For the Next SecDEF: Fixing a Mismanaged and Unaffordable Nuclear Arsenal

December 3, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Nuclear disarray - “There’s nothing like pouring good billions after bad billions to fix a disastrously nonsensical and dangerous system,” says Rachel Maddow in a new segment on the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Discussing Secretary Hagel’s proposed nuclear overhaul and subsequent resignation on her show last night, Maddow pointed out that “One of the more immediate questions for whoever is going to replace Chuck Hagel is going to be, ‘Do you support these major changes that your predecessor just announced?’” No big deal, “Thats just the multi-trillion dollar, terrifying nuclear question.” Full video here. http://on.msnbc.com/11TYft9

The next SecDef - With President Barack Obama expected to nominate Ashton Carter as his next Secretary of Defense, “many Republicans see a potential ally inside the Pentagon.” As Eli Lake and Josh Rogin report for Bloomberg View, Carter has been a staunch supporter of modernizing the nuclear arsenal, taken a hard line on Iran, and in 2006 advocated for pre-emptive strikes against North Korea.

--Carter “is in a tough spot,” according to Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund. “He inherits plans for spending $1 trillion on new nuclear weapons over the next 30 years but not the money to pay for them. He doesn't want to cut the contracts, but he can't afford them either.” Read the full story here. http://bv.ms/1yf8ktz

Court-martialed - “The Air Force is court-martialing a nuclear missile launch officer on drug and obstruction-of-justice charges stemming from a criminal investigation that led to the disclosure last winter of a separate exam-cheating scandal that implicated nearly 100 nuclear officers.” Robert Burns has the full story for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1ykzGT9

Not concerned - “I am not concerned about losing political push for the ambitious Hagel agenda, which includes spending billions of dollars on nuclear forces over the coming five years in an era of tight defense budgets,” Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James told Robert Burns of the Associated Press. Full story here. http://1.usa.gov/1HZQkvi

WH opposes sanctions - “Placing additional sanctions on Iran would ‘blow up’ negotiations over the country’s nuclear program,” National Security Adviser Susan Rice said on Tuesday. “The P5+1 would fracture, the international community would blame the United States rather than Iran for the collapse of the negotiations, and the Iranians would conclude that there’s little point in pursuing this process at the negotiating table,” Rice said. Full story by David McCabe in The Hill here. http://bit.ly/1wnLZhV

Paul opposes sanctions - Speaking at the same event, Sen. Rand Paul told the audience, “he doesn’t favor increasing sanctions on Iran as the U.S. continues diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the Iranian nuclear weapons program, saying, ‘I think it would be a mistake to push them away from the table.’” Full story by Beth Reinhard of The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1tE9FJ1

Putting diplomacy at risk - On Tuesday, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) announced a plan to pass new sanctions on Iran. The White house has repeatedly warned that, “such a bill would derail the fragile negotiations taking place on the international stage in Vienna.” John Hudson has the full story for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1AdMfPd

Tweet - @giacomonyt: If GOP scuttles a deal, then what? Corker vows Senate will play ‘robust role’ on Iran sanctions next year. http://t.co/ofwZrllt3d

Not in my backyard - The Air Force has been quietly laying the groundwork for a truck mobile replacement to the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. Previous iterations of this plan have been based largely in Utah, which as Tom Collina and Jacob Marx argue in The Salt Lake Tribune, has always been --and continues to be-- a bad deal for Utahans. Read the column here. http://bit.ly/12n5n1c

Defense bill - The FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act is heading to the Senate. In addition to sustaining a topline defense budget of $503.1 billion, the bill authorizes the Department of Energy to spend $17.9 billion on nuclear weapons in the coming fiscal year. Early reports on the NDAA from Colin Clark at Breaking Defense. http://bit.ly/11UbPwK

The bill - Full text of the “Carl Levin and Howard P. ‘Buck’ McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015.” (huge pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1ykQGIF

Oil prices and a deal - “A wild card in the seven months of extended negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program is the continuing plunge in global oil prices and its impact on Tehran’s finances.” As Jay Solomon reports for The Wall Street Journal, “The [price] drop isn’t expected to be reversed in the near future and could have a crippling impact on an Iranian government budget that is traditionally 60% derived from oil exports.” Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1wrwp4V

Video - "Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: The Road Ahead." Experts Bob Einhorn, Gary Samore, David Albright and Ed Levine discussed where negotiations stand and next steps. Hosted at Brookings. Event video here. http://brook.gs/1yQhb6y

Tweet - @james_acton32: Applications for the 2015 Stanton fellowship @CarnegieEndow @carnegienpp are now open! http://t.co/2m9dqtVyrW

Quick Hits:

--“Rattled by Chinese submarines, India joins other nations in rebuilding fleet,” report Sanjeev Miglani and Tommy Wilkes for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1CFsCEu

--“U.N. watchdog seeks $5.7 million to monitor extended Iran nuclear deal,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1rTemnj

--“Senate Republicans press Obama on Iran sanctions,” reports Martin Matishak for The Hill. http://bit.ly/12nd7QI

--“IFE14: Detecting the Smoking Gun - How Voluntary Contributions Make a Difference,” from the CTBTO Preparatory Commission’s Website. http://bit.ly/11Uj6fO

--“Nuclear deal with Iran a game-changer,” by James Carville in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1rSSgBn

--“Pakistan could have 200 nuclear weapons by 2020,” an interview with Gregory Koblentz by Gabriel Domínguez of Deutsche Welle. http://bit.ly/15NYdFu

Events:

--“Dismantling Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program: Next Steps To Achieve A Comprehensive Deal.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing featuring David Albright, Dr. Gary Samore, and Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute. Wednesday, Dec. 3 at 2:00 p.m. in Dirksen 419. Details here. http://1.usa.gov/1HVqmsN

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with eight speakers. From 8:30 a.m.-noon, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School, Located At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uX6DDM

--"Countering Proliferation Finance,” featuring Leonard Spector and Moyara Ruehsen, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Dec. 2, 11:00 p.m. EST (4:00 UTC). Online webinar. Sponsored by CNS. Register here by 4:00 UTC, Dec. 2. http://bit.ly/15nJ2mn

--“The Budapest Memorandum at 20: The United States, Ukraine and Security Assurances.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Ambassador Stephen Pifer and Oleksandr Zaytsev. Located at the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC, 20036, Saul/Zilkha Rooms. Tuesday, December 9 from 2:00 - 3:30 pm. RSVP online. http://ow.ly/FfAgI

--“The U.S., Israel and the regional dimensions of an Iran nuclear deal.” A panel discussion hosted by New America. Featuring Shlomo Brom, Suzanne DiMaggio and Ilan Goldenberg. Wednesday, December 10, 3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.. Located at New America’s offices at 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC, 20036. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/15OlS8U

Dessert:

North Korea attacks Hollywood? - James Franco and Seth Rogen star in an upcoming film where two U.S. reporters are tasked by the CIA with assassinating North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. The movie, premiering Christmas Day, is likely to be a hit.

--Apparently Kim Jong-Un and the North Korean government do not share the humor of American moviegoers. Sony Pictures, which made the film, suffered a massive cyberattack last week at Pyongyang’s behest. “Five movies were stolen and documents containing salaries, details about fired staffers, layoff strategies, budgets, and the Social Security numbers of 3,803 employees have also been leaked online.” Staffers were even forced to communicate by pen and paper. David Francis has the full story for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1yMcgot