Morale, Money and Management Problems Plague U.S. Arsenal

November 10, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Nuclear dysfunction - “The foundation of America's nuclear arsenal is fractured,” writes Robert Burns. “The cracks appear not just in the military forces equipped with nuclear weapons but also in the civilian bureaucracy that controls them, justifies their cost and purpose and plans their future.”

--“It's not clear that the government recognizes the full scope of the problem, which has wormed its way to the core of the nuclear weapons business without disturbing bureaucracies fixated on defending their own turf. Nor has it aroused the public, which may think nuclear weapons are relics of the past, if it thinks about them at all.”

--“This is not mainly about the safety of today's weapons, although the Air Force's nuclear missile corps has suffered failures in discipline, training, morale and leadership over the past two years...Rather, this is about a broader problem: The erosion of the government's ability to manage and sustain its nuclear ‘enterprise,’ the intricate network of machines, brains and organizations that enables America to call itself a nuclear superpower.” Read the full story in the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1srxTVj

Decaying facilities, soaring prices - “The nation's nuclear weapons stockpile has shrunk by 85% since its Cold War peak half a century ago, but the Energy Department is spending nine times more on each weapon that remains. The nuclear arsenal will cost $8.3 billion this fiscal year, up 30% over the last decade. The source of some of those costs: skyrocketing profits for contractors, increased security costs for vulnerable facilities and massive investments in projects that were later canceled or postponed.”

--“Now the Obama administration is moving forward with a plan to modernize the strategic weapons system over the next decade, an effort the Congressional Budget Office estimates will cost $355 billion. That comes as the Pentagon is under pressure to reduce its budget, and outside experts warn that the modernization could reach $1 trillion over the next 30 years.”

--“Simply stated, there is no plan for success with available resources," said Norman Augustine, a former Pentagon and defense industry official. Read the full story by Ralph Vartabedian and W.J. Hennigan in the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1tyaxNZ

See also: Letters to the editor of The New York Times on the nuclear arsenal, from Gardiner L. Tucker, Lisbeth Gronlund and Jay Coghlan. http://nyti.ms/1oCg3nc

Death wears bunny slippers - The U.S. ICBM force has been plagued by scandal - cheating on tests, abusive leadership, and commanders on drunken benders in Moscow. But down in the silos, the missileers have to cope with the hidden hardships of their service - severe boredom, squalid conditions, stifled careers and a lingering feeling that the mission is irrelevant for the 21st century.

--Investigative reporter Josh Harkinson of Mother Jones spent some time with the missileers to look into the disturbances in the force. He asks, “Is it really such a great idea…to have a bunch of disillusioned guys babysitting such terrifying weapons?” Full story here. http://bit.ly/10PEB0W

Tweet - @PSRsecurity: US biggest #nuclear threat not from a Russian missile, but a careless accident @MotherJones http://bit.ly/10PEB0W

New IAEA report - “Iran is making progress on the additional measures it agreed to take in July to roll back parts of its nuclear program, according to the most recent quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While some of these actions are not yet completed, it may be possible for Iran to meet these requirements by the Nov. 24 deadline.”

--“The report also says that Iran is continuing to meet with the IAEA regarding two areas of past activities related to nuclear weapons development, or possible military dimensions (PMDs), but has not yet provided any information or explanations to the agency on these questions. Iran missed an Aug. 25 deadline for giving the agency information about these activities. The IAEA and Iran have continued meeting to work out a way forward on these issues.

--“Top Points: Iran is continuing to implement its commitments under the JPOA; Iran has completed one new action it pledged to take as part of the agreement to extend its negotiations with the P5+1, another action is still in progress and could be completed by Nov. 24; Iran is working with the IAEA to provide answer on the two PMD issues, although Tehran has yet to provide any explanations and information to the agency. Read the full analysis from Kelsey davenport for Arms Control Now here. http://bit.ly/1u6MD0S

Tweet - @ChemiShalev: Biden: I've heard so much malarkey, so let me make it clear: We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Period #JFNAGA

Editors’ note - Early Warning will be offline starting Wednesday the 12th so that the editors can participate in a Ploughshares Fund board meeting. We’ll return to our normal schedule on Monday the 17th.

The final push - “The urgent quest for a breakthrough in talks to rein in Iran’s nuclear capacity led negotiators to meet into the night Sunday with a deadline looming over their heads,” writes Carol Morello for The Washington Post. John ­Kerry, Mohammad Javad Zarif and Catherine Ashton met for three hours in the early afternoon, and more than two additional hours after nightfall. A U.S. official has said that talks will continue on Monday morning.

--“The mere fact they are still at it suggests progress is still possible, as more than a decade of negotiations boil down to the final two weeks before a Nov. 24 deadline. If the date passes without a deal or an extension, an interim pact dies, dealing a potentially fatal blow to the international effort to keep the Islamic republic from building a bomb.” Read the full story here. http://wapo.st/1EkWa62

Within reach - “A comprehensive nuclear agreement is within reach. But, both sides will need to make some tough choices in the coming weeks to reach an agreement by the end of November, particularly on uranium enrichment, which is still a key sticking point in the talks,” said Daryl Kimball to Abdol Hamid Bayati of the Tehran Times.

--Kimball expressed belief that it may be possible to extend the talks beyond the November 24th deadline in order to “resolve remaining technical details on key issues -- as was the case last year after the conclusion of the JPOA. But if the two sides do not reach an agreement in principle by that time on all of the key issues, they must recognize that hardliners in each country may take escalatory actions that narrow the negotiating room in such a way that a long-term deal becomes less likely.” Read the full interview here. http://bit.ly/1xrt7xb

Tweet - @rezamarashi: What was once impossible is now routine. That is what scares the opponents of peace.

“Pen-Paling With the Ayatollah” - “President Barack Obama probably shouldn't be surprised that sending a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made some heads spin,” writes Trita Parsi for Foreign Policy. “That's too bad. Obama's letter to Khamenei just points out the obvious: that Iran and the United States share a common interest in defeating the Islamic State and that real cooperation cannot take place until the nuclear issue is resolved.”

--“The real outrage is that communicating with key players in the Middle East in order to advance U.S. security is still considered outrageous in far too many policy and political circles in Washington. Read the full column here. http://atfp.co/1tKDWYC

History refound - “Waves of declassified photographs and movies from the nation’s push to make Little Boy and Fat Man — the world’s first atom bombs — are exciting [to] a generation less familiar with the nation’s atomic past… ‘They hit geek culture and go viral,’ said Alex Wellerstein, a historian of science at Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, N.J.” Read the full story by William Broad in The New York Times here. http://nyti.ms/11beCBM

Report - “Israeli nuclear weapons, 2014” by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1GI4OiZ

Prisoner release and nukes - “Two Americans returned to the U.S. late Saturday after being freed unexpectedly by North Korea, removing a source of tension between Washington and Pyongyang but leaving open Questions about the North’s motives and whether the action marks a broader shift in policy for the country.”

--“The senior State Department official said that the developments don’t represent an opening in the relationship or a change in the U.S. view of North Korea’s advancing nuclear-weapons program. While the U.S. welcomes the release of Messrs. Bae and Miller, North Korea still must take steps to demonstrate it’s prepared to abide by commitments to denuclearization and improving human rights, the official said.” Full story by Felecia Schwartz and Jonathan Cheng in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1qAmdzH

Quick Hits:

--“U.S. and Russia talk Ukraine, Iran,” reports Carol Morello for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1AF7g9q

--“Iran stalls probe into nuclear weapons research, U.N. report says,” by Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1EuS659

--“US experts disagree on whether Iran violated nuclear deal with powers,” by Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1xCPLAT

Events:

--“The Impact & Implications of Iranian Nuclear Weapons on U.S. & Regional Security” featuring Robert Gallucci, Georgetown University on November 10 from 6:00-8:00 p.m. Sponsored by Johns Hopkins University. Located at the Marriott Residence Inn Pentagon City, 550 Army Navy Drive, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1tyAAc5

--“Prospects for a Nuclear Agreement with Iran," featuring Robert Litwak, Wilson Center; Mark Mazzetti, New York Times; and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal. Nov. 12 3:00-4:30 p.m.,Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online http://bit.ly/1wYWRkI

--“Radioactive Knowledge: State Control of Scientific Information in Post-Soviet Kazakhstan," featuring Magdalena Stawkowski, Stanford University. Nov. 13, 3:30-5:00 p.m. Stanford University, CISAC Conference Room, Encina Hall Central, Second Floor, 616 Serra St., Palo Alto, CA. RSVP online. http://stanford.io/1wkOxf8

--“Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

Dessert:

”Hot” Venison - Deer hunters took to the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge reservation earlier this month as part of an authorized population control effort. As Frank Knox reports for Atomic City Underground, “It was a productive hunt, but... two deer that had to be retained because they had radioactive contamination.”

--“Years ago, when there were a number of radioactive waste ponds near ORNL and other active waste sites, the number of rad deer was much higher. As the cleanup has progressed, the numbers have dropped. There are a couple of areas on the Oak Ridge reservation’s hunting grid, both to the west and one to the south of ORNL, where many of the hot deer have been taken since the hunts began in 1985. In one of those sites, 23 of the total 139 deer killed had to be retained because of radioactivity.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1EkWDFb