Amb. Power: New Iran Sanctions Would “Undermine” Negotiations

January 13, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Power move - “America’s top diplomat at the United Nations took the Obama administration’s case against enhancing Iran sanctions to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home turf Monday,” writes Niels Lesniewski for Roll Call. “Increasing sanctions would dramatically undermine our efforts,” said Samantha Power, adding that, “new sanctions will actually likely weaken the sanctions pressure on Iran, by undermining crucial international support for the existing multilateral sanctions on Iran.” http://bit.ly/1u1YrEd

--Full remarks by Amb. Samantha Power at the University of Louisville McConnell Center. http://1.usa.gov/14TWKNb

Tweet - @TomCollina: #IranTalks NOT #sanctions have frozen #Iran's nuclear program @AmbassadorPower

--See also: “Obama administration urges Congress to delay new Iran sanctions,” by Paul Richter and Rahim Mostaghim for the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1xks12h

About those preconditions - South Korean President Park Geun-hye said on Monday that she’s willing to hold talks with North Korea “without preconditions.” The North Koreans have been saying the same for months. “So why is no one talking?” As Alastair Gale explains in a new column for the The Wall Street Journal “it’s because there are always unpalatable preconditions in inter-Korean talks even if one side says there aren’t.” Full column here. http://on.wsj.com/1DTTKws

Report - “Achieving nuclear security in the 21st century and beyond requires a far more diverse set of national capabilities than during the Cold War,” writes Dr. James Doyle in a new report for Nuclear Watch New Mexico. The report, “Essential Capabilities for Nuclear Security: A National Program for Nonproliferation and Verification Technology Development,” provides policy recommendations for the nuclear industrial complex to improve its non-proliferation and verification research and operations.

--Read the executive summary here, and the full report here.

Thought experiment - If Iranian hardliners enacted legislation to ramp up Iran’s nuclear program if a deal is not reached, the U.S. would not respond positively. The reverse is true as well, argues Paul Pillar in the National Interest.

--“Iranians of various stripes would see [new sanctions] as a major show of American bad faith… it would make any further Iranian concessions seem less apt to bring desirable results, thus more risky politically for any Iranian leader to offer, and thus less likely to be offered. Consequently the negotiations would be more likely to fail.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/14vmK0K

Tweet - @HSalehiara: President Hassan Rohani at the Bushehr Nuclear power plant http://bit.ly/1xkBeaA

Financial weapons - “At a time of war-weariness and tight budgets, U.S. officials look on economic penalties as a low-cost weapon that can build pressure on foreign governments to stop doing things Washington doesn't like. The number of sanctions programs has doubled over the last decade, from 17 to 34, government figures show,” writes Paul Richter for the Los Angeles Times.

--As the use of sanctions has increased, it has also caused strain with U.S. allies and forced U.S. opponents to look for ways to diminish sanctions’ effectiveness. Full report here. http://lat.ms/1y4u9C5

Not so fast - Nuclear weapons experts have expressed doubts about a Der Spiegel report that the government of Bashar Al-Assad is operating a clandestine nuclear weapons program. “Western intelligence agencies have been aware of the site's existence for several years, with experts speculating it might be Scud missile storage facility, as Jane's Intelligence Review suggested in 2012, or related to communications,” reports Haaretz. http://bit.ly/1y7rp73

Tweet - @james_acton32: Early registration for @carnegienpp Nuclear Policy Conference ends on Thursday! #nukefest2015 http://ceip.org/14vxrk5

Quick Hits:

--“Russian, Iranian Officials Discuss Nuclear Talks,” via RFE/RL. http://bit.ly/1AbiBrG

--“Russia's New Military Doctrine All Bark, No Bite,” by Alexander Goltz in The Moscow Times. http://bit.ly/1BWs3no

--“Y-12, Pantex now in compliance with DOE order,” reports Frank Munger for Atomic City Underground. http://bit.ly/1Cack25

Events:

--“The Myth Of Deterrence Stability Between Nuclear-Armed Rivals,” featuring Michael Krepon, Amb. Linton Brooks, and George Perkovich. Moderated by Joshua White. Wednesday, January 14, 12:30-2:00 p.m., at The Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20036. RSVP here.

--“The Endgame: Success or Failure in Iran Nuclear Talks?" Featuring Ambassador Bill Luers, Paul Pillar, and Robin Wright of The Iran Project. January 14 from 4:30p.m.-6:00p.m. Located at Georgetown University’s Mortara Center for International Studies, 3600 N St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Briefing: The North Korean Threat: Nuclear, Missiles and Cyber.” Featuring Sung Kim, Special Representative for North Korea Policy and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Korea and Japan; Daniel Glaser Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence U.S. Department of the Treasury; and Brigadier General Gregory J. Touhill, USAF, Retired. Jan 13, 2015 10:00am to 1:00pm, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515. Full details here. http://1.usa.gov/1BWeMJw

--“Strategic Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century." Featuring Adm. Cecil Haney, Commander, U.S. Strategic Forces. January 15 at 9:30 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.

--"Australia and the Bomb." Featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. Jan. 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1tGp8bD

Dessert:

Not pikes and pantaloons - “In the 1957 military manual Total Resistance—which describes how to wage an insurgency—Swiss army Maj. Hans Von Dach sketches out” a doomsday scenario of nuclear war and marauding Soviet Armies. The book has a bizarre and fascinating history, including a stint on Germany’s banned books list after becoming a training guide for the Red Army Faction.

--It also includes this gem: “Ruins in bombed-out cities will also provide good hide-outs...Devastation wrought by atomic weapons will provide excellent places to hide.” Full story by Robert Beckhusen for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1DUbZ50