Should the U.S. and Russia Cooperate on Nuclear Security?

On the radar: Securing loose nukes; Iran talks update; Shlomo Brom on a deal; Lessons from Pyongyang; Old nukes, old thinking; Russia’s reactor deal; U.S. and Iranian opponents to a deal have a lot in common; and MOX gets a stay of execution.

November 18, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren

U.S.-Russia nuclear security - “Should Washington and Moscow continue to work together to reduce nuclear stockpiles and cooperate to secure, or eliminate, weapons and nuclear materials despite the dispute around Russian actions in Ukraine?” asks The New York Times. Click below for expert responses.

--”We Must Be a Global Model for Collaboration on Nuclear Security” by Joan Rohlfing. http://nyti.ms/1t9juNS

--”For U.S. and Russia, Isolation Can Lead to Nuclear Catastrophe” by Sig Hecker. http://nyti.ms/1t9jKwj

--”If We Cooperated With Russia During the Cold War, Why Not Now?” by William Martel. http://nyti.ms/1xkiBIj

--”Reinvent Arms Control for the Present Day” by Sergey Rogov. http://nyti.ms/11gF7Fl

Overview - “Iran and six world powers are closer than ever to a deal that would crimp Tehran's ability to make nuclear arms...Substantial differences remain. A deal by the Nov. 24 target date is unlikely. Both sides may be willing to extend. But that could strengthen opposition in U.S. Congress, triggering a backlash by Iranian hardliners and culminating in the breakup of further negotiations.” Get the full Associated Press analysis of where things stand. http://bit.ly/1EZsT2Y

Preparing for the 24th - To prepare for the possible outcomes of the Iran talks, the U.S. must “ensure that its actions in dealing with the Iranian nuclear program are as closely coordinated as possible with its most reliable partners in the Middle East, the countries on the frontlines who will feel the greatest impact in terms of what comes next with Iran and its nuclear program,” writes Shlomo Brom, a former brigadier general in the Israeli Defense Forces. The full Center for American Progress issue brief on the range of scenarios is here: http://ampr.gs/1vm5ZkC

History lesson - Opponents of diplomacy with Iran are quick point to the failures of nuclear talks with North Korea. But the lesson there isn’t about collapse of a deal, but that the parties botched implementation. “A review of the negotiating history shows, moreover, that Pyongyang was not alone in reneging. Washington did so, too—often before Pyongyang did—thereby failing to test whether Pyongyang would have complied. As a consequence, there is no sure way of knowing whether nuclear diplomacy would have worked with North Korea,” writes Sig Hecker in The National Interest.

--“Trust is in short supply on both sides of the negotiating table. Intentions are uncertain. Skepticism abounds. If a deal [with Iran] has any chance of success, Washington has to do what it failed to do with Pyongyang: live up to its commitments and test whether Tehran does so in return.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1yPkIlK

Blast from the past - The recent mishaps with Navy and Air Force personnel in charge of nuclear weapons should “give the White House and Congress a chance to rethink the U.S. deterrence mission before returning airmen to those buried missile silos or sending sailors off on new strategic submarine patrols,” writes the Washington Post’s Walter Pincus.

--The problems are more about the mission than just the missileers, writes Pincus. “Irrationality has been a hallmark of nuclear weapons planning since August 1945...While the numbers have dropped significantly over the years, it’s past time to rethink how many delivery systems and warheads are needed.” Read the full column here. http://wapo.st/14EOQHz

Tweet - @ThomasErdbrink: I am one of the few foreigners in Iran, and everywhere I go people ask me: what about the nuclear deal? Most are convinced it will happen.

Domestic challenges - “Distrust and Verify: Why Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s obstacles to a nuclear deal are surprisingly similar to President Obama’s” by Farideh Farhi for Slate. Read the full story here. http://slate.me/1t91B1u

Tweet - @enfein: Turns out the elusive nuclear missile wrench justifying billions more $ was at ICBM bases all along http://1.usa.gov/1ql9oik

All uphill from here - “The easy years of being a nuclear power are over,” writes Adam Mount in The National Interest. Two reviews released last week “found major deficiencies in leadership, manpower, unit morale and equipment—problems endemic to a nuclear force at a pivotal moment. The usual partisan answers will not suffice for the next decades: the country must take a candid look at its nuclear forces and make some very hard choices. Most importantly, the Obama administration must prove that its basic bargain—a safe, secure, effective and declining arsenal—is possible.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1xTBD8m

Bridging gaps - In a recent deal on the sides of nuclear talks with Iran, Russia agreed to build additional nuclear reactors in Iran, fuel them and remove the spent fuel. This could be part of a win-win situation that the negotiating parties have been searching for. “Iran retains an ambitious civilian nuclear programme; Russia gets influence and money; the West gets guarantees that Iran cannot get close to building an atomic bomb without great risk...a positive interpretation is that it was meant to facilitate a compromise on the central issue of the number of uranium-enrichment centrifuges Iran could keep.” Read the full story in The Economist. http://econ.st/114JsuT

Shared interests - “It’s clear to both Khamenei and Rohani that the opportunity to make a deal may soon lapse due to the new constellation in the U.S. Congress,” writes Zvi Bar’el, Middle Eastern affairs analyst for Haaretz. ”Ironically, therefore, a shared political interest has been created between the Iranian and American leaders, in which each leader’s status in his own country depends on the other in a way that wasn’t true in the past.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1qkNPyn

MOX timeline extended - The mixed-oxide fuel fabrication facility at the Savannah River Site is billions over budget and years behind schedule, but the contractor just got a reprieve: federal regulators have granted a 10-year extension for construction on the project. The Associated Press reports: http://bit.ly/1Ada4ta

Quick Hits:

--“AF creates teams to address nuclear infrastructure problems” by Brian Everstine at Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1xjQIAh

--“Testing nuclear-test-ban treaty preparations” by Mark Fitzpatrick at Survival. http://bit.ly/1zvxRRM

--“US and Iranian negotiators in crunch nuclear talks,“ by Julian Borger for The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1uqvcaF

Events:

--“Deal or No Deal: Can We Stop Iran from Making a Nuclear Bomb?” Featuring Joe Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund. November 18 from 5:15-7:00 p.m. at the Cosmopolitan Club, located 122 E. 66th St., New York. Sponsored by Off the Record. Available to members of the Foreign Policy Association for a registration fee of $40. Register online. http://bit.ly/1xPqEwP

--“Weighing the Costs and Benefits of a Prospective U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal." Featuring Michael Doran, Hillel Fradkin, Ray Takeyh, and David Albright. November 19 from noon-1:30 p.m. Located at the Hudson Institute. http://bit.ly/1xesuHm

--“Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and North Africa, hearing on "Examining What a Nuclear Iran Deal Means for Global Security," with Gen. Michael Hayden (retired), Mark Dubowitz, and Karim Sadjadpour. November 20 from 1:00­-4:00 pm in 2172 Rayburn House Office Building.

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

--"Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: the Road Ahead." Featuring Gary Samore, Harvard University; David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security; and Edward Levine, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. November 25 from 10:30 a.m.-Noon in the Saul/Zilkha Rooms at the Brookings Institution. Located at 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://brook.gs/1sYRFsk

--Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the nomination of Robert Scher to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and other nominations. December 2, 9:30 a.m., 216 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington. Webcast on the committee website.” http://1.usa.gov/1xMdiAo

--The Atlantic Council briefing on "Breakthrough or Extension: Implications for US and European Relations with Iran," 10:00 a.m., in Washington, D.C. http://bit.ly/11o3gut

--Arms Control Association and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace briefing on "The Outcome of the Iran talks and the Next Steps." December 3 at 9:30 a.m., in Washington, D.C.