Pentagon Report: Big Problems and Expensive Fixes

On the radar: DoD nuclear reports released; Throw money at it; Management tweaks; It’s the mission not the missiles; Nuclear bailout sought; Russia ices nonpro cooperation; Preserving momentum in the Iran talks; Why verification is essential for a deal; and Lockheed uses taxpayer money to lobby for more taxpayer money.

November 17, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Nuclear enterprise broken - “The Pentagon will have to spend billions of dollars over the next five years to make emergency fixes to its nuclear weapons infrastructure,” report David Sanger and William Broad for The New York Times. “This comes after two separate Pentagon studies concluded that there are ‘systemic problems across the nuclear enterprise.’” An independent study on nuclear forces was released Friday, along with the key points of an internal review.

--“The billions Mr. Hagel will promise are for short-term fixes; some will be shifted from other projects. But even before the reports were completed, the Obama administration had told the Pentagon to plan for 12 new missile submarines, up to 100 new bombers and 400 land-based missiles, either new or refurbished. Recently, the Monterey Institute of International Studies estimated the total cost of the country’s nuclear enterprise over the next three decades at up to $1.1 trillion.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1GWdl1V

Hagel remarks - “The internal and external reviews I ordered show that a consistent lack of investment and support for our nuclear forces - over far too many years - has left us with too little margin to cope with mounting stresses. The reviews found evidence of systematic problems that, if not addressed, could undermine the safety, security, and effectiveness of the elements of the force in the future,” said Sec. Chuck Hagel in his remarks at the Pentagon last Friday.

--“These problems include manning, infrastructure, and skill deficiencies; a culture of micro-management and over-inspection; and inadequate communication, follow- up, and accountability by senior department in nuclear enterprise leadership. The root cause has been a lack of sustained focus, attention, and resources, resulting in a pervasive sense that a career in the nuclear enterprise offers too few opportunities for growth and advancement.” Full remarks here. http://1.usa.gov/1ydollo

What about the bill? - Asked about how much money and from what military priority it’s getting taken, Sec. hagel answered, “the specifics on how much and where, and all that will be laid out in our budget that we present to the Congress earlier this year. But over the -- the next five years, the future fiscal years for -- for, as you know, how we present our budgets, we're probably looking at a 10-percent increase in the nuclear enterprise over each of those years. Right now, we spend about $15 to $16 billion on our nuclear enterprise, so that gives you some kind of range.” Full press briefing transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/1t3Su2b

Nuclear Enterprise Review

--“Independent Review of the Department of Defense Nuclear Enterprise,” led by Gen. Larry Welch (USAF, Ret.) and Adm. John Harvey Jr. (USN, Ret.). (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1yMtOj8

--Internal Nuclear Enterprise Review summary. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/11vvvrh

--NER fact sheet. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1xxlbMD

Tweet - @ArmsControlWonk: By my count, these two nuclear enterprise reports are the 6th and 7th blue-ribbon reviews since the 2007 Minot incident. 7th time's a charm!

Nuclear bailout? - These new investments occur as part of a big shift in nuclear weapons spending. As Marcus Weisgerber writes in Defense One, “The Pentagon is considering a radical change to the way funds its nuclear forces by shifting money for ICBMs, nuclear bombers and nuclear submarines outside of the Defense Department’s budget and into a new account.”

--“This type of change would elevate the status of the American military’s nuclear mission among senior leadership and could possibly free up tens of billions of dollars inside the Pentagon budget for other conventional priorities...DOD’s nuclear programs compete with conventional projects within both the Air Force and Navy budgets. Oftentimes, the non-nuclear projects, such as new aircraft and ships, have been made a higher priority among military leadership,” which is how ICBM base security became stuck with Vietnam vintage helicopters.

--“Some are skeptical that more money is the right way to address the issue. ‘It’s unlikely that these problems can be solved by more money, more stars, more organizational changes, reducing burdens on airmen, or recommitting to the importance of nuclear deterrence without addressing the underlying problem,’ said Kingston Reif, of the Arms Control Association. ‘The reality is that nuclear weapons play an increasingly limited role in U.S. national security policy, but our arsenal is still configured and sized for a Cold War world that no longer exists.’ Full story here. http://bit.ly/1u1AZQj

It’s the mission, not the money - “We must change the culture of the nuclear force, especially in the Air Force,” said Secretary Hagel on Friday. But according to Josh Harkinson of Mother Jones, “the consensus among the experts was that no amount of funding or attention will be enough to fix the ICBM program's biggest problem: obsolescence.”

--“I am deeply disappointed with the happy talk coming out of the Air Force and Department of Defense on this," said Ploughshares Fund’s Joe Cirincione. "These missileers are in dead-end jobs and they know it. They pull 24-hour shifts underground waiting to push a button that they know they are never going to push, and if they did, they would be condemning hundreds of thousands of civilians to death. What kind of job is that? New helicopters and new managers are not going to fix this problem. Nothing the Air Force is doing is going to reduce the risk. It's not missileers who are at fault, it's the mission." Full story here. http://bit.ly/1BkZlOL

Don’t let a deal slip away - “After a year of work, the major powers and Iran face a Nov. 24 deadline for completing an agreement that would limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions...Since nobody wants to see the process collapse, there is talk about extending the negotiations and even codifying, in broad terms, the considerable progress that has been achieved already.”

--“In one way or another, the momentum must be preserved and the chances for a comprehensive permanent agreement kept alive; anything less would be a tragedy,” writes The New York Times. “The consequences of failure to reach an accord would be serious, including the weakening of President Hassan Rouhani of Iran and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who count as moderates in Iran, and who, like President Obama, have taken a political risk to try to make an agreement happen.”

--“For nearly a year, Iran has adhered to an interim agreement that froze and rolled back its nuclear program. This experience offers some hope that, subject to a rigorous verification regime, Iran will be able to fulfill a more permanent agreement. President Obama took the right step recently when he wrote to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to nudge him toward a nuclear deal. The other leaders should weigh in as well. This agreement is too important to let slip away.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1y8Wfb7

Dueling messages - “Capitol Hill will be a beehive of dueling messages on Iran next week as negotiators hurdle toward their self-imposed Nov. 24 deadline for a nuclear deal,” writes Julian Pecquet in Al Monitor. “The Republican-controlled House Foreign Affairs Committee will hold not one but two hearings on the risks of a "bad deal" with Tehran. Peace activists, meanwhile, are planning a show of force toward the end of the week with just days to go before the deadline.”

--“Countering hawkish lawmakers...the Quaker lobby Friends Committee on National Legislation is sending its activists to Capitol Hill on Nov. 20-21 as part of its annual meeting in Washington. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., a diplomacy champion who blocked Iran legislation this past week, will address the group at a luncheon on Nov. 20.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1qdNMo7

Tweet - @MoveOn: .@ChrisMurphyCT Thanks for standing up and stopping GOP bill seeking to undermine diplomacy with Iran

Verification works - Verification is the key component of a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran, argues Greg Thielmann in The Hill. “The verification and monitoring measures of any likely agreement will afford greater access to Iranian facilities by international inspectors than they have ever had previously. Without an agreement, the IAEA would forfeit the increased access it has temporarily gained, the U.S. intelligence community would lose confidence in its assessments, and the specter of war would loom large.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1yMCvKk

Tweet - @NIACouncil: #Iran diplomacy is good for human rights http://bit.ly/1xxwVhY

Nuclear freeze (not the good kind) - “Russia has informed the United States that it is planning to reduce its participation next year in a joint effort to secure nuclear materials on Russian territory, a move that could seriously undermine more than two decades of cooperation aimed at ensuring that nuclear bomb components do not fall into the hands of terrorists or a rogue state,” writes Michael R. Gordon for The New York Times.

--The reduced cooperation is perceived as a byproduct of the serious downturn in relations between Russia and the United States, which has occurred as a result of President Vladimir Putin’s decision to intervene militarily in Ukraine. “But it also stems from longstanding concerns among Kremlin hard-liners about a program that brings American nuclear experts to Russia’s nuclear sites and that, they fear, may create the impression that Russia is in need of outside help.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1ukzkKC

The show must go on - "Despite our differences, the United States and Russia, as the nations with the world’s largest nuclear stockpiles, have a responsibility to lead — to continue working together toward a world where all nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material worldwide are effectively and sustainably secured against the full spectrum of plausible threats. We worked together to build the global nonproliferation regime when our countries were locked in a global Cold War — we can and must work together to secure nuclear materials today,” said Harvard’s Matt Bunn in comments for Nuclear Security Matters. More expert quotes here. http://bit.ly/1xPjsAK

Self-Licking ice cream cone - The Department of Energy’s top auditor has asserted in a new report that Lockheed Martin, and “top officials that helped it operate the Sandia nuclear weapons labs in Albuquerque, appear to have violated federal laws when they used some of their contract funds to pay for lobbying and other forms of pressure on DOE to obtain the contract renewal.”

--The Inspector General’s “summary of his extensive investigation is noteworthy because it’s an unusual broadside against what many in the Capitol say is a common way of doing business: Get one federal grant, and then use the profits to hire lobbyists — including former members of Congress — to meet with federal officials, lawmakers and others who can help orchestrate a new, even richer federal grant.” Frank Klotz, whose agency oversees Sandia called the payments “unallowable,” and said he is “committed to…taking preventive measures to ensure this does not recur.” Full story from Jeffrey Smith at the Center for Public Integrity. http://bit.ly/1qdIKb0

--Full report: ”SPECIAL INQUIRY: Alleged Attempts by Sandia National Laboratories to Influence Congress and Federal Officials on a Contract Extension” by the Department of Energy Inspector General. November 2014. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/10XjrO5

Quick Hits:

--“The Last Thing the US Needs are Mobile Nuclear Missiles,” by Tom Collina and Jacob Marx in Defense One. http://bit.ly/14zkC94

--“U.S. Intelligence Chief Describes Mission to Free Detainees in North Korea,” by Brian Knowlton in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1ERxUJ0

--“Trail of nuclear woes began at North Dakota base,” by Robert Burns for the Associated Press. http://1.usa.gov/1ycQBom

--Senator Chris Murphy takes to the Senate floor to speak in favor of Iran diplomacy. Via C-SPAN. http://cs.pn/1vkJpIZ

--“Ignore flap over Obama letter,” by Alireza Nader for CNN. http://cnn.it/1EVbcl8

Events:

--“Project Sapphire 20 Years Later: Cooperative Threat Reduction and Lessons for the Future.” Featuring Andrew Weber, State Department; Laura Holgate, National Security Council; and David Hoffman, author. November 17 from 5:30-7:30 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Located at 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP by email: REP@csis.org.

--“Deal or No Deal: Can We Stop Iran from Making a Nuclear Bomb?” Featuring Joe Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund. November 18 from 5:15-7:00 p.m. at the Cosmopolitan Club, located 122 E. 66th St., New York. Sponsored by Off the Record. Available to members of the Foreign Policy Association for a registration fee of $40. Register online. http://bit.ly/1xPqEwP

--“Weighing the Costs and Benefits of a Prospective U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal." Featuring Michael Doran, Brookings Institute; Hillel Fradkin, Hudson Institute; Ray Takeyh, Council on Foreign Relations; and David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security. November 19 from Noon-1:30 p.m. Located at the Hudson Institute, Sixth Floor, 1015 15th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online. Webcast on the Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/. http://bit.ly/1xesuHm

--“Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

--"Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: the Road Ahead." Featuring Gary Samore, Harvard University; David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security; and Edward Levine, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. November 25 from 10:30 a.m.-Noon in the Saul/Zilkha Rooms at the Brookings Institution. Located at 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://brook.gs/1sYRFsk