Iran Talks Extended: What it Means and What Comes Next?

November 24, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Kerry’s remarks - The P5+1 and Iran extended the deadline for nuclear negotiations through June, with a framework agreement to be reached by the 1st of March. “I can tell you that progress was indeed made on some of the most vexing challenges that we face, and we now see the path toward potentially resolving some issues that have been intractable,” said Secretary of State John Kerry today in Vienna after the conclusion of the latest round of talks.

--“This agreement, like any agreement, regarding security particularly, cannot be based on trust because trust can’t be built overnight. Instead, the agreement has to be based on verification, on measures that serve to build confidence over time. And I want to make it even further clear to everybody here we really want this to work – but not at the cost of just anything. We want to reach a comprehensive deal and we want it to work for everybody.”

--“I want to underscore that even as the negotiations continue towards a comprehensive deal, the world is safer than it was just one year ago....The nuclear program in Iran as we negotiate is frozen. The 20 percent enrichment has been reduced to zero. Inspectors are in the facilities. The centrifuges cannot be replaced except unless they break down. There’s no change in the level of centrifuges. We would be fools to walk away from a situation where the breakout time has already been expanded rather than narrowed...We’ve made progress and we need the time to finish.” Read the full transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/1y65FVA

Tweet - @ilangoldenberg: Diplomacy takes time. Alternative to extension is more sanctions, more enrichment and collision course. #IranTalksVienna

Tweet - @julianborger: Seems that #IranTalksVienna got much closer on enrichment capacity. Zarif expected more bargaining Sun, surprised by shift to 7-month delay

Interim deal worked - “Iran has reduced its stockpile of low-enriched uranium gas and taken other action to comply with the terms of last year's interim nuclear agreement with world powers, a U.N. nuclear agency report showed on Monday...The confidential IAEA report issued to member states, seen by Reuters, showed the stockpile now amounted to just under 7,400 kilograms, below the limit agreed with the powers last year. Early this month, it had been above the limit.” Fredrik Dahl has the full story. http://reut.rs/1pftSIo

Military perspective - Some in Congress want to pile up more sanctions on Iran. “The better course is to give our negotiators the time they need to negotiate firm limits on Iran’s nuclear program. If they fail to do so, no ground will have been lost given that Iran’s program is now halted and monitored,” writes Gen. Joseph Hoar in an op-ed for the San Diego Union Tribune. “The bottom line is that a negotiated agreement that restricts Iran’s nuclear program would benefit both of our principal objectives — regional stability and a climate conducive to democratic reform and human rights.”

--“Frankly, a negotiated outcome is also the only realistic one. National security experts from both parties have agreed on this for years…Gen. James Mattis who, like myself, is a former head of U.S, Central Command summed up the situation well, ‘The military can buy our diplomats some time, but it cannot solve this problem.’” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1tocFrO

Perfect is the enemy of good - “Iran is further away from a bomb today than before this interim deal. The nuclear sites are under unprecedented inspections...A comprehensive agreement could provide verifiable assurance that Iran’s program remains non-military, and impose intrusive inspections to provide substantial warning of cheating, break-out or ‘sneak-out.’ The main problems are political. Hardliners in Iran and the United States remain opposed to any deal,” writes Joseph Cirincione. Read the full column in Defense One http://bit.ly/1zekFjA

Human rights dimension - Without a comprehensive agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, the environment for human rights in Iran will deteriorate significantly, writes Hadi Ghaemi for The Hill. “Even individuals who are themselves survivors of human rights abuses in Iran and former political prisoners there strongly support the talks and hope for a successful agreement, contradicting the notion held by some opponents of the negotiations that human rights concerns in Iran should preclude support for the negotiations.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/14Ymus5

Congressional Reactions:

--Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA): “While I had hoped that we would have been able to reach a final deal, I support the extension of the interim deal that maintains a freeze on Iran’s nuclear program and makes progress towards a final deal.” http://1.usa.gov/1C5MCQj

--Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI): “I support the decision to extend nuclear talks with Iran...This extension demonstrates the international community’s strong desire to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. We and our allies will be more secure with such a comprehensive agreement in hand.” http://1.usa.gov/1zS7HsQ

--Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA): “Many in Congress will see this as the end of the road, the signal to toughen up already crippling sanctions. That would be the wrong move, a slap in the face to a year's worth of hard fought and honest negotiations by U.S. diplomats. Worse still, it could prompt Iran to drive its nuclear program back under ground, bringing us right back to the perilous situation we were faced with one year ago.”

--Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN): “We are closer than we have ever been to reaching a peaceful agreement and we can’t give up now. I call on Congress to support President Obama, Secretary Kerry and the P5+1 negotiators to close this deal.” http://1.usa.gov/1viZ4ar

--Rep. David Price (D-NC): “Instead of rushing to declare the talks a failure -- or taking actions to derail them altogether -- my colleagues in Congress should do everything possible to support the continuation of negotiations and progress toward a final, comprehensive agreement.” http://1.usa.gov/1viZ4ar

--Rep. John Conyers, Jr. (D-MI): “Diplomacy is the only viable path to prevent a nuclear Iran...Americans know that military confrontation—the only alternative to diplomacy—would be, in this instance, counterproductive and carry unacceptable costs in terms of lives and treasure.” http://1.usa.gov/1viZ4ar

--Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN): “I would rather the administration continue to negotiate than agree to a bad deal that would only create more instability in the region and around the world.” http://1.usa.gov/11PWwVp

--Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA): “Better an extension than a bad agreement that at one point looked like it might be coming. But if Iran hasn’t been able to make difficult choices over the past year, there is little reason to think that the Supreme Leader will see it differently over the next few months.” http://1.usa.gov/11QGzPC

--Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): “Iran was only brought to the negotiating table through tough sanctions and we need to once again increase the pressure on Iran in the weeks and months ahead to force the regime to abandon its nuclear weapons program.” http://1.usa.gov/1vGalTU

--Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL): “The Obama administration should realize that the Iranians are not serious about these talks and should abandon the negotiations.” http://1.usa.gov/1rj5Sjt

Expert Reactions:

--“Diplomacy is the only way to achieve a lasting solution to the Iran nuclear crisis. Our negotiators have labored many months to get to a final deal, and they are very close. We should support their efforts. We must give diplomacy a chance. There is no viable alternative,” said Joe Cirincione of Ploughshares Fund. http://bit.ly/11PvzBa

--“Rather than rushing recklessly into a partisan push to impose tougher sanctions, the lame-duck Congress should carefully review the progress achieved so far, help maintain the current freeze of Iran's program through the interim agreement, and support President Obama's ongoing effort with our close allies to secure an effective, long-term deal as soon as possible,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/11PvzBa

--“America's negotiators deserve credit for halting and rolling back Iran's nuclear progress. Congress must back them up as they work to finish the job,” said Dylan Williams of J Street. http://bit.ly/1rjxV1Z

--“The stakes are too high to allow hardliners in the US and Iran to torpedo a deal. That means Congress must ask tough questions, but allow negotiators the space to press for a good deal, and then verify it makes us safer,” said Angela Canterbury of the Council for a Livable World. http://bit.ly/1r2yuCX

--“In the coming days and weeks, Members of Congress need to decide which side of history they want to be on. Do they support letting diplomacy work or will they put our nation back on the path towards a war with Iran,” said the Win Without War coalition in a statement. http://bit.ly/1zS8auS

--“Keeping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is of central importance to American security. Achieving this goal through tough diplomacy, while avoiding another war in the Middle East, remains difficult but possible. Iran’s nuclear program remains verifiably frozen, as it has been for over a year. Today’s extension continues that progress and shows that the U.S. and the international community remain committed to preventing Iran from developing its nuclear weapons program,” writes Michael Breen of The Truman National Security Project. http://bit.ly/1y8XB7s

--"The worst scenario for U.S. interests is one in which Congress overwhelmingly passes new sanctions, Iran resumes its nuclear activities, and international unity unravels. Such an outcome would force the United States to revisit the possibility of another military conflict in the Middle East,” writes Karim Sadjadpour in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1y68kib

Poll - Even as the Iran talks head into extension, public opinion polls contain optimism that a final deal could stick. “Both the Iranian and American publics appear ready to support a comprehensive deal that extends the restraints Iran voluntarily implemented during the first stage of the agreement, with additional transparency and confidence-building measures. If negotiators can reach a deal on these terms, hard-liners would be hard-pressed to convince everyone else that the world would be better off without such a deal than with one,” writes Nancy Gallagher in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1vFzgY9

Iran Resources

Need some context for better understanding the Iran talks and the path forward? Below is a list of key expert and official resources.

Technical Primers

--“Implementation of the Joint Plan of Action At A Glance” by Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1aFGnWH

--“Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle: Toward a Realistic and Effective Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement” from the Arms Control Association. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1xSS8k7

Regional Perspective

--“How a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could help save Iraq” by Ryan Crocker, William Luers, and Thomas Pickering in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/VYIXAA

--”Iran and Its Neighbors: Regional Implications for U.S. Policy of a Nuclear Agreement” from The Iran Project. http://bit.ly/1wEkbp5

Official Docs

--“Summary of Technical Understandings Related to the Implementation of the Joint Plan of Action of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program” from the White House. http://1.usa.gov/Lmgujd