New START: Numbers Fluctuate but Verification Remains Invaluable

On the radar: Disappointing numbers, but think bigger picture; Russia’s nukes unaffordable; Parchin explosion analysis; Blocked from Tehran; Oil and Iran’s economy; Israel’s nukes set sail, and where in the world is Kim Jong Un?

October 9, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

The actual problem - “The deployed strategic nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States increased in size over the last six months, according to the latest data exchange under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)...The uptick in strategic arsenals revealed by the most recent data exchange constitutes a surprising and troubling milestone at the mid-point for the seven-year reductions period of the treaty,” writes Greg Theilmann of the Arms Control Association.

--“There is no doubt that Moscow and Washington intend to abide by the weapons ceilings entering into force in 2018, but the new data provides a graphic illustration of missed opportunities for further progress in nuclear arms control. The latest numbers also bode ill for maintaining a healthy interaction between the pursuit of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation goals at the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference convening in the spring of 2015.”

--Arms control critics have been quick to call for suspension of New START in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and violation of the INF treaty. This approach is short-sighted, says Thielmann. “Without the verification provisions and sensitive inspections brought into force with the treaty, we would only be seeing these developments dimly, if at all. Absent precise, treaty-generated information, the intelligence agencies on both sides would end up exaggerating the actual dimensions and implications of the uptick by applying prudent, worst-case analyses. Current confidence in being able to project the upper bounds of Russian forces through 2020 would dissolve. And there would be strong pressure on both sides to further augment existing nuclear forces.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1sfOcsm

Nukes are expensive - ”Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says that Russia will not be able to afford its current level of military spending in the long term, as an economic slowdown amid declining oil prices and Western sanctions forces Moscow to drastically alter the expected funding environment,” reports Matthew Bodner in The Moscow Times.

--“Russia is currently pursuing a 20 trillion ruble ($500 billion) rearmament program through 2020,” including a complete overhaul of its strategic nuclear forces. “Siluanov explained that the current proposals for the program were formulated when Russia's economic outlook was brighter.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1nef4c8

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: Voices frm #China, #Russia, #Romania debate whether arms control arrangements shld include limits on missile defense http://ow.ly/Cv9G8

Parchin blast not PMD related - “The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said it had obtained commercially available satellite imagery... [that] indicated the site of the possible blast was not the same Parchin location where the [IAEA] suspects that Iran, possibly a decade ago, carried out explosives tests that could be relevant for developing a nuclear arms capability,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters.

--The think tank’s imagery analysis “indicated an explosion could have taken place at a southern section of Parchin. Several signatures that coincide with those expected from an explosion site are visible here," it said on its website." Two buildings that were present in August 2014 are no longer there, while a third building appears to be severely damaged. In total at least six buildings appear damaged or destroyed." Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1pUU7Pc

Impasse - “Talks between the U.N. nuclear watchdog and Iran this week appear not to have substantively advanced an investigation into suspected atomic bomb research by Tehran, potentially dimming chances for a broader deal between the Iranians and big powers,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. “Diplomats in the Austrian capital said it seemed that very little, if any, progress had been achieved.” http://reut.rs/1oUiTyv

Tweet - @tparsi: Former British IAEA Amb: Accepting 9,000 #Iran centrifuges is better than having no deal at all @LobeLog @cirincione http://bit.ly/1EpuijO

Access denied - “A United Nations atomic agency official recently denied entry into Iran as part of a team investigating suspected bomb research is believed to be an American nuclear weapons expert,” anonymous diplomatic sources have told Reuters. The International Atomic Energy Agency last month said Iran denied a visa for one member of an IAEA delegation that visited Tehran on Aug. 31 to try to advance a long-running inquiry into what the U.N. agency calls the possible military dimensions of the country's nuclear program.” The IAEA has declined to comment on the allegations. Fredrik Dahl has the full story. http://reut.rs/1qoG1F1

Getting crude - “Oil prices have been tumbling for weeks—they were at twenty-seven-month lows this morning and fell further throughout the day…[And] the man who should be most uneasy is Iranian president Hassan Rouhani,” argues John Allen Gay in The National Interest. Iran’s current budget is designed for an oil price of $100 and oil exports of 1.5 million barrels per day. Below those levels, Iran’s delicate economic recovery may be in question, as well the political calculus behind a potential nuclear deal. Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1vQVYbs

Israel’s worst kept secret heads to sea - Israel is about to receive the fifth of six state of the art “Dolphin” class submarine from Germany, significantly boosting the naval presence of the small nation. However, Israel’s naval ambitions seem to extend far beyond increasing the size of it’s navy. “Reports indicate that they [the Dolphins] will carry a portion of Israel’s nuclear deterrent, in the form of nuclear-armed, submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). Theoretically, this gives Israel the third leg (after ballistic missiles and fighter-bombers) of the nuclear triad.” In his new column in The National Interest, Robert Farley asks “do the Dolphins provide a practical deterrent?” http://bit.ly/1pUXcPg

Where’s Kim - “North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has not been seen in public for more than a month, generating speculation that his absence is due to failing health or political intrigue. Given the paucity of information, keeping track of Kim is tougher than winning at three-card monte, and the stakes are much higher: the potential instability of a nuclear-armed nation.”

--“Is North Korea on the brink of collapse and turmoil? Probably not. But with all power residing in Kim, the government may be just one bullet or heart attack away from a crisis. Here's hoping Washington is not so distracted by events in Syria, Iraq and Ukraine that it fails to keep a keen eye on Pyongyang.” Read Bruce Klinger’s full op-ed in the Los Angeles Times here. http://lat.ms/1xtnzAC

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: If Kim Jong Un doesn't show up tomorrow, we can assume something is really amiss in #DPRK http://ow.ly/CviU4

Quick Hits:

--“New star emerges in North Korea amid speculation over Kim,” report James Pearson and Jack Kim for Reuters. http://reut.rs/10V4Cfv

--“Disappearance of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un could ease path to peace, coup or no,” argues Paul French in Reuters. http://reut.rs/10TpO5E

Events:

--“Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons Aboard MV Cape Ray,” featuring Timothy Blades, Edgewood Chemical Biological Center. 12:30-2:00 p.m., Oct. 10, National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, 300 Fifth Ave. SW, Fort McNair, Washington. Off the record. RSVP to Nima Gerami at Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--"Can We Abolish Nuclear Weapons Before We Abolish War?," featuring Tad Daley, Center for War/Peace Studies, and former Sen. Harris Wofford (PA). 11:30 a.m.-2:00 p.m., Oct. 14, Women’s National Democratic Club, 1526 New Hampshire Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1oQF2xL

--"Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle," featuring Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Center for a New American Security; and Alireza Nader, RAND Corporation. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 9:45-11:00 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," featuring Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 11:00-11:30 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, keynote speech. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. Noon-12:55 p.m., Oct. 20, at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime," featuring Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova, Monterey Institute. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 1:00-1:30 p.m. Oct. 20, At Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

Dessert: Five crazy theories that could totally explain North Korea. Daniel W. Drezner has the “scoop” for the The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1shN1ds