Iran Talks: Obstacles and Pathways to Success

December 10, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Where talks stand - "While ultimate success is far from guaranteed, negotiations, in a little more than twelve months, have achieved more than years of escalation,” writes the International Crisis Group in a new policy briefing. “A landmark agreement can still be found if both sides adopt more flexible postures.”

--“It would be as grave a mistake to underestimate how far the negotiators have come as it would be to overestimate their chances of success. Obstacles notwithstanding, there is a credible path to an agreement. It would require for Iran to postpone its plans for industrial-scale enrichment while the P5+1 countenances controlled growth of that program and clearly defines target dates for a phased lifting of sanctions.” Read the full briefing here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1ByB9Yq

Actions from Vienna - “The conferences on the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons have been a useful mechanism to press for progress on disarmament and highlight the enormous risks of the nuclear weapons status quo,” write Arms Control NGO leaders Daryl Kimball, Hans Kristensen, Catherine Thomasson, Lisbeth Gronlund and Arjun Makhijani, in an open letter to the organizers of the Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.

--The authors identify four critical steps for worlds leaders to reduce the threat posed by nuclear weapons. First, examine dangerous doctrines. Second, accelerate U.S.-Russian nuclear cuts and freeze other nuclear-armed nation stockpiles. Third, convene nuclear disarmament summits. Finally, follow through on the CTBT. Read the full letter here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1s8PhEX

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: RT@jwawrzyniuk: #HINW14vienna NGOs call for convening Nuclear Disarm Summit ideally near Aug 6 & 9, 2015 anniv. http://bit.ly/1x22wID

Weapons states at Vienna - “The United States said on Tuesday it is relying less on nuclear weapons as part of its defense planning, but Britain argued against banning such arms now.” As Fredrik Dahl reports for Reuters, both countries are participating for the first time in an international conference on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons, and have made statements in support of pursuing a plan towards a world free of nuclear weapons.

--“The three other officially recognized nuclear weapon states -- Russia, France and China -- stayed away from the meeting. Many of the 157 states taking part are critical of what they see as slow progress on nuclear disarmament.” Read the full story here. http://yhoo.it/1wxSWhh

Nukes in the Cromnibus - The Senate released its report of the FY15 omnibus appropriations bill, expected to clear Congress in the coming days. On nuclear policy, the committee reports, “The bill provides $1.641 billion, which is $86 million more than the budget request, for nonproliferation activities that reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism.”

--“The bill provides $8.232 billion, which is $387 million more than the fiscal year 2014 level, for nuclear weapons activities.” Read the committee’s report here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1z4pFs7

Don’t fear the sneaker - "Washington and its partners should not let the fear of such a low-probability event [as sneakout] divert their attention from what remains an attainable and worthy goal: a comprehensive agreement that brings about a substantial cut in Iran’s actual uranium enrichment capabilities while showing due respect for Iran’s legitimate desires for economic development and national scientific achievement." Full column by Jacques Hymans in Foreign Affairs. (paywall) http://fam.ag/1scJFJU

Tweet - @sarahmishkin: Worrying that US Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board has such low job satisfaction ratings among govt agencies :/ http://wapo.st/1wgv9ix

Feeling the squeeze - “Oil prices have plunged by more than 40 percent since June to around $65 a barrel, placing severe strain on Iran's economy, which is already hobbled by international sanctions imposed over its nuclear program.” Full story by Ali Akbar Dareini for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1qv7wTP

Busted - New details have emerged about the arrest of seven men in Moldova on suspicion of smuggling radioactive material. The material was allegedly transported to from Russia to Moldova by train, where smugglers with specialized knowledge about radioactive substances were waiting. Unfortunately for them, they had been under FBI and Moldovan surveillance since January of 2014. Full story, with video of a Moldovan police raid, comes via Radio Free Europe. http://bit.ly/1vAulkE

Chilly, not cold - Russia has been playing into cold war tendencies, increasing its bomber and sub patrols while trying to frighten its Eastern European neighbors. “But this is not the Cold War redux,” write Lawrence J. Korb and Katherine Blakeley.

--The authors tamp down hype about threats from Russia. They say the smarter response includes keeping economic sanctions on Russia, revitalizing Nato, supporting Ukraine and “keeping the door open to working with Russia where possible” and especially on nuclear weapons. Read the full column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1wxTOCo

New Nuclear Cleanup Caucus Chair - Congressman Chuck Fleischmann (R-TN) will take over as head of the Nuclear Cleanup Caucus in the 114th Congress. “The caucus is comprised of a group of lawmakers who have Department of Energy cleanup sites in their districts.” Official press release here. http://1.usa.gov/1376tiS

Nuclear advisor confirmed - “The US Senate on 9 December approved Robert Scher to be the Pentagon's assistant secretary overseeing nuclear issues,” reports Daniel Wasserbly for IHS Jane's Defence Weekly. During his Senate confirmation hearing Scher said that he “envisions working to increase the funding for nuclear modernisation by about 10% from the approximately $15-16 billion spent annually.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1yPKQ2j

Balance of power - Russia is developing an equivalent to the U.S. missile defense systems THAAD and GMD, reports the Russian news agency TASS. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1ulvayr

Quick Hits:

--“Russia's Lavrov warns over U.S. anti-missile system: RIA,” full report by Reuters. http://reut.rs/1scBiOy

--“Stakes remain high in Iran nuclear talks,” by Stephen Kinzer for Aljazeera America. http://alj.am/1scDKED

Events:

--“The U.S., Israel and the regional dimensions of an Iran nuclear deal.” A panel discussion hosted by New America. Featuring Shlomo Brom, Suzanne DiMaggio and Ilan Goldenberg. Wednesday, December 10, 3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.. Located at New America’s offices at 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC, 20036. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/15OlS8U

--"Did the Nuclear Negotiations Include Iran's Ballistic Missiles?" Featuring Michael Elleman. Friday December 12 from 2:00p.m.-3:00 p.m. Located at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K St, NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/12AAjft

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on December 15 at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Located at 4850 Mark Center Drive, Room 1301, Alexandria, VA. RSVP by 5:00 p.m. on Dec. 10 to Karen Gibson by email at crenel@hq.doe.gov.

--“Breaking the Stalemate in U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Cooperation Negotiations,” featuring Scott Snyder. From noon-1:30 p.m. on December 17 at the Global America Business Institute. Located at 1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 435, Washington. RSVP to Christina Sookyung Jung by email at csjung@thegabi.com.