More Sanctions Could Disrupt Iran Negotiations

December 19, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Hold off on new sanctions - “New sanctions now would be poorly timed and reduce the probability” of a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran argues Ilan Goldenberg in The Hill. “If a deal cannot be struck by the middle of this year it might be time to re-evaluate and consider other options. But for the moment sanctions are unlikely to improve the chances of an agreement.”

--“Lower oil prices are already increasing the pressure on Iran. New sanctions are more likely to reduce the chances of an agreement, endanger the delicate but positive status quo, and give the Iranians an excuse to walk away while taking the high ground and blaming the United States.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/13kKzZ2

Complying - Iran is “taking further action to comply with the terms of an extended interim agreement” over its nuclear program, found an IAEA report released Friday. According to the report, Iran “is using some of its higher-grade enriched uranium in oxide form to produce fuel - a step that experts say would make it more difficult to use the material for any bombs.” Read the full story by Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1tzs3FN

Get the deal - “As the IAEA has repeatedly affirmed over the past year, Iran has complied with its commitments under the JPOA. Shredding this agreement and abandoning diplomacy will do nothing to produce closer oversight of Iran’s procurement activities. It is for that reason why the P5+1 are well advised to continue its efforts to work with Iran to fashion a permanent agreement in 2015,” writes Jofi Joseph in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1zcmPnB

Senate fault lines - Hawks in the Senate are “eager to undermine President Obama’s agenda, even at the cost of starting a war,” write Anna Galland and Becky Bond for The Hill. As it stands, Obama has the votes to veto any moves that could upend nuclear negotiations with Iran, “but a small group of deeply misguided Democrats...are poised to join Republicans in recklessly pushing the U.S. closer to another major Middle East war—and advancing the agenda of hard-liners in Iran.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1xtNHyI

Editors’ note - Early Warning will be offline for the holiday season. We’ll return to our normal coverage on Monday, January 5th.

--In case you need it while we’re away: http://www.noradsanta.org/

The sum of all fears - FEMA’s nuclear terrorism “implementation plan lacks key program management details,” according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office. FEMA’s lacks “specific timeframes, milestones, and estimated resources required to close any given capability gap.”

--GAO recommends that FEMA issue supplemental guidances, regularly report on the status of corrective actions, and “develop and issue detailed program management information to better enable management oversight of the DHS IND Strategy's recommended actions.” Read the full report here. http://1.usa.gov/1C8xBwo

--See also: “The federal government isn't fully prepared to handle a nuclear terrorist attack or large-scale natural catastrophe, lacking effective coordination, and in some cases is years away from ensuring adequate emergency shelter and medical treatment, congressional investigators have found.” Coverage by Hope Yen of the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1GyzYZ3

Russia’s Crimean hardware - “The news media and private web sites are full of rumors that Russia has deployed nuclear weapons to Crimea after it invaded the region earlier this year.” As Hans Kristensen writes for the Federation of American Scientists, “Many of these rumors are dubious and overly alarmist and ignore that a nuclear-capable weapon is not the same as a nuclear warhead.”

--“The uncertainty about what’s being moved to Crimea and what’s stored there illustrates the special problem with non-strategic nuclear forces: because they tend to be dual-capable and serve both nuclear and conventional roles, a conventional deployment can quickly be misinterpreted as a nuclear signal or escalation whether intended or real or not,” writes Kristensen. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1x4XQT2

Unfinished business - The U.S. has reduced the nuclear arsenal by approximately 85% since its Cold War high said Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller during an event on Wednesday. Yet with 4,804 weapons remaining as of 2013, she acknowledged that “we still have more work to do.”

--“As we consider future reductions, our focus must be on achievable and verifiable measures that all interested parties – nuclear states and non-nuclear states alike – can trust,” said Gottemoeller. “Our past experience – both successes and disappointments – will inform how and when we proceed, with each step building on the last.” Gottemoeller’s full remarks here. http://1.usa.gov/1x3sWdH

Tweet - IvoHDaalder: After #Cuba, what other shibboleth should @BarackObama overturn? How about that we [need] 1000s of nukes to be safe and secure?!

Oil as a weapon - What can the past tell us about Saudi Arabia’s choice to keep oil prices low? As Andrew Scott Cooper writes for Foreign Policy, Saudi Arabia’s hope, “if history is any indicator, is that escalated production will force [the Iranian] government to implement an austerity budget that will ultimately stoke underlying social unrest” in Iran. Full column here. http://atfp.co/1AlBYBS

Timing is everything - “In business, timing is everything; this is also true in diplomacy,” writes Ploughshares Fund’s executive director Philip Yun in an Op-Ed for Medium. As negotiators prepare to meet in Geneva this week after extending talks over Iran’s nuclear program last month, “it is the fickle nature of timing that exacerbates the challenge of the negotiating parties reaching an understanding before an informal March 2015 deadline.” Read the full analysis of the extension here. http://bit.ly/1zESPP4

WIPP report - “An Independent Assessment of the February 14, 2014 Underground Radiation Release Event at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)” by the Carlsbad Environmental Monitoring & Research Center. December, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1GyEQNJ

Iran’s missiles - Iran’s ballistic missile program has considerably slowed, in large part because sanctions have denied Iran access to missile production materials, according to Michael Elleman. The Iranians are “a little bit behind where I thought they would be” in extending the range of their missiles, said Elleman.

--”Iran’s missile program should not be an impediment to reaching a nuclear deal, Elleman said, but could be discussed in parallel talks or after conclusion of a comprehensive nuclear agreement,” report Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1r356vT

Quick Hits:

--“US Delays Release of Study on 1953 Iran Coup,” by Bradley Klapper for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1v808dP

--“What Iranians are saying about the U.S.-Cuba deal,” by Ishaan Tharoor for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1GwH401

Events:

--“Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran through Diplomacy,” webinar by Womens Action for New Directions, featuring Kelsey Davenport of ACA and Jamal Abdi of NIAC. Wednesday January 7 at 2:00 PM. Register here.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1xsl4SB

Dessert:

That’s why they call them Boomers - Ever seen the tubes that house Trident II D5 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) on the Ohio-class submarines? They are enormous. Also note the picture of the Ohio Class for a sense of “the incredible size of the beast that has to hold the tubes above.” Story by Tyler Rogoway for Sploid. http://bit.ly/1v88Vwh