Chipping Away at Obstacles to a Final Nuclear Deal

Progress - “Iran's foreign minister said on Thursday that progress was made in ‘very difficult’ nuclear talks with top U.S. and EU diplomats this week when possible solutions were discussed, sources who attended his briefing for Iranian media said…‘It was very difficult, serious and intensive...but instead of focusing on problems, we discussed solutions as well’,” Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif is reported as saying. “There was progress in all the fields.”

--“A senior U.S. official late on Wednesday also said some progress was made but that much work remained…[and] said gaps in negotiating positions would have to be narrowed in a way that ‘ensures that all of the pathways for fissile material for a nuclear weapon are shut down.’” Read the full report from Parisa Hafezi and Fredrik Dahl in Reuters. http://reut.rs/Zw5KVG

--See also: “U.S. sees some progress in Iran nuclear talks, still aims for November deal” by Matt Spetalnick and Parisa Hafezi for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1Cmh9UV

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: A senior U.S. official in Vienna remains positive, still hopes to reach a deal by the November 24 deadline. http://t.co/zs6gKs5kWT

Tweet - @barbaraslavin1: senior @StateDept official on #Iran talks: not 'going to be a big breakthrough; that's not how this ...works... you're just chipping away.

Unintended legacy - “The Obama administration so far has had the least effect on the size of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile of any of the post-Cold War presidencies,” writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. “In fact, in terms of warhead numbers, the Obama administration so far has cut the least warheads from the stockpile of any administration ever.”

--The Obama administration still has the chance to achieve significant reductions by continuing the New START Treaty early, offloading excess Trident II SLBMs, and retiring excess W76. “Achieving some or all of these reductions would free up significant resources more urgently needed for maintaining and modernizing non-nuclear forces. The excess nuclear forces provide no discernible benefits to day-to-day national security needs and the remaining forces would still be more than adequate to deter and defeat potential adversaries – even a more assertive Russia.” http://bit.ly/1zdfdC3

Debbie downers - As the November 24 deadline for reaching a deal on Iran’s nuclear program looms, the pessimistic rhetoric from the Iranian and US opposition to an agreement is increasing. However, as Reza Marashi writes in the Huffington Post, there is “a stark difference between this rhetoric and reality...Thousands of miles away from the spin factories in Washington and Tehran, negotiators are working diligently to seal the deal. To hear the Europeans tell it, a deal is within reach.”

--Marashi, who is in Vienna observing the current round of negotiations writes, "’[Russian foreign minister] Lavrov was telling the truth. The deal is 95 percent done, but the remaining 5 percent is the most difficult details,’ a Western diplomat told me. ‘When you see the various drafts of the agreement we're putting together, it's obvious we've come a long way -- further than many thought possible. Relatively speaking, very little disputed language remains in brackets.’" Read the full column here. http://huff.to/1xTAZWN

Sanctions relief - “With Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry set to meet in Vienna and the November 24 deadline to the P5+1 and Iran nuclear talks in sight, the White House's ability to provide Iran with significant sanctions relief early in a nuclear deal remains unclear,” writes Tyler Cullis in an op-ed for CNN. “At the same time, any perceived failure by the U.S. to deliver could complicate, if not poison, what will already be a tenuous post-deal period.”

--“The Obama administration has courageously pursued the diplomatic path with Iran. That political courage cannot have been in vain. If, as a senior Obama administration official said this week, ‘the next two years will be transformative in...[the U.S.-]Iran relations...,’ then the White House needs to first ensure that it upholds the U.S.'s end of a nuclear bargain. That means not just being prepared to offer Iran sanctions relief, but making sure that the relief sticks and its benefits inure to Iran and its people. There is no better way, after all, to avoid the outcome a nuclear Iran.” Read the full column here. http://cnn.it/1yH4wGA

Myths and Realities - “Between 2006 and 2010, the UN Security Council has passed six resolutions related to Iran’s nuclear program. As Iran negotiates with the P5+1 misconceptions abound about what the UN Security Council resolutions require Iran to do and how the resolutions impact conditions in a final nuclear deal,” writes Kelsey Davenport for Arms Control Now. Principally, The UN Security Council resolutions do not require Iran to stop uranium enrichment or dismantle the heavy-water reactor at Arak.

--“The UNSC resolutions were never intended to prevent an Iranian nuclear program in the future in compliance with the conditions of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty...The UNSC sanctions were never intended to be permanent – rather the sanctions were intended to be a tool to spur Iran to cooperate with the IAEA’s investigation and negotiate an agreement on Tehran’s future nuclear program with the international community. Sanctions relief should come as Iran continues to work with the IAEA to complete the agency’s investigation and on a nuclear deal with the P5+1.” Read the full blog here. http://bit.ly/1Dfgkzs

Not a showstopper - A central sticking point in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program is whether or not Iran should come clean about it’s history with a nuclear weapons program. “Earlier this month, 354 members of US Congress sent Secretary of State John Kerry a letter warning that ‘Iran’s willingness to fully reveal all aspects of its nuclear program is a fundamental test of Iran’s intention to uphold a comprehensive agreement’.”

--As Edward Levine at Al-Monitor observes, “while this issue is rightly a matter of concern, it should not be a litmus test of whether a comprehensive agreement can be reached...Iran’s failure so far to provide full information on its past nuclear activities need not be a showstopper in negotiations on a comprehensive solution. Rather, the agreement itself should combine transparency requirements with a stringent verification regime, tied to P5+1 commitments, that will ensure and confirm Iranian compliance in the years to come.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1vzvYF0

Golden anniversary - China tested its first nuclear weapons 50 years ago today. In a new piece for The Diplomat, Nicolas Giacometti asks where the Chinese nuclear weapons program will go from here.

--“Although China’s declaratory policy has not changed since 1964, the evolving characteristics of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal are broadening the set of nuclear options for its nuclear strategy. This modernization could very well remain within the framework of China’s strict minimum deterrence strategy, but other less likely scenarios include a more fundamental shift towards a more flexible use of nuclear weapons.”

--“Assessing the likelihood of such scenarios could be a topic for future research, and should include such elements as China-U.S. relations, the evolution of the military balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, and China’s overall grand strategy.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/11tjZwa

Podcast - “It’s rare that arms control treaties can envisage the perfect storm of stupidity that occurred in Iraq,” says Jeffrey Lewis in the latest Arms Control Wonk podcast. “Did Donald Rumsfeld do anything right? Why did US soldiers receive poor medical care in Iraq and then after they came home? Why wasn’t the Pentagon prepared to find poorly disposed of chemical weapons in Iraq?” These questions and others as Lewis and Aaron Stein discuss C.J. Chivers’ “The Secret Casualties of Iraq’s Abandoned Chemical Weapons.” Listen to the podcast here. http://bit.ly/1w8UuKM

Quick Hits:

--“Iran Tips Hand About Structure of Secret Services,” by Ali Akbar Dareini for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1sXfEg9

--“Statement from the Arms Control Association on the Prospects for a Nuclear Deal with Iran.” http://bit.ly/1qCgrNH

Events:

--"Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle," featuring Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Center for a New American Security; and Alireza Nader, RAND Corporation. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 9:45-11:00 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," featuring Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 11:00-11:30 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, keynote speech. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. Noon-12:55 p.m., Oct. 20, at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime," featuring Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova, Monterey Institute. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 1:00-1:30 p.m. Oct. 20, At Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Oct. 21, 1:30-2:30 p.m., Weber State University, Elizabeth Hall, Room 229, Ogden, UT.” http://bit.ly/ZY1r6B

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. 1:00-2:00 p.m., Oct. 22, University of Utah, Spencer Hall, Hinckely Caucus Room, 260 Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City. http://bit.ly/1w0diMc

--"Debate: Should the United States Cut its Nuclear Arsenal?" Featuring Adam Mount, Council on Foreign Relations; Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund; Matthew Kroenig, Georgetown University; and Thomas Moore, Wilson Center. Oct. 23, 6:00-8:00 p.m., George Washington University, Room B17, 1957 E St. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1w0dQSi

Dessert:

What armageddon looks like - If you’ve ever wondered what would happen if the 20 biggest US cities were wiped out with nukes, Carter Moore and Gizmodo have you covered. Come for the headline, stay for the maps, leave before the descriptions of future dystopia. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1xVjA04