Iran Talks Underway: Outlook and Rumors

November 21, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Going for gold - Even if a comprehensive agreement isn’t reached by Monday, several analysts have suggested that “last-minute horse trading and flexibility could emerge in this round of Vienna talks to try reach at least a framework accord.” Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1p3SALF

--“The overwhelming consensus among roughly a dozen sources from the U.S., Europe and the Middle East is that the nuclear talks will be extended next week into early 2015,” though Israeli and Arab officials seem to expect a final deal eventually. Michael Crowley for Politico. http://politi.co/1uGiJQb

Tweet - @OswaldRachel: On the ground in Vienna, @KelseyDav tells reporters that a broad framework agreement is "most likely outcome" w/ Iran by Monday

Timeline - An interactive timeline of U.S.-Iranian relations and nuclear talks via The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1v2vy8Q

Hurdles ahead - “In Iran, the final decision on a nuclear deal lies with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader,” writes Thomas Erdbrink for The New York Times. If history is an accurate guide, the real debate over an agreement will come after the November 24 deadline. Hard-liners, clerics, Revolutionary Guards commanders, conservative lawmakers and others are sure to raise their voices be against “any compromise on Iran’s right to enrich uranium.”

--“But there is another developing line of thought in Iran that is far more hopeful, and reflects the desires of many urban Iranians. Some insiders say that a nuclear deal is being planned by powerful figures in the Iranian leadership as the start of a fundamental shift in Iran’s ideology, aimed not only at normalizing relations with the world but also at rebranding the now 35-year-old Islamic Revolution, turning away from its founding principles of anti-imperialism, anti-Americanism and strict limits on personal freedoms.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1p3xe19

Tweet - @WinWithoutWar: #FF w/ upcoming #IranTalksVienna deadline: @lrozen @barbaraslavin1 @plough_shares @NIACouncil @tparsi @KelseyDav @armscontrolnow

Feeling the hurt - As diplomats huddle in Vienna, “expectations of a breakthrough are muted in the homes, markets and offices of Iran’s capital, where residents...are exhausted by the standoff and angered by what they say is an unequal burden imposed by global sanctions.” Many are blaming Iran’s interlocutors for making unreasonable demands of the West. As one young professional in Tehran tells Bloomberg, “Ordinary people are paying the price while anyone able to afford a Porsche is just getting wealthier.” Full story by Golnar Motevalli. http://bloom.bg/1AsQB7R

Taming the French - “A year after France scuppered a deal on Iran's nuclear program it is taking a softer stance in current talks.” Last time around France saw the opportunity to take a firm stance and assert itself internationally by giving the U.S. led talks a slap on the wrist with little actual risk to the negotiations. “This time round however a failed agreement would have potentially dire consequences… That's something France's diplomats do not want to take responsibility for.” Read the full story by John Irish for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1F8A5Ij

PMD questions linger - Iran has yet to fully address IAEA questions regarding aspects of its past nuclear weapons work, reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. Hawkish lawmakers may use the IAEA investigation, which is separate from the international negotiations over Iran’s current program, as a reason to protest a final nuclear deal. http://reut.rs/1z321ek

Jaw-jaw or war-war? - “Should the West call the whole thing off, erase the tentative détente with Iran, return to unrelieved tension, and allow the mullahs to escalate their nuclear program with no controls or inspections, leading to a possible regional arms race or war? Or should the talks be extended?” As Fred Kaplan argues in Slate, “One should hope for an extension. Fortunately, there’s also a good case for going that route.” Read the column story here. http://slate.me/1vvWYp2

Educated guess - “North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center remains shut down after 10 weeks, longer than what is required for routine maintenance.” This could suggest: “1) the shutdown may have allowed the North to remove a limited number of fuel rods, possibly failed, from the reactor; and 2) Pyongyang may be preparing to restart the Radiochemical Laboratory, which separates weapons-grade plutonium from waste products in spent nuclear fuel rods.” Read the full analysis from Nick Hansen for 38 North here. http://bit.ly/1uBZZRY

Tweet - @cirincione: Can't help but notice we've been waiting almost 500 days for Senate to confirm a new Asst. Sec for Arms Control & Verification.

Party on? - “North Korea is ready to resume international talks on its nuclear programs and to work on restoring trade ties with South Korea,” writes Carol J. Williams for the Los Angeles Times. “Choe Ryong Hae, special envoy of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, presented Putin with a letter from Kim that offered to restart the six-party nuclear negotiations that have been suspended for five years, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reported.” Read the full story here. http://lat.ms/1uK04mA

Report “Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age,” by Gregory D. Koblentz. http://on.cfr.org/11zqX27

You’re grounded - “As young children, our parents sometimes give us an allowance to teach basic budgeting skills. You can’t spend more than your parents give you or else you’ll get in trouble,” writes Ethan Rosenkranz of the Project On Government Oversight. Not if you’re the Pentagon, which wants to spend $115 billion above what sequestration allows. If analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is correct, the number will actually be much higher, with an overage of $182 billion between FY 2015 through FY 2019.

--Things will only get worse as the Navy embarks on large scale nuclear weapons modernization in the 2020’s. One solution is “to reduce the planned number of SSBN(X) from twelve to eight vessels, which would still provide a robust sea-based deterrent...Reducing the planned buy by four vessels could save at least $18 billion in operations, maintenance, research, and procurement costs over ten years, and up to $122 billion in savings over the 50-year lifecycle of the program.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1vtmzzG

Quick Hits:

--“Iran Nuclear Deal Could Ease the Way for Humanitarian Trade,” by Jamila Trindle in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/11GW1Ol

--“North Dakota nuclear missile base struggles to recover from scandals,” by W.J. Hennigan for the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1yyOZW9

--“US and Iran prepare for the blame game,” by Geoff Dyer for the Financial Times. http://on.ft.com/1xVWnvs

--“CMRR-NF Cancelled, but Questions Linger,” by Scott Amey for the Project on Government Oversight. http://bit.ly/1BUplRe

--“Independent Review of DOD’s Nuclear Enterprise: Money, Maintenance, and Morale,” by Eryn MacDonald for the Union of Concerned Scientists. http://bit.ly/1uNWbyy

Events:

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

--"Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: the Road Ahead." Featuring Gary Samore, Harvard University; David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security; and Edward Levine, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. November 25 from 10:30 a.m.-Noon in the Saul/Zilkha Rooms at the Brookings Institution. Located at 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://brook.gs/1sYRFsk

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Robert Scher to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and other nominations. December 2 at 9:30 a.m.. Located in 216 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.” http://1.usa.gov/1xMdiAo

--"Breakthrough or Extension: Implications for US and European Relations with Iran," featuring Clifford Kupchan, Eurasia Group; Cornelius Adebahr, Carnegie Endowment; and Erich Ferrari, Ferrari & Associates. December 2 at 10:00 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/11o3gut

--"The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." Hosted by the Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. December 3 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Washington, DC.

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with eight speakers. From 8:30 a.m.-Noon, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School, Located At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uX6DDM

Extra Dessert:

Beer run - “Setting out on a nuclear submarine patrol is is... monotonous there is nothing to look at, work is demanding and both sleep and space are in short supply. Navy ships can execute Steel Beach events and even the rare 'Beer Day' to give overworked crews a break, but subs are a different story... Usually.

--“This story, told by a veteran submariner who will remain anonymous, is of a US nuclear fast attack submarine that rippled off all of its Tomahawk cruise missiles in anger, then was the benefactor of one of the most spectacular beer runs of all time. The result of which was a rare, if not unprecedented occasion for an American nuclear submarine crew.” Read the full story from Tyler Rogoway for Kinja. http://bit.ly/1v2MRXf

Not your average presser - A photo of Lt. Gen. Lesley Groves, director of the Manhattan Project, giving his first press conference after the dropping of atomic bombs on Japan. Via Frank Munger of Atomic City Underground. http://bit.ly/1xZjuGl