Waking Up to Nuclear Nightmares

December 18, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

“Sleepwalking as Nukes Spread” - Nuclear proliferation is one of the gravest threats we face, yet it remains the most underreported story of 2014, writes Jane Harman in The New York Times. “With loose nukes in Pakistan, loose material worldwide, and nuclear fumbling here at home, we have to have our eye on every proliferation risk. No one wants a mushroom cloud on tomorrow’s front page.”

--“Nuclear security — in any context but the ongoing negotiations with Iran — has been thrown onto the pile of forgotten causes.” And that’s dangerous. “Terrorism via weapons of mass destruction, Pakistan’s irresponsibility, Russia’s temper tantrums, the future of our own nuclear arsenal — all of these concerns should be on the table and in the media spotlight now.” Read the full article here. http://nyti.ms/1z0RwXJ

Rouhani’s sanctions struggle - “The outright failure of [nuclear] talks might not undermine Mr. Rouhani’s political strength within Iran as much as his opponents would hope,” writes Farideh Farhi in the Financial Times.

--“The president will certainly face a rough path if the nuclear talks do eventually fail. But his difficulties will be less the result of domestic political challenges, and more due to the continued stranglehold of sanctions over the Iranian economy — and by extension, over the livelihoods of the Iranian people.” Full column in the Financial Times. http://on.ft.com/1z0PG9p

Rial falling - “Iran’s rial is weakening after months of stability over declining oil prices and uncertainty whether the country will clinch a nuclear deal lifting international sanctions.” Ladane Nasseri reports for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1zzQIfi

Tweet - @AlMonitor: Experts say Iran’s missile program should not be an impediment to a comprehensive nuclear deal - @barbaraslavin1 almon.co/2bjt

Worse than Iraq - Iran's nuclear program faced rare, blunt criticism at a roundtable at Tehran University yesterday, with speakers decrying sanctions and comparing the program’s impact to the Iran-Iraq War. “The imposed war did not damage us as much as the nuclear program has,” said one professor. Full story by Golnaz Esfandiari for RFE/RL. http://bit.ly/1wPeXVA

Cuba and Iran - “Almost everything the president said about the failure of America's Cuba policy could be said of our policy on Iran,” write Trita Parsi and Ryan Costello in Huffington Post. “Americans should be encouraged that Obama is bold enough to chart a new course.”

--“Clearly, the nuclear negotiations [with Iran] are complicated and it is not as simple as making a decision to restore ties. The steps announced today toward Cuba, however, also involved careful negotiations toward a deal that served each side's mutual interests...Just as Obama has shown that he can break the deadlock on Cuba, he can also bend Congress on Iran.” Full column here. http://huff.to/1DQl0j8

Tweet - @Reuters: Putin says deal on Iran's nuclear program 'very close' http://reut.rs/1zySZsd

The path to zero - “It is a welcome fact that there remains strong support among governments and publics for nuclear disarmament,” said Robert Wood, U.S. Special Representative to the Conference on Disarmament yesterday. “The task at hand is to help to channel that support into constructive, effective measures that will strengthen international security while further reducing the number of nuclear weapons.”

--“As President Obama has said, the path to zero will require patience and persistence. It requires a broad strategy aimed at strengthening the nonproliferation regime, preventing nuclear terrorism, and pursuing concrete steps that build a foundation for future progress and lead in the direction of nuclear disarmament.” Full remarks here. http://1.usa.gov/1wHVlUO

Iran and grand strategy - “The Obama administration’s quest for a grand strategy for the Middle East is in deep trouble, and the failure to reach a nuclear deal with Iran has only made the problem worse,” writes Vali Nasr in The New York Times.

--“President Obama has taken steps that could evolve into a new grand strategy. He is trying to ally with Arabs to degrade the Islamic State. Then he wants a nuclear deal that would let Iran work more openly and closely against Sunni extremism. The clear hope is for a lasting alliance of moderate Sunni regimes with the region’s Shiite power brokers, to contain the Sunni extremism that he sees as a threat to both.” Full column here. http://nyti.ms/16vI7Re

Constructive talks - “Iran's deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Wednesday he had ‘very useful and helpful’ nuclear negotiations with major powers in Geneva,” reports Reuters. “Araqchi, speaking to reporters at the end of all-day closed-door talks, said there was an agreement to continue nuclear talks ‘next month’ at a venue to be decided.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1r2O9lf

Quick Hits:

--“Vienna Conference vigorously advances efforts to ban nuclear weapons,” by Greg Mello of the Los Alamos Study Group. http://bit.ly/1x2p0Kh

--“What’s So Scary About A Nuclear Armed Drone?” by Kelsey Atherton in Popular Science. http://bit.ly/1sJmI17

--“Then vs Now: Progress on Nuclear Weapons since the End of the Cold War,” by David Wright for the Union of Concerned Scientists. http://bit.ly/1J8WZ72

--“The Little Green Men and a New Cruise Missile,” Arms Control Wonk podcast featuring Aaron Stein and Jeffrey Lewis. http://bit.ly/1x2qt3e

--“Could Russia's economic meltdown lead to loose nukes?” By Martin Matishak in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1x2qW5D

Events:

--Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories, public meeting. January 6, 10:00 a.m.-3:30 p.m., Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Room 1301, Alexandria, VA. RSVP required. http://1.usa.gov/1wm27j9

--“Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran through Diplomacy,” webinar by Womens Action for New Directions, featuring Kelsey Davenport of ACA and Jamal Abdi of NIAC. Wednesday January 7 at 2:00 PM. Register here.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1xsl4SB