State of Play as Iran Talks Enter Final Week

November 19, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

“Too big to fail” - “The best reasons for optimism in Vienna are the disastrous consequences of failure. But that is not enough to guarantee success. For domestic political reasons, the Obama administration needs to demonstrate that Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium has been radically shrunk by any deal signed in Vienna. The Rouhani government has to demonstrate the very opposite in Tehran,” writes Julian Borger in a summary of the state of play for the Iran negotiations

--Borger outlines the final points of contention - including centrifuge numbers, breakout times and sanctions relief - to show how Iran and world powers boxed themselves into the current impasse. From this, the author finds room for optimism on getting a deal with Iran. “A far more solid foundation for hope is the potentially catastrophic consequences of failure,” where the US Congress and Iranian Majlis overreact and provoke new threats of military action. Full story in The Guardian.http://bit.ly/1qrKIVo

Something’s gotta give - “With just days before the November 24 deadline for reaching a diplomatic solution to the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran’s politically-driven insistence on maintaining its current uranium enrichment capacity is standing in the way of a comprehensive agreement,” writes Daryl Kimball for The Times of Israel. “To overcome the remaining gaps and reach a deal, Iran and the United States must both be willing to exercise some flexibility.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1xPxm4O

“How close is close” - “As negotiations reconvene here in Vienna, Iran and its six counterparts in the P5+1 are close to finalizing a comprehensive nuclear deal that would end over a decade of conflict,” writes Reza Marashi for IranWire. “[But] how close is close? Some P5+1 negotiators say the deal is 95 percent done – but the remaining five percent is the most difficult details. For both sides, the costs of failure are likely catastrophic. Precisely because the stakes have never been higher, it is important to nail down the sticking points and major obstacles that must be overcome.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/11fVceE

Defining a good deal - Negotiators from Iran and six world powers are entering the final stages of talks over Iran’s nuclear program that have a deadline of November 24. If they do manage to secure an agreement, U.S. policy makers will inevitably debate whether it is a “good deal or a bad deal,” writes Daryl Kimball for The National Interest.

--It is crucial that an agreement be assessed on “its overall effect in reducing Iran’s nuclear capacity and improving upon our existing capabilities to detect and deter any ongoing or future Iranian weapons program—not on the basis of how it addresses any single feature of Iran’s nuclear program.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1yocWiU

Nuclear babysitters - “Bombers fly non-nuclear missions and sub crews at least get to sail, but the missileers exist in a world apart, suspended in time in their holes in the ground, counting the hours. Many have complained of a lack of career-advancement options, poor leadership, and badly outdated equipment,” writes Reid Cherlin of New York Magazine in a long-form article on the day-to-day for missileers in ICBM silos.

--Full article here: “Babysitting the Bomb: Meet the Missileers Who Watch Over America’s Nuclear Arsenal.” http://nym.ag/1t55A09

Attention needed - “Clearly, high-level Pentagon attention to the repeated management lapses and instances of personal misconduct within the nation’s nuclear arsenal, specifically the ICBM force, is urgently needed,” writes Kingston Reif in Arms Control Today “However, it’s unclear that these problems can be solved by more money or more organizational changes.”

--“The core issue goes beyond management and personnel, and is rooted in the fact that nuclear weapons play an increasingly limited role in U.S. national security policy...Such a bloated arsenal is irrelevant to the most urgent security challenges that the United States and its allies face today, including cyberthreats, weak and failing states, global pandemics such as Ebola, climate change, terrorism, and more.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1qrsVxq

Talks continue - “Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif held a lunch meeting Tuesday with the chair of the six-power group, former European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, and there were bilateral talks between the U.S. and Iranian teams,” reports Laurence Norman for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1xPzXfg

Reports -“Revisiting Iran’s Stock of Near 20 Percent LEU,” by David Albright and Paulina Izewicz for the Institute of Science and International Security. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1F3udBH

--“Evaluating Iran’s Stock of Less than Five Percent Low Enriched Uranium,” by David Albright and Paulina Izewicz. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1xUI9vx

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: Deal that prevents Iran nukes wld "demonstrate that the global non-proliferation system works" says @FitzpatrickIISS http://ow.ly/ExjNu

Wreck it ralph - If, or when, Congress tries to torpedo Iran negotiations, they will have a number of tools to work with. “Because the deal rides on sanctions relief, Congress can deprive the American negotiating team of its strongest bargaining chip by either imposing new sanctions on Iran or making it very difficult for the U.S. to keep any promise to roll back existing sanctions,” writes Kaveh Waddell for The National Journal.

--But wrecking diplomacy may come at a cost. "Five years from now, when the Iranians are sitting there with their nuclear weapons and threatening their neighbors, the people who said 'let's wreck this deal' won't look so good,” Dan Marcus of American University. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1uvFDJP

Tweet - @cirincione: Failure to get #IranDeal would benefit radicals in region & hardliners in Iran, warn Iranian freedom activists. http://bit.ly/1vn59oj

Preventing nuclear terror - “The risks of ISIS getting a nuclear bomb are small. But they are not zero,” writes Joe Cirincione for Huffington Post. “The best line of defense is to prevent ISIS from getting the materials.”

--“This requires ramping up efforts to secure nuclear materials and nuclear sites worldwide. Russia's recent withdrawal [from key aspects of nuclear cooperation programs] must be reversed as quickly as possible. We should redouble our efforts with Pakistan….And we should stop spending billions on an obsolete U.S. nuclear arsenal and move at least part of those funds to preventing ISIS or any other group from getting one bomb.” Full column here. http://huff.to/1t4McQO

Enforce North Korea sanctions - “The effectiveness of the sanctions regime depends on the willingness and ability of the international community to prohibit illicit trade. However, that record has been mixed,” Jeffrey Lewis and Catherine Dill write for 38 North.

--Lewis and Dill examine the case of Huichon Ryonha, a North Korean company that makes machine tools that are essential for producing missile and centrifuge components. Ryonha clients Russia and China “should assist the UN Panel of Experts in examining the activities of these entities…[and] may be obligated to freeze the assets of these firms pursuant to UN Security Council resolutions.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1p18ZAD

Quick Hits:

--“Rep. McDermott Defends Iran Diplomacy,” on the House floor. Video via C-SPAN. http://cs.pn/11CeY4F

--“Boeing aims to make missile defense more like space programs,” reports Andrea Shalal for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1p1sZ60

--“Turing and Oppenheimer,” by Michael Krepon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1uJcJYx

--“Back In The Cold War The US Wasn't Above A Little Provocation Itself,” by Michael Ballaban for Foxtrot Alpha. http://bit.ly/1teN3gY

--Richard Haas discusses transparency and Iran’s nuclear program with Bloomberg TV. http://bloom.bg/1Hl2j6i

--“Iran will do a deal with the west – but only if there’s no loss of dignity,” by Hooman Majd in The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1qmQrMe

Events:

--“Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and North Africa, hearing on "Examining What a Nuclear Iran Deal Means for Global Security," with Gen. Michael Hayden (retired), Mark Dubowitz, and Karim Sadjadpour. November 20 from 1:00­-4:00 pm in 2172 Rayburn House Office Building.

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

--"Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: the Road Ahead." Featuring Gary Samore, Harvard University; David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security; and Edward Levine, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. November 25 from 10:30 a.m.-Noon in the Saul/Zilkha Rooms at the Brookings Institution. Located at 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://brook.gs/1sYRFsk

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Robert Scher to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and other nominations. December 2, 9:30 a.m., 216 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington. Webcast on the committee website.” http://1.usa.gov/1xMdiAo

--The Atlantic Council briefing on "Breakthrough or Extension: Implications for US and European Relations with Iran," 10:00 a.m., in Washington, D.C. http://bit.ly/11o3gut

--Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace briefing on "The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." December 3 at 9:30 a.m., in Washington, D.C.

Dessert:

In this together - “It may seem hard to believe today, with tensions rising between Russia and the West. But late in the Cold War, both the U.S. and the USSR directly measured nuclear experiments at each others’ test sites,” writes Steve Weintz for War is Boring. This is the story of Nick Aquilina, whose job was to get teams of American of scientists, weaponeers, drillers, riggers and inspectors back and forth to the USSR.

--“The unlikely but successful collaboration helped to end the five-decade conflict...As relations with Russia sour and America’s nuclear arsenal ages, we need to restore this collaborative spirit. The Bomb reminds us, in the most forceful way, that we’re all in this together.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1AhVoZP