Previewing Defense Bill Goals: Arms Control and Nonproliferation

Previewing Defense Bill Goals: Arms Control and Nonproliferation

On the radar: “Common sense priorities”; White House on the Iran deal; Americans on the Iran deal; Evaluating the NK nuclear risk; Bridging gaps in Iran; Nuke cheaters axed; and Happy Halloween.

October 31, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx

New year, no new nukes - “Keeping nuclear and radiological materials out of the hands of terrorists, arms control efforts to reduce the number and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, and ensuring budget discipline at the Pentagon are vital steps toward protecting national security and responsibly stewarding taxpayer dollars,” says a new issue brief from the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. “As the House and Senate Armed Services Committees begin to finalize the FY 2015 NDAA, they should protect these common sense priorities.”

--With respect to specific nuclear weapons and arms control provisions, Congress should “Restore funding for nuclear and radiological material security programs and refrain from placing legislative constraints on nuclear security work with Russia; Allow the Pentagon to determine the most cost-effective method for maintaining Minuteman III ICBM silos; Fully fund implementation of the New START treaty; Require an annual report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the cost of modernizing the U.S. nuclear stockpile and complex; and Allow U.S. negotiators the freedom to negotiate a tough and verifiable nuclear agreement with Iran.” Read the full brief here. http://bit.ly/1rXdpnW

A big deal - “A lasting nuclear deal with Iran is a White House priority on par with Obama's signature health care law, deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes recently told a meeting of progressive allies,” reports Justin Sink in The Hill.

--“Bottom line is, this is the best opportunity we’ve had to resolve the Iranian issue diplomatically, certainly since President Obama came to office, and probably since the beginning of the Iraq war,” Rhodes said. “So no small opportunity, it’s a big deal. This is probably the biggest thing President Obama will do in his second term on foreign policy. This is healthcare for us, just to put it in context.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1q8mA4c

Public support for a deal - “Despite these divergent views among policymakers, there is a clear majority in the American public and that of their Iranian counterparts that support a deal as the best option to solve this impasse.” As Jonah Aboni writes in Arms Control Now, “Polls conducted to sample the views of the American and Iranian publics about the on-going negotiations, show clearly that the citizens of the two countries are looking for a long-term solution to the Iranian nuclear puzzle.”

--“The results of the polls conducted by the Centre for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland indicate that 61 percent of Americans recommended continuing to pursue negotiations on a long-term agreement with Iran that limits their enrichment of uranium while putting in place the necessary checks and balances to ensure Tehran adheres to the agreement...A solid majority of Iranians, 79 percent, indicate their willingness to support a deal with Iran providing reassurance never to produce nuclear weapons.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1s0zAK3

Tweet - @MattDuss: As you read hawks' criticism of nuke deal, remember there's no conceivable deal that could help Iran nearly as much as removing Saddam did.

Avoiding miscalculation - “A senior U.S. general claimed last week that North Korea has the expertise to build a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a ballistic missile – although he added that there was no evidence that it had actually done so.” So how do we evaluate the real danger of North Korea’s nukes?

--According to Ploughshares Fund’s Philip Yun, “The greatest danger comes from miscalculation. Last year we saw an escalating ‘tit-for-tat’ on the Korean peninsula, culminating in super-heated DPRK threats of nuclear annihilation and the U.S. sending of nuclear capable B-2 and B-52 bombers. In an environment where deadly skirmishes between the two Koreas are commonplace, as are potentially fatal incidents along the DMZ, an altercation or an accident (one that would have been relatively minor in prior years) has a small, but real chance of spinning out of control.”

--“There is a near zero chance of a premeditated North Korean nuclear attack,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. But, “serious risk of miscalculations by either side could increase over time if leaders in Seoul make the mistake of trying to develop their own independent nuclear weapons capability – which is all the more reason to renew efforts to freeze, and then later reverse, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes.” Read the story in The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1DD7fPl

“Oranger carrots, thornier sticks” - “With no obvious progress in tackling North Korea’s nuclear program in the past few years, it’s reasonable to ask what the U.S. approach to the issue is. According to the point man on the issue, it’s ‘oranger carrots and thornier sticks.’ Speaking in Seoul on Thursday ahead of visits to Beijing and Tokyo, Sydney Seiler, the U.S. envoy on the North Korean nuclear issue, said that Washington’s goal is to sharpen the choices facing Pyongyang as it seeks economic development and security guarantees,” writes Alastair Gale for The Wall Street Journal.

--Pyongyang must be convinced that only denuclearization “‘brings true security, true peace, true prosperity,’ Mr. Seiler told analysts and journalists at a meeting [in Seoul]. While unwelcome, North Korea’s last nuclear bomb test in February 2013 helped strengthen a consensus with China opposing North Korea’s nuclear development, Mr. Seiler said. Coordination with Beijing on the North Korean nuclear issue was ‘strong and solid.’” Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1wMI9eG

A mediator in Tehran? - “An intriguing figure is gaining prominence in the Iranian government just as...nuclear talks with the West move toward a Nov. 24 deadline,” writes David Ignatius in The Washington Post. The newly prominent official is Ali Shamkhani and his “rise is noteworthy because he appears to bridge the radical and moderate camps at a time when opinion in Iran is divided about a nuclear deal.” As one European intelligence official said, Shamkhani could be the “honest broker” President Rouhani and Supreme Leader Khamenei need. Read the full column here. linkhttp://wapo.st/1s0lR5Ka>

Tweet - @SteveCollechi: .@BishopPates & I cited - US Catholic Bishops: Consider #Iran’s #Nuclear Weapons Fatwa http://bit.ly/1wQkopH via @LobeLog

Scandal claims 15 more- The cheating scandal among missile launch crews at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana appears to be drawing to a close. “Of the airmen involved in the cheating investigation...most of them are now back on the job,” reports Jenn Rowell for the Great Falls Tribune. In March, nine officers and the base commander resigned or were relieved. As a result of the subsequent investigation, discharge procedures have been initiated for an additional 15 officers. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/13oWvt2

Quick Hits:

--“Nuclear waste dump may reopen in 2016, two years after accidents,” reports Ralph Vartabedian for the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1ucGr9y

--“Don't overlook Iranian civil society in nuclear talks,” by Ahmad Medadi in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1yMbibi

--“Raytheon wins $149 million deal to source Iron Dome parts,” via Reuters. http://reut.rs/1rL07i8

--Text of the Holy See’s UNGA statement is now online. http://bit.ly/13oWeGm

Events:

--"Charting the Navy’s Future in a Changing Maritime Domain," featuring Adm. Jonathan Greenert, Chief of Naval Operations. Nov 4. 9:00-10:00 a.m. at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1ty1UsI

--"Prospects for a Nuclear Agreement with Iran," featuring Robert Litwak, Wilson Center; Mark Mazzetti, New York Times; and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal. Nov. 12 3:00-4:30 p.m.,Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington.

--"Radioactive Knowledge: State Control of Scientific Information in Post-Soviet Kazakhstan," featuring Magdalena Stawkowski, Stanford University. Nov. 13, 3:30-5:00 p.m. Stanford University, CISAC Conference Room, Encina Hall Central, Second Floor, 616 Serra St., Palo Alto, CA. RSVP online. http://stanford.io/1wkOxf8

--"Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--Friends Committee on National Legislation (Quakers), annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A

Dessert:

Happy Halloween - The story of Iran negotiations, as told by your favorite Halloween candies and John McCauley of Truman National Security Project. http://bit.ly/1ud30ep