Hawks Double Down as Negotiators Race Against Time

November 26, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Now what? - “Trying to manage the aftermath of Vienna will be a delicate dance,” write Ilan Goldenberg and Elizabeth Rosenberg in The National Interest. “It will be impossible for the Obama administration to placate hawks in Congress without raising concerns in Beijing about potential U.S. sanctions policy. Taking steps to reassure Israel will be seen by hardliners in Tehran as confirming the worst intentions of the United States. The question will be whether...negotiators and politicians can find the right balance, particularly if negotiations persist for even longer than currently envisioned.”

--“If they can, then diplomacy can continue and the possibility of halting Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons without greater confrontation remains open. But if talks fail, we might soon again find ourselves in a dangerous dynamic where Iran doubles down on its nuclear program, the United States imposes tougher sanctions, and the two sides once again lock into a collision course unlikely to end well.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1y1fNkS

An avoidable future - In a new column for Defense One Kelsey Davenport asks the reader to, “fast forward to 2015.” Iran and the P5+1 negotiators have failed to reach a deal, more sanctions are imposed by the U.S. Congress, and Iran responds by restarting its nuclear program in full. Israel and the U.S. pursue military strikes against Iranian targets. Iran withdraws from the NPT, convinced that building a nuclear weapon is the only way to defend itself. Once again, the U.S. becomes involved in a Middle East war, only this time Nukes are front and center. “All of this is avoidable… It is a future we cannot afford.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1xFKcQK

Tweet - @blakenarendra: For those who doubt impact of interim agreement and its utility in months to come #IranTalks http://bit.ly/1ATMim8

Domestic politics - “While Rouhani and his foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have to watch their backs with Khamenei and Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards, Kerry was looking over his shoulder at Capitol Hill, where skepticism over Obama's diplomatic opening to Iran runs deep,” write Louis Charbonneau and Jonathan Allen of Reuters on the domestic challenges in Tehran and Washington to a nuclear deal. http://reut.rs/1tjcpLu

Race against the clock - “Negotiators are racing to complete an elusive deal on the Iranian nuclear programme before conservatives in the US and Iran can close down the talks,” reports Julian Borger for The Guardian. The talks were extended for seven months this week, but a more immediate deadline is January 6 when the newly elected congress convenes for the first time. At that point Democrats will be unable to prevent a vote on new Iran sanctions from going to a vote. “Largely for this reason, Zarif has said he would like to conclude a framework deal before the end of the year.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ttfoAm

Hanging in there - “The Iran talks have just gone into overtime, and that is not a bad thing,” writes Joe Cirincione for the New York Daily News. “For the first time in a decade, Iran is formally blocked from making any progress on its nuclear program. In fact, the negotiations have rolled it back, making Iran get rid of some of the most threatening aspects of its work.”

--“There are no good alternatives to the current negotiations, no matter how frustrating they may seem. If we stop talking, we could soon be bombing.” As John Kerry put it while announcing the extension earlier this week, “We would be fools to walk away.” America is at its strongest, “when we use all the tools of our national power, including diplomacy and defense. Our negotiators have asked for four more months. We have nothing to lose by giving them this short overtime — and a great deal to gain.” Read the full story here. http://nydn.us/15xamyu

Expert statement - The Iran Task Force of the Atlantic Council “applauds” the efforts of the U.S., world powers and Iran to reach an agreement shutting off Iran’s possible paths to a bomb. “The Task Force recommends that everyone withhold judgment while negotiations proceed and refrain from actions that could jeopardize a final deal. As Secretary of State John Kerry said in announcing the extension, ‘the world is safer’ with the interim agreement still in place.”

--”A solid, verifiable deal with real limits on Iran’s nuclear program would also help relieve the dire economic situation for ordinary Iranians. While all other options remain, none is superior to a sound diplomatic resolution of our differences with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Full statement here, with signers Amb. Stuart Eizenstat, Gen. James Cartwright, Gen. Michael Hayden, Amb. John Limbert, Amb. Thomas Pickering, and many more. http://bit.ly/11Ud0wT

Tweet - @ilangoldenberg: Excellent and nuanced piece by retired Israeli Brig Gen Mike Herzog on the differences between US and Israel on Iran http://t.co/ehRc98PIqI

Iran deal and the NPT - “If the negotiations succeed by the July deadline, the agreement will be a huge reinforcement for nonproliferation. It will forestall a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and demonstrate that the world community is united in preventing the emergence of any additional nuclear powers… If negotiations ultimately fail, the NPT will be in mortal danger… Continued negotiations are a smart move. A nuclear agreement with Iran cannot be permitted to fail,” writes Barry Blechman in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1FqARlR

Keep calm - “As many predicted, the United States, its partners and Iran were unable to wrap up their negotiations in Vienna on Iran’s nuclear program by the November 24 deadline. But there is no reason to panic—Tehran’s program remains in check, and we have time to get this right… Simply put, the consequences of failure—for all sides—are too dire to give up now.” Read Tom Collina’s full column in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1HEzt16

Better than none - At some point “there will have to be a lasting deal. For now, though, the temporary agreement is better than none,” writes Bloomberg View in an editorial on the extension of talks with Iran.

--The editors explain the value of existing sanctions, but warn “tighter sanctions would probably lead Iran to abandon the talks. What then? Iran would restart nuclear fuel production as fast as it could. Airstrikes remain an option -- but not one that the U.S. (or Israel) is keen to use.” http://bv.ms/1pnavx5

Quote - “You want a piece of legislation that will help the negotiations rather than antagonizing our allies,” said Ed Levine, former Senate Foreign Affairs Committee staffer about the prospect of Congress passing new sanctions on Iran. Full report by Ron Kampeas of The Time of Israel. http://bit.ly/1xTjrfp

Podcast - “The Redline: Iran and the January Deadline” Arms Control Wonk podcast with Aaron Stein and Jeffrey Lewis. http://bit.ly/15xc9U7

Khamenei remarks - Iran’s supreme leader delivered his first remarks on the extension of nuclear talks, which “suggested that he would continue to support negotiations, but that he remained skeptical that they would yield a satisfactory agreement.” Read the full story by Thomas Erdbrink of The New York Times here. http://nyti.ms/1rtKzM0

Report - “PROJECT AND PROGRAM MANAGEMENT: DOE Needs to Revise Requirements and Guidance for Cost Estimating and Related Reviews,” from the Government Accountability Office. Nov. 25, 2014 (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1Cg26l4

Quick Hits:

--“Iran: Diplomacy Infinitum,” by Robin Wright in The New Yorker. http://nyr.kr/11Zx3c5

--“Iran Reaps Less Cash From Eased Sanctions Than Predicted,” reports Indira A.R. Lakshmanan for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/11U0BIh

--“At an Impasse With Iran,” by David Ignatius of The Washington Post. http://reut.rs/1tjcpLu

Events:

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Robert Scher to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and other nominations. December 2 at 9:30 a.m. Located in 216 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.” http://1.usa.gov/1xMdiAo

--"Breakthrough or Extension: Implications for US and European Relations with Iran," featuring Clifford Kupchan, Eurasia Group; Cornelius Adebahr, Carnegie Endowment; and Erich Ferrari, Ferrari & Associates. December 2 at 10:00 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/11o3gut

--"The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." Hosted by the Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. December 3 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Washington, DC.

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with eight speakers. From 8:30 a.m.-Noon, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School, Located At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uX6DDM

--"Countering Proliferation Finance,” featuring Leonard Spector and Moyara Ruehsen, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Dec. 2, 11:00 p.m. EST (4:00 UTC). Online webinar. Sponsored by CNS. Register here by 4:00 UTC, Dec. 2. http://bit.ly/15nJ2mn

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with nine speakers. 8:30 a.m.-noon, December 5th at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://1.usa.gov/15nK3uG

--"From Ypres to Damascus: 100 Years of Chemical Warfare and Disarmament,” hosted by the Arms Control Association. 9:00 a.m.-4:30 p.m., December 12 at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.http://bit.ly/1vbhiqq