”Huge” Nuclear Weapons Bill is Coming Due

October 29, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Unaffordable Arsenal - Aging weapons pose a “challenge across the entire U.S. nuclear weapons complex,” writes David Alexander for Reuters. “Warheads, bombs, submarines, missiles and bomber aircraft are all approaching the end of their service. Over the next 30 years, Washington will have to overhaul or replace much of its nuclear arsenal, an effort experts say could cost as much as a trillion dollars. The question is what is truly indispensable and how to pay for it.”

--“‘The bill is coming due, and it’s a huge bill,’ said Frank Klotz, head of National Nuclear Security Administration, the Department of Energy agency that maintains the weapons. ‘’The question we have to ask ourselves as a nation is: ‘Is this something which we need to invest in?’'”

--“The congressionally mandated National Defense Panel put it bluntly in a July review of the Pentagon’s defense plans, saying the effort to build a new triad of nuclear bombers, missiles and submarines was ‘unaffordable’ under present budget constraints. With a 2011 legislation setting forth a decade of budget spending cuts in place, analysts say the White House will ultimately have to delay some systems, trim others or find more money. Most likely it will have to do all three.”

--“The current plans would perpetuate a nuclear arsenal size and structure that clearly exceeds our deterrence requirements as defined by the president,” said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1xEarbp

Cited above:

--“Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2014 to 2023,” by the Congressional Budget Office: (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1thelrD

--“Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future,” The National Defense Panel Review of the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review” (pdf) http://bit.ly/1of0oTE

--“The Unaffordable Arsenal; Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile” from the Arms Control Association (pdf) http://bit.ly/1nPUmiQ

Subs escape budget pressure - “The Navy's top shipbuilding modernization priority, the Ohio-class replacement ballistic missile submarine, will not be impacted by the continuing resolution passed by Congress because the service convinced Pentagon officials of the importance of the program,” reports Lee Hudson of Inside Defense. “The Ohio-class replacement submarine is U.S. Strategic Command's No. 1 modernization priority because it will carry about 85 percent of the U.S.' operationally deployed nuclear warheads,” said Rear Adm. David Johnson, program executive officer for submarines. Full story here, wedged behind a paywall. http://bit.ly/1thgm7a

Tweet - @Cirincione: My call for cutting obsolete #nuclear weapons @latimes rattled some cold warriors. Read their angry letters: http://lat.ms/1nPXYBt

What could be - Imagine “It is the year 2015,” writes Suzanne DiMaggio in Foreign Policy. “Since a final agreement on Iran's nuclear program was reached some months ago...the IAEA has continued to verify that Iran is complying with its commitments. This has enabled Washington to directly engage Tehran on two strategic priorities that they both hold in common -- the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and stabilizing the unity government in Afghanistan.”

--“The United States and Iran have found common cause in maintaining the unity of Iraq...The post-nuclear deal environment has made it possible to test Iran's willingness to play a constructive role in advancing a political solution in Syria...The nuclear deal, combined with a smaller American troop presence in Afghanistan, has allowed Tehran to respond positively to U.S. requests for direct talks on Afghanistan...The United States is moving away from pressuring Pakistan to abandon its long-stymied pipeline project with Iran.”

--“Back to the present: The above scenarios are imagined, of course. But they are well within the realm of possibility should the major powers and Iran succeed in concluding a nuclear deal. Verifiably preventing a nuclear-armed Iran and avoiding a military confrontation over its nuclear program are vitally important goals. Unlocking a channel for broader strategic dialogue between the United States and Iran on issues where both have compelling common interests would also be an enormous achievement.” Read the full column here. http://atfp.co/ZYh39h

Game changer? - “For more than a year, President Hassan Rouhani has been dangling the prospect of a bright economic future before the middle classes that elected him, promising to negotiate a deal with the West to limit Iran’s nuclear program and in that way end the sanctions hobbling the Iranian economy.”

--However, “American and European officials say they think they have some new leverage: falling oil prices that are adding to Iran’s pain at a time when its oil revenue has dropped by more than half because of sanctions. With oil prices projected to fall even further, the oil-dependent government of Iran faces growing pressure to settle the nuclear standoff,” reports Thomas Erdbrink reports in The New York Times. Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1FVi6Iw

Détente sets in - “The Obama administration and Iran, engaged in direct nuclear negotiations and facing a common threat from Islamic State militants, have moved into an effective state of détente over the past year, according to senior U.S. and Arab officials,” write Jay Solomon and Maria Abi-Habib in The Wall Street Journal.

--“The shift could drastically alter the balance of power in the region...Over the past decade, Washington and Tehran have engaged in fierce battles for influence and power in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Afghanistan… But recent months have ushered in a change as the two countries have grown into alignment on a spectrum of causes, chief among them promoting peaceful political transitions in Baghdad and Kabul and pursuing military operations against Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria, according to these officials.” Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1FUQvHo

Calling Bibi’s bluff - “The Crisis in the U.S.-Israel Relationship is Officially Here,” proclaims The Atlantic. As Jeffrey Goldberg writes, “The fault for this breakdown in relations can be assigned in good part to the junior partner in the relationship, Netanyahu...[who] has ‘written off’ the Obama administration, and plans to speak directly to Congress and to the American people should an Iran nuclear deal be reached.”

--But for all his bluster, administration officials question Netanyahu’s willingness to make good on his threats toward Iran, calling him a “coward” on the issue. As Goldberg writes, “In 2010, and again in 2012, administration officials were convinced that Netanyahu and his then-defense minister, the cowboyish ex-commando Ehud Barak, were readying a strike on Iran...The belief that Netanyahu’s threat to strike is now an empty one has given U.S. officials room to breathe in their ongoing negotiations with Iran.”

--“What does all this unhappiness mean for the near future? For one thing, it means that Netanyahu—who has preemptively 'written off' the Obama administration—will almost certainly have a harder time than usual making his case against a potentially weak Iran nuclear deal, once he realizes that writing off the administration was an unwise thing to do.” Read the full column here. http://theatln.tc/1zFrwqS

Cold warriors’ pleas unanswered - “Rocky Flats, the nation's Cold War nuclear weapons plant just off Highway 93 between Golden and Boulder, no longer stands. But many of the former workers who believe they became ill because of exposure to radiation and toxic materials at the site are still struggling to receive federal benefits.” According to a new investigation by Rocky Mountain PBS, “More than 4,600 Rocky Flats workers or their survivors have applied to a federal compensation and health coverage program. Fewer than half have been approved.”

--“From 1952 until 1989, Rocky Flats workers used plutonium to build nuclear weapons triggers, called ‘pits.’ Those pits remain at the heart of America's arsenal of nuclear weapons. Many cold warriors paid dearly for the work that exposed them to the deadly carcinogens. The government belatedly recognized the cause-and-effect suffering, establishing the claims program that remains contentious for the former workers and their families.” Much more, including the full documentary, here. http://bit.ly/1rzNBx2

Quick Hits:

--“The U.S.-Iran non-alliance alliance against Islamic State,” by Aki Peritz and Faris Alikhan in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1tD4ZX3

--“Here's How The U.S. Reacted To China's First Nuclear Test 50 Years Ago,” by Armin Rosen in Business Insider. http://read.bi/10yAjvg

--“Will the World Blame Iran if Nuclear Talks Fail?” asks Amb. Peter Jenkins in a column for Lobelog. http://bit.ly/1tMvkDy

--“Russia's Great-Power Problem,” by Dmitri Trenin for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1wI06OZ

--“MDA Drops Plans For GMD Intercept Test, Eyes CE-II Flight Only In FY-15,” reports Jason Sherman for Inside Defense. (paywall) http://bit.ly/ZZRa9w

--“Federal official says Y-12 ‘is where the magic happens,’” by Frank Munger in the Knoxville News Sentinel. http://bit.ly/1pYaPNS

Events:

--"US-Iranian Religious Leaders’ Dialogue: The Relevance of Moral Questions Related to Nuclear Weapons." Featuring John Steinbruner of the University of Maryland; Richard Pates from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops; and Stephen Colecchi from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. Wednesday October 29, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Sponsored by Arms Control Association. located at the Carnegie Endowment, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1rrAePi

--“A nuclear deal with Iran? Weighing the possibilities,” featuring David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thursday, October 30 from 2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. at AEI located on the 12th floor of 1150 17th Street, Washington, DC, 20036. Register online http://bit.ly/1yZauTe

--"Challenges in Nuclear Verification: The IAEA’s Role on the Iranian Nuclear Issue," Featuring Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA. Friday October 31 from 10:30 a.m. - 12:00p.m. Located at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uKAOtu

--"Charting the Navy’s Future in a Changing Maritime Domain," featuring Adm. Jonathan Greenert, Chief of Naval Operations. Nov 4. 9:00-10:00 a.m. at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1ty1UsI

--"Prospects for a Nuclear Agreement with Iran," featuring Robert Litwak, Wilson Center; Mark Mazzetti, New York Times; and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal. Nov. 12 3:00-4:30 p.m.,Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington.

--"Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw