Kerry Heads to Vienna, Partisan Attack Lines Form in Congress

On the radar: Rubio and Republicans posturing; Kerry goes wheels up; What’s at stake; the Need for a deal by deadline; Economic incentives of a deal; Top 5 benefits of a deal; China Commission report drops; North Korea mad again; and a History lesson on UN sanctions.

November 20, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren

Partisan posturing - 43 Republican senators sent a letter warning the president not to circumvent Congress by providing sanctions relief to Iran as part of a final deal. Without a single Democrat, the letter sends a purely partisan signal. BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray reports. http://bzfd.it/1vte7Au

Tweet - @JohnKerry: Wheels up to #Vienna #IranNuclearTalks

The stakes - “Keeping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is of central importance to American security — and achieving this through tough diplomacy is difficult, but possible. My generation of combat veterans, foreign policy practitioners, and political leaders understands all too well the sacrifice that may be required if diplomacy fails,” writes Michael Breen in the Boston Globe.

--“While the parties are still far apart on some key technical issues, both sides have incentives to come to an agreement that solves the Iran nuclear crisis through diplomacy, not war.” Read the full column. http://bit.ly/1p3662l

Tweet - @ilangoldenberg: Only things we know for sure about Vienna: 1) Ignore preliminary reports. We won't know 'til we know. 2) Lots of tired diplomats. #IranTalks

How it’s playing - Negotiations in Vienna continue with few hints as to whether the next few days will yield a comprehensive deal. To get a sense of how it’s playing, read the headline stories below.

--”Iran nuclear talks stuck, deadline may be extended: officials” by Louis Charbonneau and Parisa Hafezi of Reuters. http://reut.rs/1xG3Y3m

“Kerry strives for unity as Iran nuclear talks deadline nears” by Jay Solomon, Laurence Norman and Stacy Meichtry of The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1yXwKcF

--”Kerry Stops in Paris Ahead of Iran Nuclear Talks in Vienna” by Michael R. Gordon of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1xWMgHx

Don’t let Iran walk- As talks with Iran approach deadline, some argue that talks could be extended or postponed. “The evidence suggests, in fact, that failure to conclude a deal now will see Iran’s position grow less accommodating, while Western leverage through sanctions will decline dramatically. Putting off a deal yet again would, in fact, produce a perilous slide back towards crisis and confrontation,” writes Gary Sick.

--The author shows how failure to get a deal could embolden Iran’s hardliners, sideline President Rouhani, and unravel the international sanctions regime. Full article in Politico Magazine. http://politi.co/1zG0eg9

War hawks’ last ditch effort - In less than a week, we will find out if nuclear negotiators with Iran land a comprehensive deal, an extension of talks or an agreement in principle. “Not on the menu -- at least among the principals at the negotiations -- is a return to the escalatory cycle that defined the past decade and threatened constantly to spill over into war,” writes Tyler Cullis for the Huffington Post.

--“That doesn't mean [war hawks in Congress] won't try to spoil an agreement...However, if the White House has the wherewithal to withstand Republican-led attacks on a nuclear deal, U.S. hawks will be without any further means to advance us towards war against Iran. A nuclear agreement will take hold; both sides will adhere to their reciprocal obligations; and the world will be free of both renewed conflict and a new nuclear-weapons power.” Read the full column here. http://huff.to/1F3P9c1

U.S. economic benefits of a deal - There could be significant benefits for the American and global economy if an agreement lets Iran increase its foreign trade, writes economist David Hale in The National Interest.

--“Iran would be able to increase oil exports dramatically over two or three years.” Not only would this boost the Iranian economy, but the resulting decline in the price of oil would put even more pressure on the oil dependent economies of leading belligerents towards America, including Russia. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/14R1pji

Top 5 - What are the potential benefits of a nuclear deal with Iran? Navid Hassibi drafts a top 5 list for The National Interest.

--Bringing an end the nuclear dispute with Iran could 1) “avert a disastrous military conflict in a region already enmeshed in strife;” 2) “guarantee that Iran’s nuclear capacity remains exclusively peaceful;” 3) “pave the way for the broader de-conflicting of regional interests, which could in turn lead to a form of sustained détente;” 4) “help strengthen the global economic environment;” and 5) embolden President Rouhani “to address human-rights issues.” http://bit.ly/1Hq171v

China report - The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released its annual report to Congress this week. Relevant sections for Early Warning readers below.

--“China’s Military Modernization” (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1qA5dPO

--“Recent Developments in China’s Relationship with North Korea” (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1x5an2Z

Blusterer blusters - North Korea threatened Thursday to conduct a fourth nuclear test “in response to the ‘grave political provocation’ of international efforts to charge the country’s leader with crimes against humanity,” writes Anna Fifield for the Washington Post.

--“The developments mark a return, at least temporarily, to bluster after a months-long charm offensive in which Pyongyang tried to thwart a U.N. resolution condemning the North Korean leadership for decades of human rights abuses. A U.N. General Assembly committee Tuesday approved the resolution, sponsored by the European Union and Japan, paving the way for Kim Jong Un and his cadres to be referred to the International Criminal Court.” Full story here. http://wapo.st/1ueT517

Sanctions danger - For an Iran deal to work, the West should remember that UN sanctions have a history of being counterproductive, writes former French Ambassador François Nicoullaud for LobeLog.

--”The Gordian knot that the UNSC sanctions represent should be slashed asunder….at least after a moderately short period in which Iran’s determination to comply with its terms could be confirmed. Such a gesture could also be linked appropriately to the formal ratification by Iran’s parliament of the Additional Protocol that Tehran had signed during an unsuccessful round of talks back in 2003—the two moves being equally irreversible.” http://bit.ly/1xMyshL

Tweet - @steven_pifer: Short, interesting video on #CTBT Org's exercise in Jordan to test, display treaty's on-site verification mechanism. https://t.co/PBW66Ve20e

Quick Hits:

--“Iranian Activists, Intellectuals Express Support For Nuclear Deal,” by Golnaz Esfandiari for Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. http://bit.ly/11jP8BN

--“Russia’s Plans in Iran Could Make Waves in Nuclear Talks,” interview with Robert Siegel and Ariane Tabatabai for NPR. http://n.pr/1AnyLmR

--“The United States Should Chew Gum and Walk on Nuclear Security,” by Nickolas Roth for Nuclear Security Matters. http://bit.ly/14N4alt

Events:

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

--"Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: the Road Ahead." Featuring Gary Samore, Harvard University; David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security; and Edward Levine, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. November 25 from 10:30 a.m.-Noon in the Saul/Zilkha Rooms at the Brookings Institution. Located at 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://brook.gs/1sYRFsk

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Robert Scher to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and other nominations. December 2 at 9:30 a.m.. Located in 216 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.” http://1.usa.gov/1xMdiAo

--"Breakthrough or Extension: Implications for US and European Relations with Iran," featuring Clifford Kupchan, Eurasia Group; Cornelius Adebahr, Carnegie Endowment; and Erich Ferrari, Ferrari & Associates. December 2 at 10:00 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/11o3gut

--"The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." Hosted by the Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. December 3 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Washington, DC.

--"Countering WMD's: Semi-annual Workshop," with eight speakers. From 8:30 a.m.-Noon, hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School, Located At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uX6DDM