. http://bbc.in/1C0y9my

Tweet - Hannahkaviani: Exceptional walk ..@JohnKerry took a walk with @JZarif on the streets of geneva for abt 15mins http://bit.ly/1KJFkUd

Spoilers - “Pressure is growing from hard-liners in Iran and the U.S. as nuclear talks resume this week,” writes Garrett Nada for The Wall Street Journal. “In Washington, Congress is weighing one vote on new sanctions and a second one to require President Barack Obama to get lawmakers’ approval on final terms. And in Tehran, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was recently accused of making too many concessions [in nuclear negotiations] and spending too much time with U.S. officials.” Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1u46C2O

Tweet - @laicie: Banking committee hearing on #Iran sanctions next week, new sanctions on the way... http://t.co/mMNPb2RC65

Veto threat - “Any bill from Congress regarding new, nuclear-related sanctions on Iran during international talks over its nuclear program will be vetoed by US President Barack Obama,” State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said on Tuesday.

--“Even with a trigger, if there's a bill that's signed into law, and it is US law, in our mind it is a violation of the Joint Plan of Action— which, as we've said, could encourage Iran to violate it… A sanctions bill, trigger or not, that is passed and signed into law by the president... would be a violation of the JPOA.” Full story by Michael Wilner in the Jerusalem Post. http://bit.ly/1DEw6GT

Tweet - @Cirincione: Sen. @TomCottonAR reveals the true face of #IranDeal opponents: a war to force regime change. http://dailysign.al/1xpaLJf

North Korea Sanctions - “The United States aims to use new sanctions imposed on North Korea over the cyber attack on Sony Pictures to cut off the country's remaining links to the international financial system, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday.”

--“New sanctions announced by President Barack Obama on Jan 2. provided ‘a tremendous amount of flexibility’” said Daniel Glaser, assistant secretary for terrorist financing at the Treasury Department. “We could target any North Korean government agency; we could target any North Korean government official... we could apply sanctions with respect to any individual or entity who is providing them, in turn, material support." Full report via David Brunnstrom of Reuters. http://yhoo.it/1IIUp4L

--See also: Prepared testimony of Assistant Secretary Glaser’s from yesterday’s hearing: http://1.usa.gov/1ygxSuR.
--Prepared testimony of Brig. Gen. Gregory J. Touhill (USAF, Ret.): http://1.usa.gov/1IwwdEh
--Prepared testimony of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sung Y. Kim: http://1.usa.gov/1wcaA3E.

Quick Hits:

--“North Korea again urges US to suspend military exercises,” by Edith Lederer for the Associated Press. http://yhoo.it/1IK55Qv

--“Bill seeks to put Yucca Mountain back on the agenda,” by Steve Tetreault in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. http://bit.ly/1Af0fGk

Events:

--“The Myth Of Deterrence Stability Between Nuclear-Armed Rivals,” featuring Michael Krepon, Amb. Linton Brooks, and George Perkovich. Moderated by Joshua White. Wednesday, January 14, 12:30-2:00 p.m., at The Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20036. RSVP here.

--“The Endgame: Success or Failure in Iran Nuclear Talks?" Featuring Ambassador Bill Luers, Paul Pillar, and Robin Wright of The Iran Project. January 14 from 4:30p.m.-6:00p.m. Located at Georgetown University’s Mortara Center for International Studies, 3600 N St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century." Featuring Adm. Cecil Haney, Commander, U.S. Strategic Forces. January 15 at 9:30 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.

--“Congress's Role in Verification After an Iranian Nuclear Deal." Featuring Christopher Bidwell, Federation of American Scientists; John Lauder, former CIA Chief of Nonproliferation; and Harvey Rishikof, American Bar Association. January 22, noon-2:00 p.m. Sponsored by Third Way. Located at HVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center, Washington. RSVP by email to rsvp@thirdway.org.

--"Australia and the Bomb." Featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.