Forecast for the Iran Talks: Challenges and Opportunities

November 25, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx

Political speedbump - “If anything, the last few weeks underscored a larger conclusion about the negotiations: If the deal had been left to Mr. Kerry and Mr. Zarif, and to their respective teams, it probably would have happened.” As David Sanger, Michael Gordon, and Peter Baker report for The New York Times, “Both were constrained by hard-line politics at home.”

--“Mr. Zarif, while friendly, outgoing and Westernized, had pushed to the very limits of his brief; he often warned that the final decision would be in the hands of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei...For his part, Mr. Kerry’s position was complicated by the Republican midterm election victory and the fear of feeding the narrative that Mr. Obama was a weakened president.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/15n47xd

Keep talking - “It's disappointing that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program failed to produce a final agreement by Monday's deadline,” write the editors of the Los Angeles Times. “But the decision by Iran and six world powers to keep talking is vastly preferable to the alternative. A rupture in the negotiations would have freed Iran from its commitment — which the International Atomic Energy Agency says Tehran has honored — not to accelerate its efforts to develop nuclear energy while negotiations proceed.”

--The consequences of failure “could be yet another U.S. military intervention in the Middle East. Members of Congress, including the new Republican leaders of the Senate, need to keep that scenario firmly in mind if they are tempted to interfere with the negotiations by passing new sanctions legislation before the extended talks have run their course. This is not a matter for political gamesmanship.” Read the full editorial here. http://lat.ms/11U6e9r

--See also: “On Iran talks, extension beats confrontation,” by the editors of USA Today. http://usat.ly/1trxuTc

Extension hurts Rouhani - With no immediate prospect of sanctions relief for Iranians, support for President Hassan Rouhani is slipping, reports Thomas Erdbrink of The New York Times. Rouhani was elected “mainly because he promised to get devastating sanctions lifted by starting negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.” With yesterday’s extension, Rouhani had failed yet again to “deliver on other promises of more freedoms and improving the economy.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1vjwc1P

Tweet - @Cirincione: .@ElbridgeColby uses debunked "FedEx wrench" story to justify spending a trillion dollars on new nuclear weapons. http://nyti.ms/1pjiivP

Breaking boundaries - “A barrier has fallen through well over a year of discussions; a 35-year-old trauma has receded,” writes Roger Cohen in The New York Times. “This immense achievement does not in itself assure success. Plenty of people want enmity preserved.”

--Cohen answers seven big questions, including why complete dismantlement doesn’t make sense (“Because it is not achievable in the real world; the perfect cannot be the enemy of the good” and the main risks to the talks (“the Republican Congress, hard-liners in Tehran around Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”) Read the full column here. http://nyti.ms/11U4dtH

No time to waste - “It is simply not possible to keep rolling the JPOA over and over, as if we have all the time in the world,” writes Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy. “The negotiators for both sides need to understand that they do not have another four months to negotiate a framework agreement. The new Congress will be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2015. It will almost immediately impose new requirements on any agreement, backed by the threat of more sanctions...The time to act is now.” http://atfp.co/1ybNDSP

Tweet - @WilliamHartung: What if Hagel had resigned for a reason, like the need to make further cuts in nukes? @HuffingtonPost tinyurl.com/mjyk43y

The breakout distraction - “Defining breakout [the amount of time it takes to produce material for a nuclear weapon] in terms of one bomb makes little practical sense,” Jim Walsh and Aron Bernstein argue in Reuters. “If Iran used that material to test its first device, Tehran would have nothing left for an actual bomb. If we used a threshold of two bomb’s worth of material --a smaller arsenal than any in history-- it would double the breakout time.”

--“If the nuclear talks collapse because fear of breakout overwhelms all other considerations, the consequences would be enormous. Iran would likely resume enriching uranium to near weapons-grade. It would fire up its 1,000 never-before-operated advanced centrifuges. Transparency would decline as the scope and number of inspections were reduced, and, ironically, Iran’s breakout time would shorten.” All because of a flawed definition. Read the full column here. http://reut.rs/1trtnGH

Blind man’s bluff - Rear Adm. Timothy M. Giardina, former 2nd in command of U.S. nuclear forces, has pled not guilty to charges that he counterfeited and knowingly used fake poker chips at a casino last year. The incident led to Giardina being relieved of command. Full story by Robert Burns in the Associated Press. http://bit.ly/15nwBqv

Battle lines - The extension “hands a significant gift to hard-liners in both countries: a seven-month window to criticize, and potentially sabotage, a final deal between Iran and the West,” reports John Hudson for Foreign Policy. Top Republicans are already pushing for new sanctions, while a handful of key liberal lawmakers support giving diplomats time to negotiate a final deal. http://atfp.co/1tgDxL5

Congressional Reactions:

--Minority Whip, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD): “I welcome the unified efforts of the P5+1 to reach a final agreement with Iran on the dismantling of its nuclear weapons program. The Administration has affirmed that the negotiations have resulted in freezing Iran’s nuclear program and that the sanctions regime has held, but status quo is not the goal.” http://1.usa.gov/11UftpU

--Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA): “I urge my colleagues in Washington to be patient, carefully evaluate the progress achieved thus far and provide U.S. negotiators the time and space they need to succeed. A collapse of the talks is counter to U.S. interests and would further destabilize an already-volatile region.” http://1.usa.gov/1y6c6YI

--Sen. Angus King (I-ME): “The stakes couldn’t be higher, but the issues are complex. I encourage our negotiators to stay at the table and explore every pathway to an acceptable resolution.” http://1.usa.gov/1Fnlquw

--Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): “It is worth taking the time to continue these negotiations in the interest of achieving a better deal...Today’s agreement to extend the terms of the interim Joint Plan of Action means that as long as the talks continue, Iran’s nuclear program will be frozen and tough sanctions will remain in place. http://1.usa.gov/1xXlYGB

--Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA): “Washington and Tehran didn't reach the final nuclear deal they were striving for, but the short-term extension of talks announced Monday should help ensure more progress can be made, both in preventing a nuclear-armed Iran and reducing the chances of yet another war in the Middle East.” http://cnn.it/1vGpPaj

Quick Hits:

--“Why Congress Should Have Courage on Iran Deal,” by John Bradshaw for Real Clear Defense. http://bit.ly/1zl06BW

--“'Progress made' but deadline extended in Iran nuclear talks,” by Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/11Smj0e

--“The Deeper Meaning of the Iran Nuclear Talks: ISIS, the Middle East and Beyond,” Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/15lYSxP

--“Republicans Push for More Iran Sanctions as Talks are Extended,” by Niels Lesniewski for Roll Call. http://bit.ly/1CazYj4

Events:

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Robert Scher to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and other nominations. December 2 at 9:30 a.m.. Located in 216 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.” http://1.usa.gov/1xMdiAo

--"Breakthrough or Extension: Implications for US and European Relations with Iran," featuring Clifford Kupchan, Eurasia Group; Cornelius Adebahr, Carnegie Endowment; and Erich Ferrari, Ferrari & Associates. December 2 at 10:00 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/11o3gut

--"The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." Hosted by the Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. December 3 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Washington, DC.

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with eight speakers. From 8:30 a.m.-Noon, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School, Located At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uX6DDM

--"Countering Proliferation Finance,” featuring Leonard Spector and Moyara Ruehsen, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Dec. 2, 11:00 p.m. EST (4:00 UTC). Online webinar. Sponsored by CNS. Register here by 4:00 UTC, Dec. 2. http://bit.ly/15nJ2mn

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with nine speakers. 8:30 a.m.-noon, December 5th at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://1.usa.gov/15nK3uG

--"From Ypres to Damascus: 100 Years of Chemical Warfare and Disarmament,” hosted by the Arms Control Association. 9:00 a.m.-4:30 p.m., December 12 at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.http://bit.ly/1vbhiqq