Iranian Business Anticipates a Deal Despite Economic Slowdown

December 15, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Optimism in Tehran - “It is almost an article of faith in business circles that the latest extension is only the postponement of an inevitable thaw between Iran and the rest of the world,” Thomas Erdbrink reports from Tehran for The New York Times. As the owner of one trucking company said, “The world needs this deal; we need this deal. It will happen.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1uwVu91

Good sense can prevail - “Iran’s isolation serves nobody,” argues Roger Cohen in The New York Times. “There are real strategic differences between the Islamic Republic and the West that may still frustrate attempts to move beyond the nuclear issue and begin a process of fruitful reintegration,” but they are not insurmountable. “Individuals can still defeat entrenched interests and lobbies, good sense prevail over the shallow cacophony.” http://nyti.ms/16oa6Cf

Hard numbers - An economic slowdown in Iran may show a different side to professed hopes for a deal. “The five-year rally in Iranian stocks is coming to an end as optimism fades that President Hassan Rouhani can resolve an international standoff over the Islamic republic’s nuclear program,” writes Zahra Hankir for Bloomberg. “The Tehran Stock Exchange Index has lost 20 percent in 2014, set for the first yearly decline since 2008,” as the price of oil, Iran’s primary export continues to drop. Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1wzNk2J

Talks resume - “The US and Iran will hold a two-day bilateral meeting in Geneva next week, Dec. 15-16, ahead of a meeting of political directors from Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5+1), as the parties redouble efforts to reach a final nuclear deal after talks were extended last month. The resumed US-Iran bilateral meetings are a departure from the three-way, US/Iran/European Union meetings that have been conducted for the past year.” Full story via Laura Rozen in Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1wnspA0

Perseverance - Speaking to a gathering of officials at a Central Bank seminar in Tehran on Monday, President Hassan Rouhani said that he would “try to clinch a nuclear deal with world powers despite opposition from some quarters in Iran,” reports Reuters. “Some people may not like to see the sanctions lifted. Their numbers are few, and they want to muddy the water,” said Rouhani. Full story here. http://reut.rs/1Ada5tR

GAO on New Start - DoD’s annual report to Congress on New START compliance only “partially addresses the required elements,” according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office. “It did not include additional detail, including certain information on costs and verification and transparency measures, which would more fully inform congressional decision-makers on the department’s plan for implementing New START.” Full report here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1ITrMok

Russia replies - “Moscow will not bend to US diktat” on INF violations, said the Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday. TASS reports: http://bit.ly/1zfsece

Renewed momentum - Although the recent Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna “was unable to come up with a concrete timetable to get rid of nuclear arms,” it successfully renewed attention towards the devastating consequences nuclear weapons can have on humanity. Read the full editorial in The Japan Times. http://bit.ly/1xl2E6n

Tweet - @FAScientists: FAS's Kristensen presentation slides from Conference on Humanitarian Impact of #Nuke Weapons now online:http://bit.ly/1qRZ8xX

GAO on missile defense - “DoD’s Missile Defense Agency has taken steps in-line with Government Accountability Office best practices to improve its cost estimating practices” according to a new report. MDA now needs to prove it can observe these reforms over the long haul and “provide more confidence in the agency's ability to identify areas where the cost estimate follows its guide and where correction is needed.” Full GAO report here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/13qroxF

US-China cooperation - “For China, which is seeking a denuclearized North East Asian Peninsula, North Korea’s recalcitrance in continuing with its nuclear program could make the country more of a liability than an asset for Beijing,” writes Debalina Ghoshal for the Eurasia Review. “China must cooperate with the United States in order to reach a viable solution regarding North Korea’s nuclear program.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1w9TZ5e

South Asian triads - India and Pakistan’s development of a nuclear triad raises the risk of a nuclear exchange in South Asia, argues Saira Bano in The Diplomat. “Nuclear doctrinal opacity, political complexities, triangular nuclear relations (China-India-Pakistan), and learning curves (being new to sea-based technologies) increases the chances for misperception, miscalculation and the threat of escalation.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1w9WNPJ

See Also: “India’s first indigenous nuclear submarine gears up for maiden sea trials,” by Rajat Pandit in The Times of India. http://bit.ly/1BGqBnm

Quick Hits:

--“France, US uneasy bedfellows in quest for Iran nuclear deal,” reports AFP. http://dailym.ai/1zfGi5F

--“ORNL workers exposed to radiation during work on secret project,” by Frank Munger in the Knoxville News-Sentinal. http://bit.ly/1xdVbpH

--“U.S. opts not to force N.Y. Times reporter to reveal source,” reports Aruna Viswanatha for Reuters. http://yhoo.it/1BK5Xmo

--“CROmnibus Analysis Blog,” by Taxpayers for Common Sense. http://bit.ly/1xl8QLC

--“Kirtland undergoing nuclear reorganization,” by Charles Brunt in the Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/1uNF4Jy

--“Exclusive: Iran hackers may target U.S. energy, defense firms, FBI warns,” by Jim Finkle for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1spF2Xc

Events:

--Senate confirmation votes on Frank Rose to be Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance, and another nominee. His confirmation vote will be 10:00 AM, December 16. Broadcast and webcast on C-SPAN2.

--"Congressional Options and Their Likely Consequences for a Nuclear Deal with Iran." Featuring Larry Hanauer from 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM on December 16. Located in B‑369 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington D.C., sponsored by RAND. RSVP online.

--“U.S. Nuclear Arms Control Policy: A Talk with Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller,” featuring Rose Gottemoeller and Amb. Steven Pifer. From 10:00 AM - 11:30 AM, December 17 at the Brookings Institution. Located 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. in the Falk Auditorium. RSVP online.

--“Breaking the Stalemate in U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Cooperation Negotiations,” featuring Scott Snyder. From Noon-1:30 PM on December 17 at the Global America Business Institute. Located at 1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 435, Washington. RSVP to Christina Sookyung Jung by email at csjung@thegabi.com.