How to Save $70 Billion on Nukes Without Really Trying

October 21, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Bloated budget - “The United States currently plans to spend some $355 billion to maintain and rebuild its Cold War-era nuclear arsenal over the next decade (and $1 trillion over the next 30 years), even as the overall U.S. defense budget is declining and U.S. military planners and the president have determined that the United States can deter nuclear threats against the United States and its allies with far fewer nuclear weapons,” writes Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund Director of Policy, in a new report for the Arms Control Association.

--The report, entitled “The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile”, argues that “the increasingly high cost of nuclear weapons, combined with shrinking budgets and stockpiles, should compel the executive branch, Congress, and the American public to rethink current plans to rebuild U.S. nuclear forces in the years ahead.”

--“The Unaffordable Arsenal outlines common sense ways to save roughly $70 billion over the next decade across all three legs of the triad by scaling-back, delaying, and/or deferring expensive new delivery systems and by taking a more disciplined, straightforward approach to nuclear warhead life-extensions and refurbishments.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1t5j14I

--See also: “Broken budgets? Make a withdrawal from the Nuclear ATM” by Jacob Marx of Ploughshares Fund. http://bit.ly/1puSU0W

Now or never - “Like it or not, the calendar of voting — here and in Iran — is driving the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. A first, easy prediction: Don’t expect progress in the few days that remain until America’s Election Day. But then the tempo could ratchet up quickly. And it had better, if we are to expect a nuclear deal at all,” writes Vali Nasr in The New York Times.

--Nasr notes that there is a narrow window of opportunity for a nuclear deal before U.S. and Iranian elections, but hardliners in both countries would be strengthened by drawn out or failed negotiations. “While the United States and its allies must achieve their core goals — effectively and dependably blocking Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb — in any compromises they make, they need to remember, too, that getting a deal itself could be a game-changer in Iranian politics. The bet they should be making is on offering one while they still can,” writes Nasr.

--“The Iranian hard-liners are betting that a turn to the right in America would sink the talks, and that an end to talks would hand them a long-term victory in Iran. So even if Congress turns further rightward, we need to quicken the negotiations and achieve a deal as soon as possible. The longer it takes, the more likely it is that politics here and in Iran will ultimately coalesce to sink any deal at all.” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/1rpPg8e

Additional JPOA compliance - “Iran is taking further action to comply with an interim nuclear agreement with six world powers, a monthly U.N. atomic agency report showed, a finding the West may see as positive ahead of a November deadline for clinching a long-term deal,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--The report found that Iran “had diluted more than 4,100 kg of uranium enriched to a fissile concentration of up to 2 percent down to the level of natural uranium. This was one of the additional steps Iran agreed to undertake when the six-month accord that took effect early this year was extended by four months in July.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1zj8Vk7

Tweet - @PSRsecurity: #India and #Pakistan just one of the many reasons why we need to work to ban #nuclear weapons. via @thedailybeast http://thebea.st/1vHtWl1

Iran Primer:

--“Iran Nuke Program 1: ABCs of Issues” http://bit.ly/10igeJw

--“Iran Nuke Program 2: ABCs of Sites” http://bit.ly/1px0dFA

--“Iran Nuke Program 3: ABCs from Khamenei” http://bit.ly/1zjbToJ

Special, nuclear relationship - The UK has renewed its nuclear weapons agreement with the United States behind closed doors, writes Richard-Norton Taylor for The Guardian. “The amendments were made to the Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA) first signed in 1958, which, according to the government, enables the UK and the US ‘nuclear warhead communities to collaborate on all aspects of nuclear deterrence including nuclear warhead design and manufacture.’"

--“The amendments are for the most part arcane and their significance cannot be understood in the absence of information which is kept secret. The MDA does not have to be debated or voted on in parliament. Though the agreement is incorporated in US law, it has no legal status in Britain. Yet the matters covered by the treaty, which is renewed only at 10 year intervals, are hugely important. Successive British governments have made clear a proper debate on the issues involved would not be welcome.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1sH5HAY

Tweet - @StephenUCS: Like maps? Interested in #nuclear weapons? UCS Nuclear Weapons Complex Map is you! Download the Google Earth KML file http://bit.ly/10iobP1

Positioning - Iran is has offered Western negotiators a compromise on the timeline for sanctions relief, saying “they are no longer demanding a total end to economic sanctions in return for curbing their nuclear program and would accept initially lifting just the latest, most damaging, sanctions,” report Parisa Hafezi and Louis Charbonneau for Reuters. “Western officials dismiss the proposal as nothing new and say the Iranians have always known that the sanctions could only end gradually - with each measure being suspended and later terminated only after Iranian compliance had been proven.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1ydPCo0

Numbers game - “The Obama administration has sweetened its offer to Iran in ongoing nuclear negotiations, saying it might accept Tehran operating 4,000 centrifuges, up from the previous 1,300, according to a semiofficial Iranian news agency,” report Paul Richter and Ramin Mostaghim for the Los Angeles Times. Reader should take such news from Iranian media outlets with grains of salt, but can also read the story here. http://lat.ms/1t92qM7

Hanford report - “The U.S. Department of Energy's inspector general on Monday said it could not determine if a whistleblower on the Hanford Nuclear Reservation was fired for raising safety concerns because two contractors failed to provide all the documents needed in the investigation. Donna Busche was fired in February after raising questions about the safety of the unfinished Waste Treatment Plant at Hanford, the nation's most polluted nuclear site.”

--According to the IG’s report, "there was a fundamental conflict between the need of the Office of the Inspector General to have unfettered access to information and the desire of the two contractors to protect their legal interests in an upcoming lawsuit.” In a statement released through her attorneys, Busche said "This is exactly what we expected from URS and Bechtel. These contractors have sent a clear message to any potential whistleblower at the Hanford complex; no one, including DOE, is more powerful that we are." Nicholas K. Geranios has the full story for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1wlQO7M

Quick Hits -

--“USAF Strike Chief Urges B-52 Engine Replacement,” by Aaron Mehta in Defense News. http://bit.ly/1wr6Wqq

Events:

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Oct. 21, 1:30-2:30 p.m., Weber State University, Elizabeth Hall, Room 229, Ogden, UT.” http://bit.ly/ZY1r6B

--"Preventing Nuclear Terrorism," featuring Huban Gowadia, Department of Homeland Security. 5:30-7:00 p.m., Oct. 21, Baker Center, Toyota Auditorium, University of Tennessee-Knoxville, 1640 Cumberland Ave., Knoxville, TN. Register online. http://conta.cc/1wstEhL

--"The Role of Nuclear Triad," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, U.S. Force Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration Office. Oct. 21, 4:10-5:30 p.m., Harvard University, Belfer Center Library, Littauer 369, Cambridge, MA. RSVP by email. http://bit.ly/1nxUp2L

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. 1:00-2:00 p.m., Oct. 22, University of Utah, Spencer Hall, Hinckely Caucus Room, 260 Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City. http://bit.ly/1w0diMc

--"Iran And The Arab World After The Nuclear Deadline: Possible Scenarios,” featuring Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Syracuse University, Abbas Kadhim, SAIS, and Geneive Abdo, Stimson Center. Oct. 23, 9:30-11:00am., The Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20036. http://bit.ly/1oeinAG

--"The Building Blocks Approach for a World without Nuclear Weapons," featuring Hiro Yamamoto, Japanese ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament; Theo Peters, Dutch Foreign Ministry; John Burroughs, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy; and Alyn Ware, Parliamentarians for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. Sponsored by Japan, Netherlands and the Global Security Institute. Oct. 22 1:15-2:30 p.m. United Nations, Conference Room 6. RSVP by email.http://bit.ly/1yUXL3S

--"After the Scottish Referendum: What are the Future Transatlantic Security Implications?," featuring Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, and Franklin Miller, Scowcroft Group. Oct. 23, 10:00-11:30 a.m., Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Cxle8Q

--"Current and Future Challenges for Nuclear Security, Nonproliferation and Verification," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Oct. 23, 12:45-1:45 p.m., MIT 24-213, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Details here. http://bit.ly/124iwwv

--"Future Prospects for U.S.-Russian Arms Control," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Oct. 23, 2:00-3:30 p.m., 54-100, Green Building, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Details here. http://bit.ly/1whXnJe

--“EU-Coordinated P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations with Iran,” featuring Wendy Sherman, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Sponsored by Syracuse University and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Oct. 23, 5:00 p.m., at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.http://bit.ly/1r8qMkL

--“Debate: Should the United States Cut its Nuclear Arsenal?” Featuring Adam Mount, Council on Foreign Relations; Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund; Matthew Kroenig, Georgetown University; and Thomas Moore, Wilson Center. Oct. 23, 6:00-8:00 p.m., George Washington University, Room B17, 1957 E St. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1w0dQSi

--"Preventing Nuclear Terrorism Globally: Results and Remaining Challenges," featuring Deepti Choubey. Oct. 29, 9:00-11:00 a.m. at the Foreign Policy Institute,1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Room 500, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1yaVfn3