New Sanctions Dangerously Counterproductive for Getting an Iran Deal

Self-defeating sanctions - With the November 24 deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran fast approaching, “many members of Congress and others are pushing for tough new sanctions that they believe could compel Iran’s capitulation in the next several weeks.” As Elizabeth Rosenberg and Zachary Goldman argue in The New York Times, “such a move would be self-defeating.”

--“Tougher United States sanctions at this juncture would nearly eliminate Iran’s remaining commerce with Asia and Europe, exacting a significant financial toll on America’s allies in those regions. That could destroy the international coalition that has so successfully isolated Iran, and erode the leverage it derives from presenting a unified front...[New sanctions] would also be unnecessary. The 25 percent decline in oil prices over the last four months, to about $82 a barrel, has already given Iran a stinging taste of how much worse off its economy could be if it fails to reach a deal.”

--“We need a better policy — one that would prepare plans for further sanctions as options, but keep them in reserve until Iran rejects nuclear diplomacy or cheats on a deal. That alone would strengthen the international coalition and maximize leverage with Iran...If a satisfactory deal proves unattainable, further sanctions may eventually become necessary. But at this moment, they would be premature and dangerously counterproductive. An undermining of our own national interests would be among their first consequences.” Read the full column here. http://nyti.ms/1x5Ykoy

Jewish voters favor deal - New polling by J-Street suggests American Jews strongly favor a deal with Iran. According to the poll, 84 percent of American Jews would support "a final agreement that allows nuclear development for civilian energy purposes, places international inspectors at Iranian nuclear facilities, and reduces sanctions on Iran as it meets compliance benchmarks." The full results are available here. http://bit.ly/1uvjDSw

“You can’t ignore Iran” - “As the U.S. struggled in recent years to help prop up Afghanistan’s anemic economy, the American military turned for help to an unlikely partner: Iran.” As Joel Schectman and Dion Nissenbaum report in The Wall Street Journal, this is despite the fact that “the U.S. has no formal relations with Tehran and American companies are restricted from working with Iran by sanctions over the country’s disputed nuclear activities. Nevertheless, a specialized Pentagon task force sought to engage Afghanistan’s western neighbor for major business ventures it was promoting in the country.”

--“‘For Afghanistan, you can’t ignore Iran,’ said Joseph Catalino, head of the Pentagon’s Task Force for Business and Stability Operations…‘They’re a major partner to them in many ways.’ The unusual and quite cooperation with Iran represents one small example of the Obama administration’s tentative efforts to allow for a closer relationship with America’s longtime adversary that would make it easier to work together in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.” Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1qpkBIY

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: IAEA probably won't conclude its inquiry on possibly military dimension of Iran nuke program before Nov 24 deadline. http://ow.ly/DRH2s

NK ups enrichment - “A new plant at North Korea’s main nuclear facility to enrich uranium for nuclear bombs is up and running, according to a South Korean media report. The Joongang Daily reports that infrared cameras used by intelligence agencies have detected heat from spinning gas centrifuges at the plant located at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, north of Pyongyang,” writes Alastair Gale for The Wall Street Journal.

--“The report cites a single unnamed senior South Korean official for the information. South Korea’s defense ministry declined to comment on the veracity of the report. ‘We have to monitor a little longer to see if the new plant actually started producing weapons-grade materials, but it is our assessment that it is in operation,’ the newspaper cites the source as saying.” Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1tHXrmo

Lame duck to-do list - “Lawmakers left Washington for November’s congressional elections without resolving a host of key nuclear weapons policy and budget decisions for fiscal year 2015, which began Oct. 1.,” writes Kingston Reif in the latest issue of Arms Control Today.

--“Congress failed to pass a final National Defense Authorization Act, a sweeping bill that establishes spending ceilings and legislative guidelines for Defense Department programs and the activities conducted by the Energy Department’s semiautonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The initial House and Senate versions of the legislation contain different policy provisions on issues ranging from implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) to nuclear security cooperation with Russia. Congress also did not approve any fiscal year 2015 appropriations bills, opting instead to extend the previous fiscal year’s funding levels until Dec. 11.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1xdOujz

Tweet - @enfein: NGO Letter to Obama Administration: Please Attend Vienna Conference by @womensaction http://bit.ly/1sgEYsD

End the centrifuge obsession - “It’s time for America to rethink its strategy for preventing Iran from getting the Bomb,” writes James Acton in The National Interest. “Negotiations over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program are foundering on the question of how much enrichment capacity it can be permitted…If Tehran goes nuclear, however, it will almost certainly be more surreptitious and build a secret, parallel program dedicated to military ends. The United States should, therefore, aim to negotiate measures to prevent ‘sneak-out’—greater transparency, most importantly—and be prepared to compromise more over centrifuge numbers.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1AikqZN

Why dialogue is an existential threat - “Much is at stake in the negotiations with Iran in Vienna,” writes Robert E. Hunter in a new column for Lobelog. “Yet more is at issue for Israel, and for the Persian Gulf Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, [will] decry whatever might be agreed to in the talks, no matter how objectively good the results would be for everyone’s security… Netanyahu will also do all he can to prevent the relaxation of any of the sanctions imposed on Iran.”

--The reason is simple, although not obvious. “Obama… faces a special problem in reassuring Israel, a problem that goes back decades. When the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty was signed in 1979, the risks of a major Arab attack on Israel sank virtually to zero. So, too, did the risk of an Arab-Israeli conflict escalating to the level of a U.S.-Soviet confrontation. All at once, U.S. and Israeli strategic concerns were no longer obviously linked.” To this day, Israel continues to believe that it “needs a regional enemy shared in common with the United States to ensure Washington’s commitment to its security.” In this way, a deal that removes Iran from the list of common enemies with the United States presents Jerusalem with an existential problem. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1y3zsx1

Quick Hits:

--“White House says it regrets Russia's absence from nuclear summit meetings,” report Doina Chiacu and Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1tI2xij

--“The nuclear weapons dismantlement problem” by Robert Alvarez in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1uvWhvB

--“Busy time for Russian strategic forces,” writes Pavel Podvig for the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces blog. http://bit.ly/10VaRQT

Events:

--"Nuclear Security in the 21st Century," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. 6:00 p.m. Nov. 5. Brown University, Building for Environmental Research and Teaching, Room 130, 85 Waterman St., Providence, RI. http://bit.ly/1x0o5ZX

--“Combatting Illegal Nuclear Trade” featuring Leonard Spector and Egle Murauskaiteat on November 7 from 10:00-11:45 a.m. at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Located at 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1250, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1x0rUed

--"Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, 4:30-6:00 p.m., Nov. 7, University of New Hampshire Law School, 2 White St., Concord, NH. http://bit.ly/10RMbIW

--“The Impact & Implications of Iranian Nuclear Weapons on U.S. & Regional Security” featuring Robert Gallucci, Georgetown University on November 10 from 6:00-8:00 p.m. Sponsored by Johns Hopkins University. Located at the Marriott Residence Inn Pentagon City, 550 Army Navy Drive, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1tyAAc5

--“Prospects for a Nuclear Agreement with Iran," featuring Robert Litwak, Wilson Center; Mark Mazzetti, New York Times; and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal. Nov. 12 3:00-4:30 p.m.,Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online http://bit.ly/1wYWRkI

--“Radioactive Knowledge: State Control of Scientific Information in Post-Soviet Kazakhstan," featuring Magdalena Stawkowski, Stanford University. Nov. 13, 3:30-5:00 p.m. Stanford University, CISAC Conference Room, Encina Hall Central, Second Floor, 616 Serra St., Palo Alto, CA. RSVP online. http://stanford.io/1wkOxf8

--“Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

Dessert:

Rocket roulette - “When an Antares rocket went up in a huge fireball last week at the Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, observers looking to quickly assign blame for the crash pointed their fingers in a surprising direction: Russia. The culprits, they speculated, were the Russian-made NK-33 engines used to power the rockets. Decades old and relics of the Cold War, these obscure machines turned into a political tool. With relations between Moscow and the West at their lowest point since the Cold War's end, of course the Russian bogeyman could be spotted lurking in the shadows of this Virginia disaster.” To learn more about how this happened, read Elias Groll’s full story in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1tI8QCA