Assessing the Parchin Blast

On the radar: A couple buildings go missing; Satellite imagery analysis; Iran talks extension floated; Iranian politics getting nasty; Something afoot with Kim; China and arms control; and Aegis ashore in Romania.

October 10, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx

After the blast - “A spectacular explosion on Sunday night outside Tehran took place deep inside the Parchin military base, where Iran produces crucial elements of its missiles and other munitions, raising new questions about whether the blast was an accident or sabotage,” writes David Sanger for The New York Times. Parchin is the site of scrutiny by the P5+1 for its role in researching the explosive components needed to build an atomic bomb.

--“The latest explosion, whether accidental or not, comes at a key moment in Iran’s confrontations with the West. It has resisted a series of efforts by the International Atomic Energy Agency to get answers on about a dozen separate issues, of which the activities at Parchin a decade ago were just one, and among the less sensitive. A trip to Tehran earlier this week, just after the explosion, by I.A.E.A. inspectors failed to make progress on that list, though the Iranians said the discussions were ‘very constructive.’ Iran missed a deadline of Aug. 25 to provide a series of answers to the agency.”

--”Working out those answers will be a part, American and European officials say, of any broader agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear activities. The deadline for that agreement is Nov. 24, and while Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to talk with his Iranian counterpart, Mr. Zarif, in Vienna on Wednesday, there is increasing concern among American negotiators that time is running short to negotiate what would be an enormously complex agreement. Among the hard-liners opposing a broader deal are the Revolutionary Guards, which oversee the activities at Parchin.” http://nyti.ms/ZyfSgZ

--See also: “Finding the Site of the Alleged Explosion at the Parchin Military Complex” by David Albright, Joseph Bermudez, Serena Kelleher-Vergantini and Stephen Wood. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1thQ8TL

Possible extension - “Talks over Iran's nuclear program might be extended if disagreement over remaining issues cannot be resolved by a November deadline, Iran's top negotiator was quoted as saying on Friday, in the first hint an extension was being contemplated.”

--"Iran and the P5+1 (major world powers) are very serious on resolving the remaining disputes until November...but everything including an extension is possible if we cannot reach an agreement," said Abbas Araqchi. Parisa Hafezi has the full story for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1ygKPFr

Hardliners move against Rouhani - “Parliamentary opponents of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani are seeking to impeach more members of his government, broadening a clash between rival power blocs that has already claimed one minister...While the lawmakers say Chitchian’s handling of the nation’s water crisis is behind the attempt to oust him, the challenge pits Rouhani’s administration against conservative politicians who oppose his agenda of diplomatic engagement and fewer restrictions on personal freedoms.” Ladane Nasseri has the full story for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1xy2MMx

Kim’s bum leg - “North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is in firm control of his government but hurt his leg taking part in a military drill, a source with access to the secretive North's leadership said, playing down speculation over the 31-year-old's health and grip on power in the nuclear-capable nation.”

--”He ordered all the generals to take part in drills and he took part too. They were crawling and running and rolling around, and he pulled a tendon," the source told Reuters. Benjamin Kang Lim and James Pearson have the full story. http://reut.rs/1skDote

Dear leader on a milk carton - “Where is Kim Jong-Un? Is he sick? Has there been a coup? Or is North Korea simply trolling DPRK watchers?” Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein sit down with Andrea Berger to explore these questions and others in the latest edition of the Arms Control Wonk podcast. http://bit.ly/1sjF1XV

Tweet - @cirincione: Former U.S. Commander in Korea: Best way to deliver nuclear weapon to Seoul could be “a rickety old wooden airplane.” http://shar.es/1m2m8h

Report - “Engaging China in Nuclear Arms Control” by Alexei Arbatov of the Carnegie Moscow Center. October 9, 2014. http://ceip.org/1CYhL5a

Missile defense in Romania - “The Navy will commission its new missile defense base in southern Romania on Friday, one of two European land-based interceptor sites for a NATO missile shield vehemently opposed by Russia,” reports Steven Beardsley for Stars and Stripes.

--”The base in Deveselu will be the first to feature the Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense system, a land-based version of the sophisticated radar tracking system installed on U.S. warships since 2004. Scheduled to become operational by the end of next year, the base — which is housed within a larger Romanian military installation — will be staffed by several hundred U.S. military, civilian and contract employees. A second site, in Poland, is scheduled to become operational by 2018.” Read the full story here. http://1.usa.gov/1oWtc5n

Quick Hits: TEXT

--“Kim Jong Un, out of sight for 37 days, is a no-show at ceremony,” by Steven Boroweic in The Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1D0WQ1q

--“Insurgents in Pakistan Stepping Up Iran Strikes,” by Thomas Erdbrink in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1s2CDne

--“Iran Says It’s Under Attack by ISIS,” by Jassem Al Salami for The Daily Beast. http://thebea.st/1o16aiL

Events:

--"Can We Abolish Nuclear Weapons Before We Abolish War?," featuring Tad Daley, Center for War/Peace Studies, and former Sen. Harris Wofford (PA). 11:30 a.m.-2:00 p.m., Oct. 14, Women’s National Democratic Club, 1526 New Hampshire Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1oQF2xL

--"Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle," featuring Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Center for a New American Security; and Alireza Nader, RAND Corporation. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 9:45-11:00 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," featuring Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 11:00-11:30 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, keynote speech. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. Noon-12:55 p.m., Oct. 20, at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime," featuring Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova, Monterey Institute. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 1:00-1:30 p.m. Oct. 20, At Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66