Terms of the Iran Extension: New limits, Expanded Inspections

December 2, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Extension terms - “Iran will limit research and development on its advanced centrifuges, grant the IAEA expanded access to its centrifuge facilities and convert half its stocks of 20% oxide into fuel for a research reactor,” under the terms of the latest Iran talks extension.

--Al-Monitor reports that in return the P5+1, “have agreed to continue providing Iran $700 million in its oil sale proceeds per month, amounting to almost $5 billion total through June 30, as well as to continue suspending certain sanctions including on petrochemical exports, trade in precious metals and auto parts.” Laura Rozen has the full report here. http://bit.ly/12jZRw9

Expert views - “What Next for Iran and the P5+1?” 32 experts answer the question for Viewpoint from the Middle East Center at the Wilson Center. Authors include Esfandiari, Brumberg, Kupchan, Laipson, Limbert, Luers, Maloney, Nader, Parsi, Slacin, Singh, Walsh and many more. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1ybAzJH

Irresponsible budgeting - When it comes to replacing the Ohio Class Submarine, “the Navy is displaying a dangerous lack of common sense, as evidenced by its inability to appreciate the real economic challenge that faces the nation and its Navy.” As Jerry Hendrix asks in Defense One, how is it possible that the Navy did not budget for nuclear deterrence?

--“The challenge of finding the money to pay for these new boats is largely self-imposed. For 10 years the Navy planned to buy a fleet of sports cars like Arleigh Burke class destroyers, even where mission requirements called for pickups, all the while ignoring that there would be a mortgage payment coming due at the same time. If strategic deterrence is our primary mission, then funding the next submarine for that mission is the first priority. We have to pay the mortgage. It’s common sense.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1rTWanL

Pro-sanctions push - “AIPAC is urging a dramatic escalation in sanctions on Iran in response to a recent seven-month extension of nuclear talks” reports Bradley Klapper of the Associated Press. The powerful pro-Israel lobby wants the U.S. to reinstate all economic penalties which were suspended during negotiations in order to gain more leverage over Iran. “The Obama administration believes new Iran sanctions would harm hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.” Read the full story here. http://abcn.ws/1vcv1g1

Tweet - @MarkDStrauss: New govt report says federal agents who transport nuclear weapons have anger issues. http://bit.ly/1vcsNx0

Japan’s stockpile problem - Japan doesn't want the bomb, but indecision over how to manage its growing stockpile of separated plutonium is cause for concern. As Jeffrey Lewis explains in Foreign Policy, Japan’s lack of a functional plan for the plutonium, combined with “Tokyo's repeated comments about the importance of reprocessing for energy security -- makes it much harder to convince countries with worse nonproliferation records (from Iran to South Korea) to” abide by international norms against reprocessing.

--Ongoing delays at the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant have created the opportunity for the Abe government “to think about setting a better example...Even if Japan doesn't shut down Rokkasho, it can have an open debate about the security downsides of its energy policies and think about what sort of model it wants to set for the world.” Read the full column here. http://atfp.co/1tHY2jl

PMD probe - “Iran said it has provided evidence to the United Nations atomic agency showing that documents on suspected nuclear bomb research by the country were forged and riddled with errors...The Iranian statement was in contrast to the IAEA's assessment in a report last month which said Iran had so far failed to address suspicions it may have worked on designing an atomic bomb.” Fredrik Dahl at Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/1pNjUyg

Radiation sickness - “More than 8,000 current or former workers of the Department of Energy nuclear site in Aiken, S.C., have received at least $800 million in federal compensation” for medical expenses tied to job-related illnesses, writes Samantha Ehlinger for McClatchy. “The payments are part of a little-noticed federal program that addresses the staggering nationwide toll of a nuclear weapons industry born out of the Cold War. Since its inception, “more than 104,000 sick workers have received almost $11 billion in compensation and medical expenses.” Read the full story here. http://1.usa.gov/1B9ocnO

Quick Hits:

--“Pakistan’s Health and Demography,” by Michael Kreppon for Arms Control Wonk http://bit.ly/1tIfqV2

--“UPF moving forward, but questions abound,” by Frank Munger for Atomic City Underground. http://bit.ly/1zLZ2r0

--“The Parchin Puzzle,” by Robert Kelley for LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1tzJxih

Events:

--"The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." Hosted by the Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. December 3 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Washington, DC.

--“Dismantling Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program: Next Steps To Achieve A Comprehensive Deal.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing featuring David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, Dr. Gary Samore of the Harvard Kennedy School, and Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute. Wednesday, Dec. 3 at 2:00 p.m. in Dirksen 419. Details here. http://1.usa.gov/1HVqmsN

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with eight speakers. From 8:30 a.m.-noon, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School, Located At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uX6DDM

--"Countering Proliferation Finance,” featuring Leonard Spector and Moyara Ruehsen, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Dec. 2, 11:00 p.m. EST (4:00 UTC). Online webinar. Sponsored by CNS. Register here by 4:00 UTC, Dec. 2. http://bit.ly/15nJ2mn

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with nine speakers. 8:30 a.m.-noon, December 5th at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://1.usa.gov/15nK3uG

--"From Ypres to Damascus: 100 Years of Chemical Warfare and Disarmament,” hosted by the Arms Control Association. 9:00 a.m.-4:30 p.m., December 12 at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1vbhiqq

Dessert:

Underwater nukes - “Can you kill a sub with a nuke?” That was the question 1955’s Operation Wigwam was designed to answer. As Steve Weintz writes for War is Boring, “Sailors and scientists needed to know the range and lethality of underwater nuclear explosions. Would they harm the crews, ships and planes delivering the weapons? Would the ocean become too contaminated near the blast for forces to remain and fight?”

--“Wigwam’s nuclear device was a Mk-90 ‘Betty’ atomic depth charge. The Betty yielded 30 kilotons, twice the force of the Hiroshima bomb…Detonation produced a huge “hot” bubble more than 375 feet across [and] created a towering 800-foot high plume of radioactive seawater….Half an hour after the shot, radioactive contamination spread across five square miles of ocean. Radiation at the surface measured 250 REMs, enough to maim or kill.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1tI8jfg