Iran: Perceptions, Politics and a Nuclear Deal

October 30, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Understanding Iran - With less than a month to go before the deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran, there are apparent gaps and political challenges to securing an agreement. As The Economist argues, “the gap would be easier to close if Iran and America trusted each other. One reason why the relationship is so poisonous is that popular Western views of Iran are out of date to the point of caricature. A better understanding of the country would help the talks reach a comprehensive settlement—or, at least, avoid a catastrophic collapse.”

--The Economist wades into the complexities of Iranian domestic politics around a nuclear deal and draws a few conclusions. “For a start, on balance Iran will act pragmatically, in what it sees as its own interests, rather than out of a messianic desire to pull down the world order, and is therefore worth talking to. Secondly, that power in Iran moves between factions, just as in America, so any deal must be future-proofed against the day when a hardliner returns to the presidency. And thirdly—and most important—that the world has time on its side.” Read the full article in the latest edition The Economist. http://econ.st/1nT0Z3Y

--The above article is the cover story for this week’s Economist. (pic) http://bit.ly/1tl3bST

Scenarios for success - The gap to achieving an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program might seem greater than it is, writes the editorial board of The Economist. “There are compromise proposals that might work if there was greater mutual trust.” One, devised by the Arms Control Association and the International Crisis Group, would entail Iran cutting half of its enrichment capacity over a three year period, pushing back the country’s breakout period to between nine and twelve months. Iran would then be allowed to “build up its capacity roughly back to current levels, while nuclear inspectors satisfied themselves that the programme was entirely peaceful.”

--“Such a deal… would be far from humiliating for Iran, while making it a lot harder and riskier than it is now for the country to attempt to breakout (or “sneakout” through a clandestine facility).The much likelier alternative to a comprehensive deal this month is not a collapse of diplomacy, carrying the risk of escalatory sanctions and accelerated centrifuge production, but another extension of talks. There could even be a new interim agreement, locking in some gains, such as conversion of the Arak reactor to a design producing less plutonium, in exchange for further minor sanctions relief. It is not in anyone’s interests to walk away from the table just yet.” Read the full story here. http://econ.st/1wgCaAU

Radioactive mess - The New Mexico facility that reprocesses the byproducts of nuclear warhead production has been shut down since an explosion in early February. Though the actual damage from accident was minor, the long term repercussions are anything but. As The New York Times reports, “The reaction...came as a blow to the country’s efforts to clean up old nuclear weapons manufacturing sites and has forced the government to take extraordinary measures to prevent a repetition. The reopening of the waste repository will stretch into next year and cost at least $551 million.”

--“The lapse reflects a problem that has plagued the weapons complex for years — radioactive materials should not be mixed with organic chemicals because the radiation generates explosive gases. It raises questions about the Energy Department’s ability to apply what it has learned over decades of painstaking, mistake-ridden stewardship of the leftovers of nuclear bomb manufacture...Documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act suggest that the Energy Department does not know what is in many of the waste containers it has filled over the years.”

--“The February leak has also cast doubt on the Energy Department’s safety calculations. Robert Alvarez, a nuclear waste expert and a former special assistant to the energy secretary, said that a safety analysis conducted before the repository opened predicted one such incident every 200,000 years; the mine has been open for 15 years.” Read the full story by Matthew Wald here. http://nyti.ms/1tTuDbE

Tweet - @WWATMD: #OTD, 1953: Eisenhower approves top secret document NSC Paper No. 162/2: nuclear weapons must be maintained & expanded to counter communism.

Can’t stand it, know you planned it - “Iranian authorities have foiled a sabotage attempt involving tanks used for the transportation of heavy water, a key component in nuclear reactors, an Iranian newspaper reported on Thursday.” Full story by Nasser Karimi for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1sKcTJc

Ouch - “Iran’s revenue from crude sales, the OPEC member’s biggest export, dropped 30 percent because of the recent decline in global oil prices, according to President Hassan Rouhani. ‘International conditions are such that the country’s main source of income, i.e. oil revenues, has been cut by some 30 percent,’ Rouhani said in remarks to parliament published yesterday on Shana, the Oil Ministry’s news website. ‘We have to deal with the new conditions and the global economic conditions.’”

--“The decline in crude prices and a looming Nov. 24 deadline for a nuclear accord with the U.S. and other world powers are raising pressure on Rouhani, elected last year on a platform to end Iran’s isolation and revive the economy.” Anthony DiPaola and Golnar Motevalli have the full story for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/13e290Z

Religious delegation - “U.S. Catholic bishops are urging negotiators not to underestimate the power of fatwas by Islamic leaders banning atomic weapons,” writes Jo Biddle for AFP. In April a delegation from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) travelled Iran to meet with top Shiite leaders in a bid to bridge gaps between Iran and the West. "’Iranians feel profoundly misunderstood by America and the West,’ said Bishop Richard Pates, the chairman of the USCCB's committee on international justice and peace, speaking publicly about the trip on Wednesday.”

--“Iranian leaders say Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons in 2003 and has reiterated it several times since...In their talks, the Irani leaders assured the delegation that nuclear weapons "are immoral because of their indiscriminate nature and their powerful force of destroying all types of innocent communities," said Pates. Read the full story here. http://yhoo.it/1p6fvX0

In Russia, jets scramble you - “Russia's just had a busy day. In just 24 hours, the country run by Local Strongman Vladimir Putin sent 19 planes to probe NATO borders, and if that enormous blip on international radar screens wasn't enough, they just test-fired a nuclear-capable inter-continental ballistic missile...The cherry on top, of course, was the Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile test, sending it flying from one of Russia's Borei-class subs in the icy Barents Sea towards the Kamchatka peninsula. Missile tests aren't out of the ordinary, especially for the unreliable Bulava, and this one was announced a few days in advance.”

--“It's unclear what [irritated] Putin so much as to have him start flexing what little (as compared to NATO) muscle he has, but we should remember it's not anything new. As the Atlantic Council notes, these four intercepts bring the total number of incidents with Russia so far in 2014 up to over 100, which is three times more than in all of 2013.” Read Michael Ballaban’s full story for Foxtrot Alpha here. http://bit.ly/103Hxqp

Fuel cycle report - “Security Implications of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle,” a report of the Monterey Eminent Persons Group (pdf) http://bit.ly/1tlYt5R

--See also: “Japan should be a good example of nuclear nonproliferation,” write Morton Halperin and Yoriko Kawaguchi for Japan’s Kyodo News. http://bit.ly/10Bw5TD

Tweet - @wellerstein: White House press release on Tsar Bomba, 53 years ago today: "There is no mystery about producing a 50 megaton bomb." http://bit.ly/1DCg4ZN

Quick Hits:

--“Russia successfully test-fires new Navy Bulava ICBM,” via the Associated Press. http://bit.ly/1wHyMNv

--“Raytheon links with Poland's WB Electronics in missile shield bid,” reports Adrian Krajewski in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1zNjYm4

--“How Much is Iran’s Economy Recovering?” by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani for Lobe Log. http://bit.ly/1wIOwzH

--“Reagan, Gorbachev and Reykjavik” by Michael Kreppon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1tFzDPB

Events:

--“A nuclear deal with Iran? Weighing the possibilities,” featuring David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thursday, October 30 from 2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. at AEI located on the 12th floor of 1150 17th Street, Washington, DC, 20036. Register online http://bit.ly/1yZauTe

--"Challenges in Nuclear Verification: The IAEA’s Role on the Iranian Nuclear Issue," Featuring Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA. Friday October 31 from 10:30 a.m. - 12:00p.m. Located at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uKAOtu

--"Charting the Navy’s Future in a Changing Maritime Domain," featuring Adm. Jonathan Greenert, Chief of Naval Operations. Nov 4. 9:00-10:00 a.m. at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1ty1UsI

--"Prospects for a Nuclear Agreement with Iran," featuring Robert Litwak, Wilson Center; Mark Mazzetti, New York Times; and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal. Nov. 12 3:00-4:30 p.m.,Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington.

--"Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw